The post Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects for 2024 appeared first on Project Digest.
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FB | CB | CU | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 70 | 50/55 | 60 | 55 | 60 |
Background: The Tigers, perhaps more so than any other organization, love taking pitching early in the draft and they’ve never shied away from teenage arms either. The club’s nabbed high school hurlers like Matt Manning, Beau Burrows, Jacob Turner, and Rick Porcello – all of whom joined the organization as first rounders since 2007. Jackson Jobe, a fellow prep arm, may turn out to be the best of the bunch. Snagged with the third overall pick in 2021, the Heritage Hall School product, who commanded a hefty $6.9 million deal, was – at one point – in the running to become the first high school right-hander to go #1 overall. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound youngster wouldn’t make his debut until the following summer, jumping straight into the fire of full season ball with the Lakeland Flying Tigers. He would make 18 starts with the club’s Low-A affiliate, throwing 61.2 innings with 71 punch outs against 25 walks. He spent the last couple of weeks squaring off against the High-A competition. Jobe would miss the opening few months of the 2023 season – courtesy of lumbar spine inflammation. Finally healthy in early June, he would make a tune-up start in the Complex League, another six games in Low-A and then moved back up to High-A. His final start – which happened to be of the dominant variety – came with the Erie SeaWolves in the Eastern League. Overall, he would finish the year with a dazzling 2.81 ERA, averaging 11.8 strikeouts and just 0.8 walks per nine innings. (That isn’t a typo; he walked just six hitters all year). Jobe continued his dominance in the Arizona Fall League as well, posting a 19-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15.2 innings of work.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Jobe, like a lot of young fireballers, lacks a strong feel for the strike zone, but shows the athleticism and flexibility that allows it to project to average. If the command can creep up into above-average territory, the sky’s the limit for the former third overall pick.
Scouting Report: Jobe eschewed his above-average curveball, which was an above-average offering, for a newly minted, late-darting cutter. It’ll flash above-average at times, though it’s still in the “need to find consistency” stage. The rest of the arsenal is still wickedly daunting: mid-90s fastball, easily a plus offering, reaching as high as 98 mph during his final start of the year. His changeup isn’t talked about enough, showing tremendous velocity separation (about 10- to 12-mph) with some downward tumble and arm-side fade. The biggest development for the former third overall pick is his feel for the strike zone. He was impeccably precision-like in 2023. He has the chance to ascend towards actual ace status atop a big league rotation. He could step into the big leagues now and perform like a mid-rotation arm.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50/55 | 50/60 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: In a deep draft, particularly coming from the collegiate ranks, Max Clark’s athleticism and potential clearly stood out as one of the top prep prospects in 2023. And it’s readily apparent just by glancing at the hardware he’s accrued. A two-sport dynamo, Clark, who has also starred on the gridiron as a game-changing wide receiver, earned not one, not two, but three IndianaGatorade Player of the Year awards, as well as capturing the National Gatorade Player of the Year award as a senior. During his tenure at Franklin Community High School, Clark earned his first Gatorade award as a sophomore in 2021, batting .450 with six dingers, and 30 RBIs while also tallying a 0.84 ERA with 120 punch outs in only 50 innings of work. A year later, during his second award-winning season, the 6-foot-1, 190-pound lefty mashed .577 with nine homeruns and 32RBIs at the dish, and he continued his dominance on the mound as well (16 IP, 39 K, 0.44 ERA). Prior to his senior season, the Vanderbilt University commit played on Team USA’s 18U squad and batted .280/.357/.440 during the World Cup. Last season, Clark raised the bar even further by hitting .646 with six homeruns, 33 RBIs and 45 runs scored. Detroit drafted the burgeoning star with the third overall pick last summer, signing him to a massive deal worth $7,697,500. Clark split his abbreviated debut between the Complex League and Lakeland, hitting .224/.383/.377 in 107 plate appearances.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Clark hits every check box needed to be a top prospect: elite, explosive bat speed, plus arm, power, plus hit tool, and he’s projected to not only stay at an up-the-middle position but also provide value there. He hasn’t begun scratching the surface of tapping into his plus power potential. The Grizzly Cub star also showed an incredibly patient approach at the plate throughout his amateur career well, at one point walking 40 times (including 28 international free passes) during his senior season. Lean, but muscular. Twitchy. There’s the potential to develop into a Mike Cameron-type performer with a better hit tool.”
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026/2027
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
60 | 55 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Four years ago it would have been insane to think that Spencer Torkelson, one of the most lethal bats in college baseball history and the #1 overall pick, would not be the best player taken by Detroit that summer. But baseball’s a crazy game and Colt Keith just won’t stop hitting. A fifth round pick out of Biloxi High School, Keith, who joined the Motown Kitties for just $500,000, made abbreviated stops in the Complex League, Low-A, and High-A during his debut season in 2021. The next year the lefty-swinging second / third baseman dominated the High-A competition (.301/.370/.544 with 14 doubles, three triples, and nine homeruns) and absolutely manhandled the Arizona Fall League by slugging .344/.463/.541. Last season, Keith continued to breeze through Double-A and Triple-A. He opened the year up with Erie by hitting .325/.391/.585 34 extra-base knocks in only 59 games. And he continued to swing a hot stick after his promotion up to Toledo, batting .287/.369/.521 with another 34 extra-base hits. The former fifth rounder would finish the year with an aggregate .306/.380/.552 slash line, belting out 38 doubles, three triples, and 27 homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his aggregate production surpassed the league average threshold by a whopping 40%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Keith went from a line-driving hitter during his first pro season to a legitimate power-hitter with a similar approach from at bat to at bat. Really good looking, silky smooth swing. Keith shoots the ball all over the diamond without regard. If everything clicks just right – which is a long shot – there’s some Justin Turner / Jeff McNeil upside.
Scouting Report: With regard to his production in Double-A, the minor’s biggest challenge, consider the following:
Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters that posted a wRC+ total north of 160 with one Double-A club (min. 250 PA): Mookie Betts, Corbin Carroll, Mike Moustakas, Austin Hayes, Coby May, Oswaldo Arcia, and – of course – Colt Keith.
Pretty good company, needless to say, so now let’s look at how his numbers stack up in Triple-A:
Since 2006, here’s the list of 21-year-old hitters that posted a 115- to 125-wRC+ with a double-digit walk rate, and an 18% to 22% strikeout rate with one club in Triple-A (min. 275 PA): B.J. Upton, Carter Kieboom, Jake Bauers, and Colt Keith.
A little less impressive company this time. The power Keith was hinting at in 2022 bloomed into a reliable above-average weapon last summer. He hits lefties and righties equally well. He hits for power and average. He’s hit at every level including the Arizona Fall League. He’s hit against older competition. He just…hits. Very patient, mature approach at the plate. Keith, who saw a steady diet of breaking balls last season, owns explosive bat speed and creates plenty of loft that likely leads to 25 to 30 homeruns at the big league level. Plus hit tool, above-average power – the bat will play anywhere, but the ability to play a decent second or third base makes him a perennial All-Star candidate.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 55 | 30 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: One of the best bats in college baseball over his final two seasons at Texas Tech. Jung, almost impossibly so, was able to step out of his older brother’s looming shadow and establish himself as a legitimate blue chip prospect, despite the awkward setup at the plate. Either way, though, the Tigers liked what they saw and selected him with the 12th overall pick two years ago and they immediately placed him on the fast-track to the big leagues. Jung made his professional debut in High-A and he looked completely overmatched as he hit .232/.373/.333 with just eight extra-base knocks in 30 contests. Last season, Detroit sent the lefty-swinging infielder back down to West Michigan and – unsurprisingly – the results were much better as he hit .254/.377/.465 with 34 extra-base hits in 81 games. The former Red Raider spent the rest of the year blossoming in Double-A (.284/.373/.563). Overall, he hit .265/.376/.502 with 27 doubles, two triples, 28 homers, and five stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production surpassed the league average mark by 43%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: It’s a peculiar swing, but it’s short and lightning quick. Jung has above-average power potential, a little bit of footspeed, and he’s had no trouble with better college-age competition. The ceiling is higher if he can stick to second base. Ben Zobrist-type offensive performer.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only five 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in Double-A (min. 200 PA): 150 to 160 wRC+ and a strikeout rate greater than 25%. Those five hitters: Nick Pratto, Dylan Cozens, Kevin Padlo, Jack Suwinski, and Jace Jung.
Jung completely reworked the setup and approach at the plate, which isn’t surprising. There’s still a little bit of Cal Ripken / Chuck Knoblauch sag to the bat at the initial onset, but it’s significantly less noticeable. Great bat speed and the power definitely took a leap forward as well. But the overall hit tool is going limit his overall offensive ceiling. His batting average is going to consistently sit in the .235- to .250-range at the big league level. 25-homer thump. Above-average patience. Surprisingly strong defensive numbers / ability. Max Muncy type vibes at the keystone. Detroit also had him experimenting at the hot corner in the Arizona Fall League too.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 60 | 65 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Big, strapping right-handed pitchers and the University of Texas are practically synonymous at this point. Guys like Roger Clemens or Burt Hooton or Calvin Schiraldi or Huston Street or Shane Reynolds or Brandon Workman or Corey Knebel. You probably get the point. And the Tigers may just have the next one in line. Taken with the 32nd overall pick three years ago, which was a bit of surprise because he was expected to go earlier, Madden split his debut showing between West Michigan and Erie the following year. He tossed 122.2 innings – because that’s what Longhorn hurlers just do – while averaging 9.8 strikeouts and just 2.8 walks per nine innings. Last season, the front office bounced him back to the crucible that is Double-A for a longer look. He was nothing short of brilliant. Throwing 118.0 innings across 25 starts and a relief outing, he posted a 146-to-50 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 3.43 ERA, a 3.94 FIP, and a 3.46 xFIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Madden continues to throw quality strikes, which wasn’t the case early in his collegiate career. A year after the draft, the 6-foot-2, 215-pound hurler still has the makings a #3-type arm. He’s just one step closer to accomplishing it.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, five 23-year-old hurlers met the following criteria with one team in any Double-A league (min. 75 IP): 28% to 31% strikeout percentage with a 9% to 12% walk percentage. Those five hurlers: Matt Barnes, Andrew Abbott, David Festa, Cole Sands, and former Longhorn ace Ty Madden.
Madden was so absurdly dominant when I scouted him, firing off mid- to upper-90s heat, a wickedly unfair slider that simply can’t be taught, a plus curveball that, quite frankly would be the best offering for a lot of pitchers but hardly registers after watching him snap off his slider, and a decent changeup. He’s living around the strike zone, though the command backed up a smidge from the previous year. I have to be frank: I absolutely love Madden. He could have a Tanner Bibee / Gavin Williams type impact for the Tigers in 2024. Well-built, Madden should have no issues throwing 200-plus innings year after a year. If he starts the year in Motown he’llbe contender for the AL Rookie of the Year.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 40/45 | 35 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: A terrific hitter during his career at Bonner-Prendergast High School, McGonigle, who committed to SEC-based Auburn University prior to his freshman high school season, quickly made up for a lost 2020 COVID-year by mashing .517/.6500/1.034 as a sophomore, belting out five doubles, two triples, and seven homeruns. His junior season with the Catholic high school was nearly as spectacular as he slugged .457/.582/.975 with five doubles, two triples, and 11 homeruns with just two strikeouts. He spent the summer playing on Team USA’s 18U squad, batting .240/.367/.520 with two doubles, one triple, and a homerun. He finished the brief stint with more walks (5) than strikeouts (3). McGonigle raised the bar to a career year in 2023. Appearing in 25 games with the Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania academy, McGonigle batted .530/.690/1.045 with eight doubles, four triples, and six homeruns (with just a pair of strikeouts). Detroit selected the lefty-swinging middle infielder with the 37th overall pick, signing him to an above-slot deal worth $2.85 million. McGonigle batted .315/.452/.411 with four doubles and a dinger during his abbreviated debut in the Complex League and Low-A.
Scouting Report: Idolizing Chase Utley throughout his childhood, the lefty-swinging infielder shows an incredibly patient approach at the plate. Sneaky power from a 5-10, sub-190-pound prospect, McGonigle has the potential to develop into a 15- to 20-homer threat as he continues to mature. Wide base, beautiful, picturesque swing with natural loft and bat speed. Defensively, he’s likely to slide over to the right side of the keystone. Tremendous pick by the Tigers.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2027
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FB | CB | SL/CU | CH | Command | Overall |
50 | 60 | 50 | 45 | 50 | 45 |
Background: The front office did well in the 2020 draft, adding Spencer Torkelson, an above-average though not elite power bat; Colt Keith, and Wilmer Flores, an undrafted free agent out of Arizona Western College with less than a dozen innings on his resume. A handful of years later and Flores established himself as one of the better, more underrated arms in the minor leagues. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound right-hander spent the majority of his debut season in Low-A in 2021. A year later he blitzed through High-A and settled in nicely with Erie for 19 strong starts. The front office sent Flores – almost inexplicably – back to Double-A for some additional seasoning in 2023. After getting lit up in his second and third starts with the SeaWolves (4.1 IP, 13 ER), he got his legs underneath him and righted the ship. A hamstring injury knocked him out of commission for several weeks late in the year. Excluding his three-game tune-up with West Michigan, Flores posted an 82-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 80.2 innings in Double-A. He spent the fall with the Salt River Rafters, fanning 22 and walking 4 in 18.0 IP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s #4-type upside here thanks to his command and three solid pitches.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, eight 22-year-old hurlers met the following criteria with one club in Double-A (min. 75 IP): 23.5% to 25.5% strikeout percentage with an 8.5% to 10.5% walk percentage. Those eight hurlers: Zack Wheeler, Wily Peralta, Jorge Lopez, Jordan Balazovic, Garrett Olson, Kodi Medeiros, Victor Mederos, and Wilmer Flores.
It’s a bit surprising that Detroit sent Flores back to Double-A, but he looked the same as he did the previous season: average fastball that sits in the 93- to 94-mph range, a plus yacker of a curveball, and an average-ish (maybe slightly better) slider. The changeup is thrown rarely and remains fringy. Flores continues to add and subtract from his curveball which essentially adds another weapon into his solid arsenal. He has similar mannerism as Mike Clevenger. Flores has a backend starter ceiling.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: For years Meadows, the club’s high-priced second round pick from 2018, was cast into the “toolsy, but won’t ever figure it out” pile of prospects. He looked dreadful during his stint in Low-A the following season, batting a putrid .221/.296/.312 while showing a 30-grade hit tool and matching power. And after jumping up to High-A in 2021, the lefty-swinging center fielder remained remarkably disappointing: .209/.290/.330 with 15 doubles, two triples, eight homeruns, and nine stolen bases (but he was caught eight times). Still, though, the front office continued Meadows’ march to eventual flame-out like clockwork. He spent the opening couple weeks in High-A, hitting a Meadows-like .230/.288/.525, before moving up to the crucible that Double-A is. And he – somehow – figured it out. He blossomed into a bonafide prospect again, bashing .275/.354/.466 with 43 extra-base hits in only 113 games. Meadows spent the majority of last season with the club’s Triple-A affiliate, hitting a solid .256/.337/.474 with a career best 27 doubles, seven triples, 19 homeruns, and 19 stolen bases (in only 21 total attempts). According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 1% below the league average. He spent the last several weeks with the club in Detroit, hitting .232/.331/.368 but managed to provide enough value on defense to be an asset.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The tools were always in place for Meadows – speed, above-average power, solid contact rates, defense, no major platoon issues (surprisingly). Except now, though, Meadows is actually barreling up the baseball. He’s not likely going to be a star – though, again, the tools are there – but Meadows’ resurgent 2022 season all but guarantees him several looks at the big league level. There’s plenty of skepticism, but one more similar season and Meadows could be a fringy average starter.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in Triple-A (min. 350 PA): 95 to 105 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a K-rate between 22.5% to 26.5%. The two bats: Michael Reed and Parker Meadows.
The offensive step forward was imperative to save Meadows’ professional career, but it’s still not enough to become more than a slightly below-average big league hitter. Average power, above-average speed, and the patient approach he showed two years ago proved to be a repeatable skill. The package as a whole doesn’t look overly pretty – and he’s likely best suited for some type of super-sub fourth outfield gig – but there’s enough to be a low end starter, maybe a smidgeon more depending how the BABIP bounces.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40 | 50 | 30 | 50 | 55 | 45 |
Background: The Ohio State University is far from a baseball powerhouse. The Buckeyes have graduated just five players to the professional ranks as a first or second round pick since 2006. Peculiarly enough, Detroit has been the home to two of those selections: Ronnie Borquin, who I personally saw in college (I’m a Buckeye) and looked every bit of a big league hitter, and Dillon Dingler. The 38th overall pick four years ago, Dingler’s been a mainstay among Detroit’s better, well-known prospects since joining the organization – despite a questionable hit tool. And the 2023 season was much the same. Dingler got off to a late start to the year, thanks to a knee injury, so the front office sent him to Low-A to get his feet back underneath him. After a brief eight-game cameo Dingler popped back up in Double-A. He would bat a rock solid .253/.372/.462 with 20 extra-base hits before spending the last month of games in Triple-A. In total, the 6-foot-3, 210-pound backstop batted .256/.361/.478 with 22 doubles, one triple, and a career best 16 homeruns in 89 games between all three levels.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: When it comes to offensive approach, Detroit almost has a predisposed requisite for their catchers. 40-grade bat, above-average power, average-ish patience, swing-and-miss issues. Eric Haase fits this to a tee. Jake Rogers, once the top catching prospect in their system, is cut from a similar mold. And now, too, does Dillon Dingler.
Scouting Report: Again, you know what you’re going to get out of Dingler: batting averages in the .240, 15 or so homeruns, and some stellar defense behind the plate. And that’s exactly what he did last season. Eric Haase, James McCann, Jake Rogers, and, now, Dillon Dingler. In terms of ceiling, think: .240/.310/.420.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 65 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Plucked off theinternational free agent market in 2017, Montero took a little bit to get going at the onset of his career, but he’s typically been a peripheral underdog since then. During his first stint stateside, 2019, the 6-foot-1, 145-pound right-hander averaged 9.3 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine innings between the old Gulf Coast and New York-Penn Leagues. After minor league action returned from it COVID hiatus, Montero posted a 59-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61.1 innings with West Michigan. The following year, 2022, Detroit – in a bit of head-turning move – sent him back to High-A and he nearly repeated the performance in roughly 40 more innings, averaging 8.8 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Last season, Montero started – again – in High-A but jumped up to Erie after four starts, but his stint in Double-A was brief (just 15 starts) before setting his sights on Triple-A. Montero would finish the year with career best 127.1 innings of work, averaging a career best 11.3 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He finished the year with an aggregate 4.66 ERA.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Very similar arsenal – without the refinement – as Dylan Smith. Montero sports an average-ish 93 mph fastball – which he relies heavily on. He’ll mix in a pair of breaking balls: a curveball with beautiful 12-6 shape and a power slider that generates some awkward swings. The slider flashes above-average at times and it’s the type of offering that a pitching savvy organization would have him focus on, but Detroit hasn’t proven to be that type of organization, at least not yet. He’ll also mix in a below-average changeup.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, seven 22-year-old hurlers met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 60 IP): 28% to 31% strikeout percentage and a 9% to 11% walk percentage. Those seven hurlers: Blake Snell, Gavin Williams, Mike Minor, Touki Toussaint, Curtis Taylor, Royber Salinas, and – of course – Keider Montero.
Montero continues to just…progress and get better. His fastball was sitting in the 93-94 mph range and touching 96 mph. His curveball was sharply bending at about 3200 RPMs, a plus slider and an average changeup. His weight, listed at just 145 pounds, is also significantly higher as well. Montero’s working himself into position to be a solid backed starting option, potentially as early as midway through 2024. He’s going to open a lot of eyes when he toes a big league rubber.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
The post Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects for 2024 appeared first on Project Digest.
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
70 | 40/45 | 50/40 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Colorado paid a pretty penny to secure the services of Amador off the international free agent market a couple years ago, handing the then-16-year-old youngster a hefty seven-figure bonus in 2019. Unfortunately for Amador, as well as the ball club, the switch-hitting Dominican wouldn’t make his professional debut until two years later, thanks in large part due to COVID. But Amador quickly made up for any lost developmental time as he batted .299/.394/.445 in the Complex League in 2021 and then followed up with a .292/.415/.445 showing in Low-A the next year. Last season, Amador was plagued – considerably – by the injury bug. He missed the opening couple weeks of the year due to an undisclosed injury and then underwent surgery to repair a broken hamate bone after suffering an injury in late July. He would eventually pop back up in the Complex League for a quick tour in mid-August before the front office brass haphazardly bumped him up to Double-A for the last few weeks of the year. Including the rehab appearances, Amador batted .287/.380/.495 for the year.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Part of the “new breed” of prospects that’s becoming more en vogue, simply put, Amador doesn’t swing-and-miss all that much, posting a swinging strike percentage of just 6.94% and a 12.1% strikeout rate. Unlike a lot of extreme bat-to-ball, contact-based hitters, he packs a punch as well, showcasing average power to go along with plus speed and a great eye at the plate.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 250 PA): 140 to 150 wRC+ and a K-rate below 14%. Those three sticks: Luis Campusano, Tyson Gillies, and Adael Amador.
Amador feasted on the hitter-friendly confines of Spokane’s home field. But the young switch-hitter possesses a lightning quick bat and some of the best bat-to-ball skills in the entire minor leagues. The surprisingly part of his toolkit is the thump he continues to display. He’ll never be confused with Babe Ruth, but it’s enough pop to keep pitchers honest. Defensively, he’s likely to slide over to the right side of the keystone. There’s a chance for a plus-plus hit tool, 30 doubles, eight to 12 homeruns, and a dozen stolen bases. Big league ceiling: .290/.340/.415
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: A highly touted – and highly decorated – prospect coming out of Greenbrier High School, Dollander was a three-time All-Region Selection, First Team All-Columbia County, and was eventually ranked as the eighth best player in the state of Georgia by PBR Georgia. Perfect Game also ranked him twice as a preseason All-American prior to his junior and senior campaigns, as well. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander opened up his collegiate career with a stint through the Sun Belt Conference with Georgia Southern, going 4-and-3 while averaging 11.8 strikeouts and 5.1 walks per nine innings. The native Georgian would leave his home state and head to the land of the Volunteers prior to his sophomore season. And, simply put, he became a key cog in Tennessee’s baseball machine. Dollander would sparkle during his first season in the SEC, throwing 79.0 innings with a downright dominating 108-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.39 ERA. The hard-throwing hurler’s final season didn’t go as smoothly, though. Making a career best 16 starts, Dollander tossed 86.0 innings, averaging 12.3 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings. But his ERA bloated to 4.50 – thanks in large part to his propensity to give up dingers. He gave up a whopping 14 homers. For the second time in as many seasons, the club snagged a Volunteer in the first round, using the ninth pick on the SEC ace. The two sides came to an agreement on a deal worth $5,716,900.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft scouting report:
“Dollander’s sophomore campaign placed him among some rarified company. Consider the following:
Between 2011 and 2022, only four pitchers averaged at least 12 strikeouts and fewer than 2.0 walks per nine innings in the SEC (min. 75 IP): Casey Mize (twice), Paul Skenes, Kevin Kopps (the 2021 Golden Spikes Award winner), and – of course – Chase Dollander.
But the Tennessean ace’s command faltered a bit during his junior campaign. Here’s a look at his 2023 production:
Since 2011, only three SEC pitchers averaged more than 12 punch outs and between 2.75 and 3.25 walks per nine innings (min. 75 IP): Kumar Rocker, Doug Nikhazy, and Chase Dollander.
Sporting a deep, quality four-pitch mix. Dollander’s fastball sits in the mid- to upper-90s. It’s a plus pitch by velocity alone, but I don’t think it’s going to have the same type of effect on professional hitters – particularly once he gets into the middle levels of the minor leagues. I just feel like there’s a chance that his fastball plays out about as well as Mark Appel’s. He complements it with a wipeout – albeit inconsistent – slider, a solid average curveball, and a very good changeup. Dollander looked more like a strike-thrower than a quality-pitch thrower during his junior campaign. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers, who’ve placed a priority on top collegiate arms recently, snag him with the fourth pick.”
Just to reiterate: I think there’s most risk here than people think.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50/55 | 40/45 | 60/45 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Colorado’s Double-A affiliate, the Hartford Yard Goats, had any interesting dichotomy going on last season. The roster was seemingly loaded at various points with the likes of Adael Amador, Zac Veen, Jordan Beck, Yanquiel Fernandez, Sterlin Thompson, Hunter Goodman, Gabriel Hughes, Joe Rock, Carson Palmquist, and supremely underrated backstop Drew Romo. And, yet, despite an impressive collection of talent and tools, the Yard Goats somehow finished the year with a completely disappointing 57-76 record, good enough for last place in Eastern League. The disappointment, though, had nothing to do with Romo’s performance at the plate or behind it. The 35th overall pick in 2020, the Woodlands High School product batted a rock solid .254/.313/.440 during his first stint in the fires of Double-A, belting out 18 doubles, two triples, and a career best 13 homeruns. He spent the last couple of games teeing off against the competition in Triple-A (.353/.389/.529). His combined production topped the league average by 4%, per Weighted Runs Created Plus.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Great looking line-driving hitting swing. Short, fast. It’s going to pepper balls from foul line to foul line. He’s probably not going to be a star but he should be an above-average bat for 10 years.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only a quartet of 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 300 PA): 98 to 108 wRC+, a 16% to 20% strikeout rate, and a 7% to 9% walk rate. Those four bats: Tim Beckham, Austin Romine, Ty Morrison, and – of course – Drew Romo.
The story on Romo isn’t so much about the standout tools, but it’s more about the lack of weaknesses throughout his whole game. The switch-hitting backstop makes consistent contact, flashes decent power, runs a little bit, and plays solid defense behind the dish. He’s not going to be a flashy big leaguer, but it’s the foundation for a 10-year-starter. Interestingly enough, Romo got off to a slow start to the year, batting .197/.243/.299 through his first 37 games. After that, though, he slugged .300/.363/.541 over his remaining 58 contests. He’s going to be the guy that quietly goes about his business and at the end of the year you’ll be surprised. Ceiling: .265/.330/.410.
Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 60 | 30 | 45 | 55 | 50 |
Background: An amateur free agent import from Havana, Cuba, the Rockies convinced Fernandez to join the perpetually re-building club for a little less than $300,000 in 2019. Almost immediately the investment in the young right fielder started returning dividends. Fernandez mashed the Dominican Summer League competition in 2021 (.333/.406/.531), and manhandled the Low-A competition the following season (.284/.340/.507). Last season started out in similar fashion for Fernandez: he batted a scorching .319/.355/.605 in 58 games with Spokane. But his dominance quickly faded. The young Cuban outfielder was exposed during his first extended stint in Double-A, hitting a paltry .206/.262/.362. Fernandez finished the 2023 season with an aggregate .265/.313/.486 triple-slash line, belting out 25 doubles, three triples, and a career-best 25 homeruns in 117 total games.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Fernandez shows an intriguing toolkit not highlighted by a lot of the club’s other top young bats. It’s a power-oriented approach with little speed.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in High-A, consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in High-A (min. 250 PA): 143 to 153 wRC+, a 16% to 20% strikeout rate, and a sub-8% walk rate. Those three hitters: Ryan Mountcastle, Victor Robles, and Yanquiel Fernandez.
Now let’s see how his numbers stack out in Double-A:
Since 2006, only two 20-year-old batters posted a wRC+ mark between 65 and 75 with one club in Double-A (min. 200 PA): Carlos Triunfel and Yanquiel Fernandez.
Easily the best the in-game and raw power in the system. Fernandez can absolutely obliterate mistakes across the plate, depositing them in the upper parts of the outfield bleachers. With that being said, he definitely took full advantage of Spokane’s hitter-friendly home field during his stint in High-A last season. Fernandez has always had consistent contact numbers throughout his career, but his whiff rate exploded to nearly one-third of his plate appearances in Double-A. He’s tracking like a low batting average / low OBP power hitter. He’ll add some value on the defensive spectrum, so the overall package should be enough to keep him in the lineup full time.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40/45 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Thereare very few organizations that love Tennessee Volunteers as much the Colorado Rockies. The Mile High ball club has selected a total of nine Vols; their first alum being Hall of Famer Todd Helton with the eighth overall pick in 1995. But the Rockies have been quite familiar with the SEC powerhouse over the past couple of seasons as they’ve nabbed Jordan Beck in the opening round two years ago and then followed that up with Seth Halvorsen six rounds last. Last season they used the ninth pick on right-hander Chase Dollander. Beck, the 38th overall pick in 2022, was a consistent power bat in one of the nation’s top lineups over the duration of his career, leaving the school as .284/.366/.553 hitter with 36 doubles, five triples, and 34 homeruns in only 149 games. The Alabama native continued to swing an impressive stick during his abbreviated debut that summer as well, slugging .296/.431/.477 with 10 extra-base knocks in 26 games between the Arizona Complex League and Fresno. Last season, Beck continued to hop, skip, and jump his way through the minors as he spent 76 games with the club’s High-A affiliate (Spokane) and another 50 contests with Hartford. He finished the year with an aggregate .271/.364/.503 slash line with 34 doubles, two triples, 25 homeruns, and 20 stolen bases (in 25 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by an impressive 34% — though most of his damage was done in High-A.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Big time power no ballpark can contain when he fully gets into one. It’s going to come down to the hit tool. If he makes enough contact, he looks like a low end middle-of-the-lineup thumper. If not, he’s got Quad-A written all over him.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in Double-A last season, consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 200 PA): 103 to 113 wRC+ with a strikeout rate between 30% and 34%. Those three bats: Connor Lien, Pablo Aliendo, and Jordan Beck, the former Volunteer of Tennessee.
Again, it’s all going to come down to the hit tool, but he does have a lot of the other skills already in place. Beck breezed through stints in Low-A and High-A the past two seasons, making consistent, loud contact. But his bat was exposed in the fires of Double-A. Long arms and chiseled like a prototypical run-producing corner outfielder, Beck’s swing tends to get long and he struggled to consistently square up the ball as well. There are enough secondary skills – patience, speed, defense, power – to buoy the hit tool, even if it hovers somewhere between a 40- and 45-grade skill. In terms of big league ceiling, think something along the lines of a .245/.330/.450. Brent Rooker vibes.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 50/55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: To put it frankly, Veen had one of the more disappointing showings in 2023, not only in the Rockies’ farm system, but, perhaps, in all of the minor leagues. A tooled up outfielder out of Spruce Creek High School, Colorado snagged Veen with the ninth overall pick in 2020, directly ahead of Reid Detmers and Garrett Crochet. The Florida-born youngster hit the ground running during his debut in 2021, slugging .301/.399/.501 with 46 extra-base knocks and 36 stolen bases with the Fresno Grizzlies. The following season, 2022, Veen continued to impressive during his extended stint in High-A, batting .269/.368/.439, but he looked dreadfully underprepared in 34 games in Double-A (.177/.262/.234). But the 6-foot-3, 190-pound right fielder seemed to right the ship during his jaunt through the Arizona Fall League, slugging .333/.444/.444 in 21 games with the Salt River Rafters. The front office, unsurprisingly, sent him back to Double-A for some additional seasoning. And, well, let’s just say he’s probably going back there in 2024. Veen batted .209/.304/.308 with just seven doubles, two triples, two homeruns, and 22 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his production was 28% below the league average. He hit the injury list in mid-June and would eventually succumb to surgery to repair the extensor capri ulnaris (ECU) tendon in his left wrist.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The former first round pick might be the best base stealer in the minor leagues and likely belongs on a short list for top base stealer at any level. Plus speed. And he’s just tapping into his above-average power potential. Very wiry and thin, Veen is far from maxing out physically. There’s plus raw power already. Throw in plus glovework in right field and Veen, like some of his farm system counterparts, looks like a potential star.
Scouting Report: An Extensor Capri Ulnaris (ECU) is a new one for me personally. And according to an MLB article by Thomas Harding (06/22/2023) Veen had been dealing with the issue for a while. The same piece quoted Veen’s agent, Jason Romano, as saying, “He just lost all kind of ability to stay through the ball, because the top hand just gives out and gets weak.” It makes sense that a lingering injury like this would have significantly hampered Veen’s ability to hit. Assuming he can get back to his baseline performance in High-A in 2022, Veen still has the makings of an impact player on both sides of the ball. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .260/.340/.440 with 25 stolen bases.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 70 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: There’s an underappreciated amount of talent brewing within the Rockies’ farm system – on both sides of the ball. Whether or not the organization can bring that talent to fruition is a whole other question. But the Rockies’ youngsters were hit hard last season with either disappointing campaigns or arm injuries. Three of the club’s top arms – Jordy Vargas, Gabriel Hughes, and Jackson Cox – all succumbed to Tommy John surgery by midseason. Signed out of the Dominican Republic for $500,000 in 2021, Vargas was absurdly dominant during his debut in the foreign rookie league later that year, posting a sparkling 1.30 ERA while averaging 11.9 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 across 34.2 innings of work. The following season, 2022, Vargas split time between the Arizona Complex and California Leagues, once again showing incredible promise: 51.1 innings, 2.98 ERA, 64 punch outs, and just 17 free passes. The wiry righty opened last year back up with Fresno, starting 13 games with the Grizzlies, posting a 64-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a 4.22 ERA, a 4.07 FIP, and a 4.45 xFIP. According to reports, Vargas underwent the elbow procedure late July. Based on a standard return time, Vargas may step on an affiliated mound late in 2024.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of my favorite pitching prospects in the entire minor leagues. If he can avoid the dreaded injury nexus, Vargas could be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. The wiry righty owns one of the loosest, easy flowing arms in the game. Plus fastball. Plus curveball. Average change that may see an uptick with some more fine tuning. Years ago Anderson Espinoza was the heir apparent to the Crown of the Top MiLB pitching prospect. Then injury after injury robbed him of a lot development time. Vargas has that type of potential.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, here’s the list of 19-year-old hurlers that posted a 25% to 27% strikeout percentage with an 8% to 10% walk percentage with one club in any Low-A league (min. 60 IP): Michael Kopech, Jackson Jobe, Trevor Cahill, Randall Delgado, Alfredo Garcia, Victor Vodnik, and – of course – Jordy Vargas.
For those counting at home:
Kopech’s been an above-average, albeit enigmatically erratic, starter throughout his big league career. Jobe is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Cahill, who made the 2010 All-Star Game and finished among the Top 10 voting for the AL Cy Young Award that year, has been a quality big league arm throughout the majority of 13-year career. Delgado, a former consensus Top 50 prospect, spent eight seasons in the Bigs. Garcia never made it past Low-A. And Vodnik debuted last year for the Rockies.
Four of six similarly performing hurlers have cracked the big leagues. Another one is a consensus top prospect. And one flamed out. That’s pretty good odds for Vargas. Prior to the elbow woes, the 6-foot-3, 153-pound right-hander showcased a lively, riding above-average fastball that projects – or, at least, projected – to creep into plus territory. His curveball is an absolute 12-6 hammer, easily one of the best that I saw in the minors last year. And he seems to have a solid feel / ability to throw it for strikes as well. Vargas will also mix in a mid-80s power changeup that at times tumbles hard or shows some significant arm-side run. I love Vargas. I think there’s the foundation in place to be a competent mid-rotation starter – assuming injuries won’t be an issue. Unfortunately, Colorado has proven – time and again – that they can’t coax the most out of their young arms. If everything breaks the right way, he’ll have three above-average or better pitches with 50-grade command.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 45/55 | 70 | 50 | 50/55 | 50 |
Background: The first high school outfielder to be taken in the 2021 draft, the Mile High front office nabbed Montgomery with the eighth overall pick that summer, firmly between left-hander Frank Mozzicato and former flame-throwing righty Sam Bachman. Montgomery immediately opened up some eyes after a strong – albeit abbreviated – debut in the Complex League, batting .340/.404/.383. The following season, despite dealing with a lingering quad issue and an undisclosed injury, Montgomery continued to mash in 56 games with Fresno, posting a .313/.394/.502 slash line. Last season, the front office bumped him up to High-A, but he failed to take full advantage of hitter-friendly confines of Spokane: he batted .251/.336/.370 with 18 doubles, two triples, 10 homeruns, and 18 stolen bases (in 23 total attempts). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 5% below the league average. His production saw a notable uptick during his stint in the Arizona Fall League as he slugged .333/.436/.500 with two doubles, one triple, three homeruns, and 10 stolen bases in 19 games with Salt River.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: I’m still not entirely sold on the bat – and likely won’t feel comfortable till he hits in Double-A – but there’s plenty of potential.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old bats posted a 90 to 105 wRC+ mark with a strikeout rate between 26% to 29% with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): Jason Place, Adrian Placencia, and Benny Montgomery.
The majority of his tools scream impact player: average power, plus-plus speed, and the potential (read: potential, not realized) to be a tremendous outfielder. It’s what got him drafted so high and it’s understandable why the Rockies took a liking to him. But it was always going to come down to the hit tool, the great separator from him becoming Mickey Moniak or Kyle Tucker. As for the defense, his plus-plus speed has not translated into a whole lot of net positive value, but it will.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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FB | CU | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
50 | 50/55 | 55 | 50/55 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Armed with a Top 10 pick for the 17th time since the franchise’s inception heading into the 2022 draft, the Rockies decidedly honed in on the one position the organization has consistently struggled to develop, pitching, and selected Gonzaga ace Gabriel Hughes with the 10th overall pick two years ago. (Note: it’s now 18 Top 10 picks as of 2023). Hughes, a 6-foot-4, 220-pound righty, flirted with two-way duty during his three-year tenure with the Bulldogs, though it was quite clear his future would be on the bump. He began his professional career last season, making eight starts with the club’s High-A affiliate, the Spokane Indians, before moving on up to Double-A. But after eight starts with the Yard Goats, Hughes hit the disabled list courtesy of a barking elbow that eventually required Tommy John surgery. He finished the year with a combined 6.21 ERA across 66.2 innings, recording an 83-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Despite being the top arm in the collegiate class, Hughes’ ceiling isn’t elite. Mid-rotation caliber potential. Seattle, with their version of Cleveland’s pitching development program, looks like a logical landing place, but he likely won’t be available. Look for a team like Colorado, Detroit, or the Angels to snag Hughes.
Scouting Report: I’m not entirely sure Hughes unveiled a new weapon in his arsenal last season. But I certainly didn’t see it during his amateur time and no other scouting report I’ve looked up includes it. The former first rounder was throwing a power cutter fairly frequently before hitting the disabled list. The 89- to 93-mph offering would flash some impressive – albeit inconsistent – horizontal movement as well. It may actually move to the top of his repertoire as his best offering eventually. Hughes also seemed to reserve the cutter’s usage against righties. His fastball, which would consistently sit in the 94- to 96-mph range in college, downgraded to 92 to 93 and touching 95 on rare occasion. Average mid-80s slider and upper-70s curveball. I did not see his once-promising changeup either. Hughes showed a decent feel for the strike zone, which only came about during his final year with Gonzaga. Assuming the elbow will be completely resolved in the near future, Hughes looks like a solid #4 / #5-type starter at his peak.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 40 | 55 | 45 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Colorado handed Jorge the largest international free agent deal in franchise history when they signed him to a whopping $2.8 million pact two years ago. The Cuban import spent that summer dominating in the foreign rookie league, slugging .320/.402/.452 with 13 doubles, one triple, four homeruns, and 13 stolen bases (though it took him 23 tries to do so). Last season, the front office took the unexpectedly cautious approach and sent him to the stateside rookie league. And he was Ruthian: he slugged .370/.495/.644 in 21 games. After that start the powers-that-be had no other choice but to bump him up to Low-A. He batted .283/.322/.338 in 49 games with Fresno.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Nice, easy right-handed swing with good torque through the torso. Jorge projects to have a 45-grade bat, average power, and a potential 55-grade glove.
Scouting Report: From a physical stand point Jorge’s wiry frame still has plenty of room for growth and added strength. He’s built similar to Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie. And that’s going to be the crux of Jorge’s future development: is he going to develop the strength – both in terms of muscle and rotationally – to consistently drive the ball? When I saw him last summer he wasn’t doing that. Plus speed, solid defense, and consistent bat-to-ball skills. If the power doesn’t show up, he’ll find himself on the fast-track to utility-dom.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2027
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Cleveland has not invested a whole lot of first round draft capital into college bats in recent years, particularly since Mike Chernoff took over at the helm. In fact, you could count on one hand how many collegiate hitters Cleveland’s drafted since 2016: Chase DeLauter. Snagged with the 16th overall pick two years ago, DeLauter left James Madison University as (A) the highest drafted player in school history and (B) sporting a Ted Williams-esque .402/.520/.715 career slash line in 66 contests. The former Duke, though, didn’t start his professional career off on the right foot – pun intended. A foot injury, which eventually forced him under the knife last January, forced him to delay his anticipated pro debut until early June. After a quick, nine-game rehab tour through the Complex League, DeLauter caught fire in 42 games with Lake County and didn’t stop during his brief tenure in Double-A. He would finish his first minor league season sporting a .355/.417/.528 slash line with 22 doubles, five homeruns, and six stolen bases (in nine attempts). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was a scorching 59% above the league average threshold. DeLauter’s bat continued to impress during his stint with the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League, batting .299/.385/.529 with five doubles and five homeruns in only 23 games.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: DeLauter hits all the checkboxes. A swing taken out of the Will Clark handbook, [he] could be the second college hitter off the board – after Brooks Lee.
Scouting Report: One of the most recognizable, if not the most recognizable, unique swings in all of the minor leagues. DeLauter, who’s cut from a similar athletic cloth as Bradley Zimmer, displays a scissor-kick action with his lower-half, particularly on inner pitches, and relies heavily on his torso for accelerating and decelerating his swing, often times just giving the appearance that he’s stopping his follow through short. Whether that works in the big leagues is still up for debate. What isn’t, though, is his production. He mashed all the way through his debut, showcasing a potential above-average hit tool, promising power (something Cleveland is in dire need of), polished at bats, speed, and the ability to play an up-the-middle position. The lone pockmark on an otherwise stellar showing was his inability to hit southpaws. The lefty-swinging former first rounder batted .244/.250/.342 against southpaws (compared to .382/.455/.572 vs. RHP).
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
60 | 50 | 20 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Ever since Mike Chernoff took over the captainship for the Guardians, he’s had a special affinity for the Tampa Bay Rays, reaching out to the savvy franchise to complete 11 separate transactions. And Chernoff has swung-and-missed on a few big deals. The Junior Caminero-for-Tobias Myers deal three years ago is as bad as it gets. But then there’s the three-team deal that involved the Mariners where Cleveland ultimately sent Yandy Díaz to (Tampa) and a competitive balance pick stapled to Edwin Encarnacion’s contract to Seattle with the return being Jake Bauers, which isn’t that far behind either. So it’ll be interesting to see how the club’s latest deal – a one-for-one challenge trade involving veteran righty Aaron Civale and Kyle Manzardo – pans out. Originally taken by Tampa Bay in the second round out of Washington State University, Manzardo was an absolute monster during his final two (well, one-plus) seasons with the Cougars: he looked Ruthian during the COVID-limited 2020 campaign, slugging .436/.500/.694 through 16 games, and he followed that up with a scorching .366/.437/.640 slash line in a full year’s worth of work in 2021. And he continued to assault any pitcher standing in his way during his pro debut that summer too, batting .349/.440/.605 in 13 Complex League games. Tampa Bay immediately placed the 6-foot, 205-pound sweet-swinging first baseman on the fast track and sent him directly up to High-A in 2022. And Manzardo finished it with an impressive stint in Double-A. Last season, the former second rounder split time between Cleveland’s and Tampa’s Triple-A affiliates, both in the International League, hitting a disappointing .237/.337/.464 – which he sandwiched around an extended stint on the DL due to a wonky shoulder. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average by 2%. Manzardo found his stroke in the Arizona Fall League, though, hitting .272/.340/.565 with 14 extra-base knocks in 22 games.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The history of the minor leagues has been littered with power-hitting, lethal first baseman and very few actually produce at the big league level. Manzardo won’t be one of them. He’s going to continue to hit and hit well.
Scouting Report:Manzardo got off to a solid start to the year in 2023, hitting .272/.373/.513 with 15 doubles, one triple, and 10 homeruns over his first 55 games. But then something happened – perhaps, an undiagnosed shoulder issue – and he fell into a big time slump, batting a putrid .143/.250/.243 over the next several weeks. Then after he came back from the injured list, he slugged .256/.348/.590 in 21 games with the Columbus Clippers. Then, of course, he went on hit well in the AZL. Manzardo’s an exceptionally patient hitter, rarely missing in the zone or chasing pitches outside of it. He’s a smooth defender at first base, which basically amount to nothing value wise, but he’s not going to kill you there either. Manzardo got hot and belted out six homeruns in the Fall League, but he doesn’t profile for more than 18- to 22-homers at the big league level. Last year, for the first time in his career, he struggled massively against lefties, so that needs to be monitored moving forward. In terms of big league production, think: .290/.355/.445.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 55 |
Background: Once touted as the potential top pick in the 2019 draft, Espino’s lengthy arm action (presumably) pushed him down the list at the start of the draft. He didn’t go at the top. Nor did he make it in the Top 10 picks, or even the first 20 selections. Finally, though, the Guardians of Cleveland stopped his slide at the 24th overall pick, eventually signing the Panamanian right-hander to a deal worth $2.5 million. And almost immediately it looked like Espino’s seven-figure signing bonus was a dramatic underpay as he posted a 34-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 23.2 innings. Two years later when minor league ball returned to action, the 6-foot-2, 225-pound righty was absolutely unhittable as he dominated the Low-A and High-A competition, averaging 14.9 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. His 2022 campaign looked even better across his first four starts in the fires of Double-A: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 35 strikeouts, and just four walks. After that, though, the former first rounder hasn’t popped back up on a mound thanks to a knee injury and which was followed up by shoulder surgery.
Scouting Report: With nothing to report on due to injury, here’s Espino’s previous write-up:
“The season lasted just four starts before he hit the disabled list, but Espino was as dominant as I’ve seen any minor league hurler over the past decade or so. His fastball wasn’t just electric, it was nuclear. The type of plus-plus offering that hitters could sit on it and still miss it by a country mile. The curveball will flash plus at times. And his slider adds a second plus-plus offering to his repertoire. Solid-average changeup. Espino’s command showed tremendous improvement as well, moving from average to plus during his limited showings. You could make the argument that his ceiling is higher than any pitcher in the minor leagues. Missing significant time to a shoulder issue is a major red flag. The sky’s the limit as long as he can stay on the mound. If it weren’t for the injuries, Espino would have likely played a factor for the Guardians coming down the stretch.”
The inherent injury risk is palpable at this point. To be fair, Espino’s basically an unknown at this point and it’s not certain his once dynamic repertoire returns back to its pre-injury explosiveness.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: It’s almost impossible to believe, but the baby-faced switch-hitter is now entering his seventh year in the Guardians’ farm system. Signed out of Caracas, Venezuela for just $125,000 midway through the 2017 season, the 5-foot-10, 170-pounder immediately established himself as one of the system’s best middle infield prospects in an organization chock full of second basemen and shortstops. Rocchio slugged .335/.390/.442 during his pro debut in 2018 as he split time between the foreign and stateside rookie leagues. The next season, the front office aggressively assigned the then-18-year-old to the old New York-Penn League – though his numbers took a bit of swan dive back to earth: he hit .250/.310/.373 with a dozen doubles, three triples, and five homeruns in 69 contests with Mahoning Valley. After sitting on the 2020 season due to the pandemic, the typically conservative organization had Rocchio bypass Low-A and shoved him directly up to the Lake County in High-A. Rocchio promptly responded with a solid .265/.337/.428 line across 64 games. And he continued to swing it well during his second half season in Double-A (.294/.360/.505). The following year, 2022, he continued his two-stop per year development schedule as he spent time with Akron (AA) and Columbus (AAA), hitting an aggregate .257/.336/.420 in a career best 132 contests. Last season, the talented infielder appeared in 116 games in the International League, batting .280/.367/.421 with career bests in doubles (33), triples (six), and stolen bases (25) to go along with seven dingers. His production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was one percent better than the league average threshold. He also spent some time in Cleveland across several brief stints as well, hitting a paltry .247/.279/.321 with just six extra-base knocks (all doubles) in 86 plate appearances.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: A gifted defender that may earn a Gold Glove or two on either side of the keystone.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, four 22-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): 95 to 105 wRC+ with an 11% to 14% strikeout rate. Those four sticks: Alcides Escobar, Jose Peraza, Cheslor Cuthbert, and – of course – Brayan Rocchio.
It should be noted that Escobar, Peraza, and Cuthbert all finished their big league careers with wRC+ marks between 72 and 79. And only one, Escobar, would spend the majority of his career as a starter and that’s on the back of his stellar wizardry at shortstop.
The batted ball data during his time in Triple-A is run of the mill: he does a good job making consistent in-zone contact; he’ll chase offerings outside the strike zone an average amount of time; and the Hard Hit Rate, 32%, is decent. Rocchio’s pretty limited physically: there’s not much projectable developmental meat left on his 5-foot-10, 170-pound frame. Short, quick swing with above-average bat speed. Rocchio can really do damage at the bottom of the strike zone, especially as a lefty. Offensively, he’s still lacking a true standout tool. The bat has stagnated over the past couple of years and its once-project ceiling as a 55-grade has regressed into average territory. He can pick it out in the field still, which is enough to push him up to low end starter status. Low ceiling / high floor guy.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45/55 | 50/60 | 35/30 | 55 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Arguably the largest surprise in the opening round of the draft last summer, the Guardians, who’ve never shied away from teenage bats in the opening round, snagged the big teenage catcher with the 23rd overall pick last July. Not only did the selection of Velazquez catch the industry off guard, but it also marks the second time in the last six years the organization used a first round pick on a teenage backstop, the riskiest investment when it comes to draft captial. In fact, the club is the only one in baseball to select a prep backstop in the opening round twice in the last six years. A product of Huntington Beach High School, home to Nick Pratto and Hank Conger, among others, Velazquez got off to a scorching start to his sophomore campaign, batting .593 before COVID prematurely ended the year. The lefty-swinging first rounder followed that up by hitting .316 with nine dingers and 25 RBIs as a junior. And he capped off his amateur career with a .402 average and six more homeruns. Cleveland signed the hulking teenage to a deal worth $2.5 million. Velazquez batted a scorching .348/.393/.739 in six Complex League games.
Scouting Report: While the jury is still out on Will Benson, who seems to have found a home in Cincinnati, the last time Cleveland successfully drafted and developed a high school power hitter would be Manny Ramirez, more than 30 years ago. Velazquez is the type of prospect that the more you watch, the more you wonder why he didn’t garner more hype heading into the draft. He mashed a pitch at the 14U East-West Perfect Game contest at 102.5 mph. And he’s only gotten better. Thick lower half with a lightning quick at bat, plus raw power, and a very good feel on how pitchers will approach him. Light tower power, especially pull side. But he’ll shoot a ball over the opposite field or straight away just as easily. He’s very likely going to outgrow the position and wind up at first base, but there’s a chance for an above-average hit tool and plus in-game power. He’s a very advanced high school bat. And we may look back and wonder how he lasted as long as he did.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026/2027
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40/55 | 30/50 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The Acuna family is doing alright. Ronald is fresh off of winning the MVP Award. Luisangel has developed into a top prospect and was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Max Scherzer to the Rangers. And Bryan Acuna, the youngest of the ball playing brothers, commanded a $1.7 million bonus off the international scene a couple years ago. The Chourio family may not be the Acuna family, but they ain’t far from it either. Jackson Chourio is a consensus Top 5 prospect in the minor leagues and recently signed a long-term, big dollar deal (eight year, $82 million) with the Brewers before even making his debut in The Show. Jaison, his younger brother, is coming off of his second consecutive strong showing in the low levels of the minor leagues. After joining the Guardians on a $1.2 million deal, Chourio put together a .280/.446/.402 showing in the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year-old. Last season the front office pushed the 6-foot-1, 162-pound switch-hitter stateside. Chourio handled the promotion to the ACL with aplomb, batting .349/.476/.463.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Chourio has the potential to develop above-average power and a matching hit tool.
Scouting Report: Chourio takes some healthy hacks at the plate, holding very little back on each swing. He’s had little trouble making consistent contact in both the foreign and stateside rookie leagues, but he took some ugly swings in Low-A that may suggest some pitch recognition issues. The bat speed is encouraging for future power growth. He seemed to handle pitches down in the strike zone very well. There’s talent to be an impact big league brewing, but he’s not as dynamic as his older brother.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: It was a numbers crunch game, so the move in itself, was understandable – at that time. The front office decided it was time to move on from former top prospect Nolan Jones and completed a one-for-one swap with the Rockies following the 2022 season. A year later, after Jones’ emergence and Top 5 finish in the Rookie of the Year award, the outcome seems a lot murkier. Signed by the Rockies in 2018, Brito hit the ground running during his debut in 2019 and he hasn’t really stopped either. He made quick work of the foreign rookie league during his debut (.328/.403/.491), continued to swing it during his state side debut in 2021 (.296/.406/.432), and showed an uptick in power when he moved into full-season action a year later (.286/.407/.470). Last season, hit first in the Guardians’ organization, the 5-foot-11, 202-pound infielder bounced through three levels, going from High-A to Double-A and then finishing with a five game cameo in the International League. Brito would post an aggregate .271/.377/.434 slash line with career bests in doubles (31) and homeruns (14) with a triple and seven swipes (though he was nabbed eight times). His production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 26% above the league average.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s not enough to project as an eventual starter, but the foundation and groundwork as a solid bench option are certainly in place. Second base-only certainly limits his ceiling.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only a pair of 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+, a 15.5% to 17.5% strikeout rate, and a double-digit walk rate. Those two bats: Ke’Bryan Hayes, the young Pirates cornerstone who batted .271/.309/.453 last season, and – of course – Juan Brito.
Brito kind of falls into a similar class of prospect as fellow Guardians minor league infielder Brayan Rocchio: lots of contact, production against older competition, middle infielder, average-ish power. The question, though, is simple: where’s the standout tool? There really isn’t one. High floor, low ceiling prospect with a high probability of spending at least several years at the big league level.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 45 | 45 | 50 | 45/50 | 45 |
Background: Another one of the club’s long tenured middle infield prospects, Martinez, a switch-hitter out of the Dominican Republic, is now entering his seventh year in the Guardians’ farm system. Cleveland began to accelerate 6-foot, 200-pound infielder’s path to the big leagues two years ago as he split time between Lake County and Akron; he would finish the year with an aggregate .278/.378/.471 slash line with 23 doubles, four triples, 13 homeruns, and a dozen stolen bases. Last season, Martinez returned to the Eastern League for some additional seasoning at the minors’ toughest level. And he wrapped the year up with 37 games with the Clippers of Columbus. Overall, the Santo Domingo native finished the year with a .251/.321/.394 mark with 23 doubles, five triples, a career best 14 homers, and 11 stolen bases (in 14 attempts). His production between the club’s highest two affiliates, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 8% below the average mark.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s the floor as a solid backup infielder with the ceiling as a league average starter.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only five 21-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): 90 to 100 wRC+, an 18% to 20% strikeout rate, and a 7.5% to 9.5% walk rate. Those five sticks: Tim Beckham, Mike Carp, Austin Romine, Sergio Alcantara, and – of course – Angel Martinez.
Martinez started the year out pretty slowly, batting .172/.278/.312 across his first 25 contests. For the remainder of the season, though, the young infield vagabond hit .269/.331/.412, which is more indicative of the actual offensive talent. Martinez is kind of the anti-Brayan Rocchio / Juan Brito middle infielder: he’s slightly below-average with the glove; there are questions about the hit tool, but he’ll buoy the production with some power. He’ll leave the strike zone a little too frequently, which puts emphasis on the rest of the tools. He’s looking like utility guy.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
35 | 60 | 30 | 70 | 50 | 45 |
Background: The front office added a tremendous amount of talent during the 2017-18 international signing period, eventually coming to terms with Jose Tena, Alexfri Planez, Johnkensy Noel, Brayan Rocchio, and – of course – George Valera, who earned a hefty $1.3 million deal. A consensus Top 100 prospect for the past several seasons, Valera got off to a fast start to his professional career, making his debut in the Arizona Complex League at 17 and reaching Low-A the following year. After minor league ball returned to work from the COVID imposed hiatus, Valera would split the 2021 season between Lake County and Akron, batting an aggregate .260/.405/.505 with just five doubles, four triples, and 19 dingers in only 86 games. Cleveland’s brass would send the 6-foot, 195-pound corner outfielder back to the Eastern League for some additional seasoning to begin 2022, but after batting .264/.367/.470 in 90 contests he was promoted up to the final minor league stop. He was 21 years old. Valera would be limited to just 73 games in the International League last season, courtesy of an offseason surgical procedure – though he would struggle for the second consecutive season with Columbus. He hit .211/.343/.375 with 10 doubles, one triple, and 10 homeruns. His production with the Clippers, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 16% below the league average.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s a natural pull hitter, so he may be exploited by good pitching / offspeed low and away.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters posted an 80 to 90 wRC+ with a 26% to 28% strikeout rate with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 300 PA): Joel Guzman, Anthony Gose, Sebastian Rivero, and – of course – George Valera.
Always heavily tilting towards the saber side of offensive production, Valera’s shown some Three True Outcomes results throughout his career. But there’s some problematic data buried in his Statcast results in Columbus last season – namely his in-zone whiff rate. Valera whiffed on 23% percent of his swings within the strike zone last season. He had a hard hit rate approaching 50%, on the other hand, which is the true dichotomy of George Valera. The power / on-base ability can help buoy the low batting averages that will follow. Add it the fact that he can play a passable centerfield, and Valera has the look as a decent low end option, not the star I thought he was once destined for. If he doesn’t bounce back in a large way in 2023, it’s safe to assume he’s heading down the Oscar Gonzalez path.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024
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FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
60/70 | 50/60 | 50 | 40/45 | 50 |
Background: Bishop Hendricken High School is no stranger to top draft prospects. Rocco Baldelli, who developed into one of the game’s premier young players, graduated from the Rhode Island-based high school in 2000 and the Tampa Bay Rays drafted him with the sixth overall pick. Four years later the Twins would select right-hander Jay Rainville with the 39th overall selection, one pick ahead of former All-Star closer Huston Street. Last summer, the Guardians of Cleveland used the 58th pick in the draft on behemoth left-hander Alex Clemmey. Standing an imposing 6-foot-6 and 205-pounds, Clemmey absolutely torched the competition during his senior year with the Hawks: prior to the state playoffs, he struck out 84 hitters in only 35.2 innings of work, allowing just seven singles to go along with his tidy 0.59 ERA. Cleveland drafted the big lefty in the second round, 58th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $2.3 million. He did not make his professional debut.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Since 2010, Cleveland has struggled developing high school arms taken high in the draft. Failed selections include: Dillon Howard (2011, second round), Mitch Brown (2011, second round), Kieran Lovegrove (2011, third round), Juan Hillman (2015, second round), Ethan Hankins (2018, first round), and Lenny Torres (2018, first round). Triston McKenzie is the lone bright spot, with Justus Sheffield and Daniel Espino deserving mentions as well.
Tall and lanky with plenty of room on his frame to add bulk and strength. The big lefty possesses one of the better fastballs in the 2023 draft class, touching as high as 99 mph at points. The build looks athletic enough where throwing consistently in the upper 90s is a distinct possibility. He’ll complement the borderline plus-plus pitch with a curveball that will flash plus on occasion, but currently lacks consistency. He’ll also mix in a decent changeup. From Cleveland’s perspective, it’s easy to dream upon a big, athletic left-hander with a premium fastball, but he’s very much a project. Beyond inconsistent secondary offerings, Clemmey’s feel for the strike zone is lacking. The organization was able to coax Sam Hentges into throwing more strikes. Hopefully, Clemmey can hone in on the zone more frequently as well.”
Ceiling: 1.75- to 2.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2027
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: The meccaof middle infield talent quietly resides in the Midwest, nestled within the franchises in northeast and southern Ohio were the Guardians and Reds have hoarded second basemen and shortstops like prospectors mining for precious metals. Cincinnati, in particular, boasts a deep, bountiful collection of middle infielders – despite the recent graduations of Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. With the impending free agency of ace Luis Castillo looming large over the organization like a pall at a funeral, the front office did the prudent thing: they dealt him away to the highest bidder, of course putting an emphasis on middle infield talent. Cincinnati would ship the three-time All-Star to Seattle in exchange for Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Andrew Moor, and Levi Stoudt at the trade deadline two years ago. Marte being the gem of the package. Signed off the international free agency market in 2018, Marte blossomed into a perennial consensus Top 100 prospect over the past couple years. In 2022, the 6-foot, 216-pound infielder batted .279/.371/.458 with 23 doubles and 19 homeruns between both organizations’ High-A affiliates. Last season, the Cotui, Dominican Republic native appeared in 92 games between Chattanooga and Louisville, the Reds’ Double-A and Triple-A farm teams, slugging .279/.358/.454 with 20 doubles, four triples, 11 homeruns, and 18 stolen bases (including his three-game rehab stint). His overall minor league production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 10%. He also appeared in 35 games with Cincinnati, putting together an impressive .316/.366/.456 slash line.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Not nearly the type of impact player that Elly De La Cruz is – or will be at the Major League level – Marte, nonetheless, owns a high upside ceiling. Loose, quick swing with plus bat speed and the chance to grow into an above-average hit tool. Strong contact and walk rates. Above-average power potential – even though he spent a lot of 2022 in Everett’s homer-inducing ballpark. He’s never going to be confused with Ozzie Smith, but he has the chops to stay at the position.
Scouting Report: With a bevy of strong infield options at the big league level like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Jonathan India in place, it’s not surprising that the Reds’ brass started shifting Marte around the infield dirt last season, adding the hot corner to his list of potential landing spots. He’s a decent glove, but the bat will play anywhere. Marte’s put on considerable bulk to his once wiry frame, adding roughly 35 pounds over the past couple of years. Solid in-zone contact numbers, the lone knock on Marte’s approach is his willingness to expand the zone a bit too frequently. Above-average power, he profiles as a consistent 20- to 25-homer threat at the big league level. In terms of MLB production, think: .270/.335/.440. He’s still tracking like a Gleyber Torres-type performer.
Update: Marte was recently popped and suspended for PEDs.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Surprisingly, or perhaps not, Wake Forest hasn’t produced a whole lot of notable – or valuable – big league talent in its history. Former second rounder Erik Hanson tops the list of most valuable former Demon Deacons, earning more than 20 Wins Above Replacement (BR) in his 11-year career. And then there’s a massive drop off. Mike MacDougal, the former hard-throwing reliever / closer, and crafty soft-tossing right-hander Dave Bush, both of whom tallied less than 4.0 WAR in their respective big league careers, rank second and third on the list. Beyond big league value, the ACC-based school hasn’t produced many early first rounders in their history either – just one Deacon, Kyle Sleeth, was taken among the top 10 picks in the midsummer draft. Rhett Lowder eventually joined Sleeth. Lowder, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander, was a dynamo on the mound during his time at North Stanly High School. And if it wasn’t for COVID prematurely ending his senior season, Lowder may have heard his name called during the 2020 Draft. He would fan 27 hitters (against just one free pass) in only 13.2 innings during his final season. Despite that, as well as being named the 12th best prospect in North Carolina, he didn’t garner a whole lot of attention from large programs. He ended up choosing Wake Forest over smaller baseball schools like UNCW, Appalachian State, and Campbell. But Lowder immediately flashed some serious upside as a freshman – despite an ERA bloated north of 6.00. He would average 10.4 punch outs and just 2.9 walks per nine innings across 12 starts and a pair of relief appearances. His sophomore season saw a major regression back to the norm on his ERA (3.08) as he continued to miss bats (9.5 K/9) and limit walks (2.4 BB/9). But the native North Carolinian took the final step towards collegiate stardom during his junior campaign. Last season, the big righty averaged 10.7 strikeouts and just 1.8 walks per nine innings to go along with a dazzling 1.87 ERA and a perfect 15-and-0 record. Cincinnati selected him in the opening round, 7th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $5.7 million. He did not make his pro debut in 2023.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only six (6) ACC hurlers average fewer than 2.0 walks and more than 10.0 punch outs per nine innings in a season (min. 90 IP): Danny Hultzen, Tyler Wilson, Luke Weaver, Charlie Barnes, Parker Messick, and – of course – Rhett Lowder.
Very impressive three pitch mix: 93- to 94-mph, above-average fastball, a plus upper-80s slider, and an above-average power changeup sitting in the upper 80s. Not only does Lowder command the zone well, earning a plus grade, but he commands it well with all three pitches – which allows them to play up. He’s one of the safer picks in the college draft class, showing a high floor with the mid-level ceiling – something along the lines of a good #3-type hurler.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 45/50 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: The second biggest prospect the club acquired in the Luis Castillo swap with Seattle two years ago, Arroyo, a second round pick in 2021, turned in a bit of a breakout campaign in 2022 as he slugged .293/.366/.480 with both organizations. Last season, the Reds’ brass sent the 6-foot, 175-pound shortstop up to the Midwest League, becoming one of just three qualified teenage bats in the level. Arroyo put together a .248/.321/.427 slash line with 26 doubles, 10 triples, 13 homeruns, and 28 stolen bases (in 35 total attempts). His overall production with the Dayton Dragons, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 8% above the league average mark. Arroyo also appeared in a quartet of Double-A contests as well, going 6-for-17 with two doubles and a triple across 20 plate appearances.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Arroyo has quietly become one of the better shortstop prospects in the minor leagues and most haven’t realized it yet. Better than expected power from one of the youngest players in the 2021 draft class. A big breakout is coming in 2023. He’s the second best shortstop prospect in the Reds’ system, which is saying something nowadays.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 19-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): 103 to 113 wRC+, a 7% to 10% walk rate, and a 20% to 22% whiff rate. Those two hitters: Wendell Rijo, who has yet to make his big league debut despite now entering his late-20s, and – of course – Edwin Arroyo.
An above-average defender at a premium position, Arroyo’s overall numbers were deflated by a pathetic showing during the first two months of the season; he hit a lowly .182/.234/.311 across his first 36 games. Beginning on May 31st through the rest of the year, a span of 89 contests, the former second rounder slugged .281/.360/.480. He continues to show average power potential with speed and he makes consistent contact. Arroyo has one of the more recognizable (read: odd) stances at the plate: crouched low, wide open, almost like he’s sitting on corner chair, but the head remains still throughout. Lightning quick bat that’s made for peppering line drives. Big league production: .290/.340/.410.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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FB | CB | SW | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 40 | 55 |
Background: Four months before the Mariners and Reds got together on the big Luis Castillo swap, the two organizations worked out a deal for veterans Eugenio Suarez, an All-Star in 2018, and Jesse Winker, who was coming off of his own All-Star campaign. The return package: Justin Dunn, Jake Fraley, Brandon Williamson, and a PTBNL, which turned out to be Connor Phillips, a former second rounder. Here’s a breakdown of the results: Suarez was Suarez for two seasons in Seattle before he was traded this offseason to Arizona; Winkler completely flopped in one season with the Mariners’ uniform and – somehow – looked even worse in 2023. As for the Reds’ trove of prospects: Fraley has been a very solid, above-average part-time slugger for the Reds; Williamson was a competent backend starter during his debut season last year; Dunn flopped; and Phillips has emerged as one of the more underrated pitching prospects in the minor leagues. Splitting his 2023 season between Chattanooga and Louisville, Phillips hurled 105.0 innings while averaging 13.2 strikeouts and 4.9 walks per nine innings to go along with a reasonably looking 3.86 ERA and a slightly better 3.71 FIP. He also made five starts with Cincy, posting a 26-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 20.2 innings of work.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: You could make the argument – and a rather convincing one – that he’s one of the better starting pitching prospects most people haven’t quite discovered. Just like former Red Tyler Mahle, who I wrote extensively about over the years. Obvious reliever risk due to command issues. But he’s already logged nearly half of a season in Double-A before his age-22 season. Maybe 85% of a healthy Tyler Glasnow.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only five 22-year-old hurlers tallied at least a 35% strikeout percentage with one club in any Double-A league (min. 60 IP): Cristian Javier, Spencer Strider, Joey Cantillo, Yimi Garcia, and the forever underrated Connor Phillips.
To put it bluntly: when Phillips is on and throwing strikes, there are very few minor league arms that could go toe-to-toe with him. Mid- to upper-90s fastball that sits in the 94- to 97-mph range with hop. Two plus breaking balls: a low 80s curveball and a mid-80s sweeper / slider with the latter being the slightly better option. Phillips will also mix in a rare, average upper 80s / low 90s changeup. The only thing standing in Phillips’ way towards pitching near – or at – the top of a big league rotation is the command. It’s below average, not career damning, and he was throwing more strikes in Double-A than at any other point in his career.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 45/55 | 35/30 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The 2022 draft brought about an interesting little tidbit about the Reds, high school third basemen, and the Major League Draft. When the front office grabbed prep phenom Sal Stewart with the 32nd overall pick, it marked the first time the organization selected a high school third baseman in the opening round of the draft since 1977 when they snagged Tad Venger (two picks ahead of Dave Henderson, by the way). Stewart’s selection also was just the third time in franchise history the selected a hot cornerman from the prep ranks; the other being the immortal Bernie Carbo. A product of Westminster Christian School, Stewart made a brief, eight-game cameo in the Complex League after joining the club, batting .292/.393/.458. And, surprisingly enough, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound infielder came close to replicating that production line in 2023, despite spending time with Daytona and Dayton. Appearing in 117 games between the franchise’s Low-A and High-A affiliates, Stewart batted .275/.396/.416 with 24 doubles, 12 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. His total production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 28%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: When Stewart connects it’s like an explosion. Really, really good looking swing – especially considering that power is Stewart’s main asset. Impressive speed and explosion throughout his rotation. It wouldn’t be overly shocking to see Stewart consistently post better-than-average contact rates. There’s definitely some Triston Casas-type potential here. Very, very savvy pick by the Cincinnati Reds front office.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 19-year-old bats posted a 123 to 133 wRC+ with a 14% to 16% K-rate with a double-digit walk rate with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Geraldo Perdomo, Brice Turang, Diego Velasquez, and Sal Stewart.
Making Stewart’s overall production line even more impressive is recognizing just how cold his bat was during the first two months of the season: the former first rounder hit an icy .211/.355/.263 over his first 38 games. After that, though, he rebounded to slug .305/.416/.486 over his remaining 80 contests. I love Stewart’s swing. Easy, fluid, athletic. He doesn’t possess blazing bat speed, but the pitch recognition is strong to help compensate. He has power to all fields and he’s just beginning to realize that during games. As noted in last year’s Handbook, there’s the potential to slide across the diamond to first base, though the early returns at the hot corner have been promising.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50/55 | 50/55 | 55 | 50 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: Signed off the international free agency wire in mid-January two years ago, Jorge joined the rebuilding organization on a deal worth a smidgeon less than half-a-million dollars, adding to their ever growing collection of toolsy, high upside middle infield prospects. The 5-foot-10, 160-pound second baseman / centerfielder turned in an explosive debut that summer in the foreign rookie league, mashing .346/.436/.579 with eight doubles, 10 triples, three homeruns, and 27 stolen bases. Jorge spent the following season in the stateside rookie league where he continued to showcase some impressive offensive firepower potential: .261/.405/.529 with 16 extra-base knocks in 42 contests. Last season, Jorge appeared in 109 games between Daytona (86) in the Florida State League and Dayton (23) in the Midwest League, slugging an aggregate .282/.374/.464 with 14 doubles, 10 triples, 12 homeruns, and 32 stolen bases (in 41 total attempts). Per FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production blew past the league average production by 29%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s some potential stardom developing here. He’s one to remember over the next couple of years. He could pop in a very big way.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): 135 to 145 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 18.5% to 20.5%. Those two bats: former MVP Christian Yelich and – of course – Carlos Jorge.
Again, because of the middle infield logjam the Reds are dealing with, it’s not surprising to see the front office begin to experiment with Jorge in centerfield. He’s a dynamic athlete that’s looked reasonably well at his new position, though he does remain quite raw. His approach at the plate belies his youth. He’s picky and has shown the talent to spit on pitches just outside the strike zone. The wiry infielder / outfielder shows an explosive bat and doesn’t get cheated. He also packs considerable pop for a 5-foot-10, 160-pounder. Present average power with the potential to move into above-average territory. He should spend some considerable time in Double-A in 2024, and it may not be out of the question to send him directly up to the minors’ toughest level at the start of the year. Sneakily toolsy, readily apparently good.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40/45 | 40/55 | 30 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: There were very few – and, to be honest, likely no one – that was as high on Cam Collier coming into the 2022 draft as I was. Not only did Lou’s kid have the tools and bloodlines, but he was one of the youngest players in the draft, had a successful year at a JuCo, and spent some time in the Cape Cod League. He had everything you’d want into a potential top pick. And I ate it up. Then Collier, who slipped to the Reds at the 18th overall pick, torched the Arizona Complex League during his abbreviated debut, slugging .370/.514/.630 with a double and two dingers in only nine contests. Then someone pumped the breaks on the Collier Express. Cincinnati sent the 6-foot-2, 210-pound third baseman up to Daytona for 2023. But he struggled making the conversion to full-season action. Appearing in 111 games with the Tortugas of the Florida State League, the former first rounder batted a disappointing .246/.349/.356 with 21 doubles, two triples, six homeruns, and five stolen bases (in six total attempts). His overall production, as measured by FanGraphs’ Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 2% below the league average threshold.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Collier’s one of my favorite prep prospects in the class – enough so, that I might make him the top pick – especially if he takes a discount.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 18-year-old hitters posted a 95 to 105 wRC+ with a 22% to 24% strikeout rate with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Omar Estevez, the former Dodgers top prospect, and – of course – Cam Collier.
The former 18th overall pick got into an early season funk that he just could not shake. Collier hit a disappointing .211/.316/.323 across his first 67 games. But beginning on July 18th through the rest of the season (45 games), the lefty-swinging infielder slugged .298/.397/.405 with nine doubles, one triple, and a pair of homeruns. His overall production during that stint topped the league average mark by 23%. So let’s update the report a bit, shall we? Here’s what we know:
#1. Thanks to his reclassification, Collier’s entering what would be his first full season in the minor leagues. It’s important to remember just how young he is.
#2. The bat speed is phenomenal.
#3. The power didn’t play as well as expected, even during his second half surge.
#4. He can be pitched to. More specifically: the pitch recognition isn’t stellar and he’ll expand the zone against breaking balls, particularly low ones.
Two years ago I made the argument – or statement – that I would consider him as the top player in the draft, if he was willing to take a discount because, well, I thought he was destined to be a star. Now, though, he looks like a potential solid third baseman: good glove, above-average power, 40- to 45-grade hit tool. Again, it’s important to remember just how young he is, especially for a pick with a JuCo season on his resume.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026
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FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
50 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
Background: The Reds’ front office was incredibly busy throughout 2022, making a flurry of trades including two major trades each with the Mariners (Luis Castillo and Eugenio Suarez / Jesse Winkler) and the Twins (Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray). And, surprisingly, the Reds did very, very well in each of those four deals, adding the likes of Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, Connor Phillips, Brandon Williamson, Jake Fraley, and Chase Petty to the fold. The lone player received from the Twins as part of the return for veteran ace Sonny Gray and minor leaguer Francis Peguero, Petty owned one of the top heaters in the 2021 draft class, convincing the Twins to use the 26th overall pick on him. Petty would miss the first several weeks of last season dealing with a sore elbow, but would eventually make his debut in early May. He would go on to make eighteen starts with Dayton (16) and Chattanooga (two) lasting no more than four innings. He hurled 68.0 innings of work, tallying a tidy 1.68 ERA while averaging 8.7 strikeouts and just 2.0 walks per nine innings.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He’s far more polished than the typical flame-throwing high schooler.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, eight 20-year-old hurlers tallied a 24% to 26% strikeout percentage with a 5% to 7% walk percentage with one club in any High-A league (min. 60 IP): Noah Syndergaard, Hector Rondón, Brett Anderson, Randall Delgado, Sean Gallagher, Clayton Blackburn, Adalberto Mejia, and Chase Petty.
Petty’s one of the more interesting pitching prospects, not only in Cincinnati’s boiling farm system but arguably in all of the minor leagues. His once triple-digit touching fastball continues to sit in the 94-mph range, which is fine. It’s still good enough to get upper level minor leaguers and MLB hitters out on a consistent basis. But Petty pitches like he’s throwing 84-mph. Meaning: he pitches backwards, relying heavily on his plus slider and above-average changeup and only sprinkling in his 50-grade heater. His fastball, by the way, wasn’t missing too many bats, so – much to his credit – he’s adapted incredibly well to the professional ranks. The command, especially with the offspeed pitches, is above-average. He’s not going to front a big league rotation, or maybe never slides into a mid-rotation spot, but he has the chops / poise to be an average starter.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 55 | 55 | 45 | 50 |
Background: There aren’t too many college ballplayers that add an exclamation point to their amateur careers quite like Ty Floyd did in 2023. A product of Rockmart High School, Floyd’s performance in the opening game of the finals in the College World Series was extraordinarily brilliant, dominant, and – likely – added quite a bit of draft money to his bank account because the baseball world saw what he was capable of. Squaring off against one of the most potent lineups in college baseball, the 6-foot-2, 200-pound right-hander flummoxed and confused the Gators over 8 impressive innings, striking out the most hitters (17) in a College World Series game since Eddie Bane in 1972, twenty-nine years before Floyd was born. Floyd would begin his collegiate career working out of the Tigers’ bullpen in 2021, posting a 39-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24.1 innings of work. The coaching staff would bump the hard-throwing hurler into the rotation the following year, his sophomore campaign, and he more than held his own: 59.2 innings, 70 punch outs, 23 walks, and a 3.77 ERA. Last season, Floyd set a career high in innings pitched (91.0) as he averaged 11.9 punch outs and 3.7 walks per nine innings to go along with a 4.35 ERA and a perfect 7-and-0 win-loss record. Cincinnati would sign the LSU ace to a deal worth $2,097,500 after selecting him with the 38th overall pick last summer. He did not make his affiliated debut after joining the organization.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only four SEC arms posted a K-rate between 11.5 K/9 and 12.5 K/9 with a walk rate between 3.5 BB/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in a season (min. 70 IP): Carson Fulmer, Jake Cantleberry, Christian MacLeod, & Ty Floyd.
Floyd normally works in the 93- to 96-mph with his heater, but can touch the upper 90s when he reaches back (like in his final collegiate start). Quite simply, his fastball was unhittable during that start. All but three of his 17 punch outs were on the heater. He backs it up with a pair of above-average offerings: a low- to mid-80s slider and a sneakily good changeup. Floyd’s performance in the final game likely pushed him into the back of the first round. Cleveland seems like an ideal candidate. Mid-rotation caliber potential. The command can be spotty at times.”
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
Background: JuCo Cypress College may not be a regular baseball hotbed, but the California-based school has quietly churned out a surprising number of draft picks throughout the years. One hundred and eight, to be exact. The Reds, however, own just two of those selections: Daniel Ponce de Leon, who would go on to be drafted four times, the last by the Cardinals, and – of course – Julian Aguiar. A 12th round pick by the club in 2021, the 6-foot-3, 180-pound right-hander made the transition to the Florida State League look easy two years ago, sporting a 103-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 88.1 innings of work. And he capped off his wildly successful first full pro season with a pair of starts in the Midwest League, easily surpassing the modest expectations laid in front of a late round pick. Last season, however, the former JuCo ace continued to impress in his return to High-A, as well as holding his own in 11 starts with Chattanooga in the fires of Double-A. He finished the year with 125 innings of work spread across 25 starts, averaging 9.9 strikeouts and just 2.7 walks per nine innings with a 2.95 ERA.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hurlers posted a 25.5% to 27.5% strikeout percentage with a 4.5% to 6.5% walk percentage with one club in any Double-A league (min. 50 IP): Jeremy Hellickson, Joe Ross, Tyler Mahle, and Julian Aguiar.
For those counting at home:
Hellickson, Ross, and Mahle all have at least one big league season in which they tallied at least 2.0 WAR (FanGraphs).
A really quality three-pitch arsenal, much better than (A) I was expecting and (B) anyone would expect out of a recent late round pick from a JuCo. Aguiar’s above-average heater sits in the 94- to 95-mph range and touched as high as 97 mph during a start I scouted. It’s a bit too straight for my liking, but he commands it well, which helps. A lot reports indicate he throws a curveball and a slider. It appears, at least from what I witnessed, they’re one in the same – a singular breaking ball, a knuckle curveball, to be exact. His upward bending pointer finger (the spike) is clearly visible in his glove. It’s an above average, albeit a little inconsistent, pitch. His best overall offering is a plus changeup with tremendous velocity separation and some impressive, sometimes breaking ball-esque movement. The control’s a 55, but the actual command is average. There’s definite big league starting material, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him surpass a lot of expectations in the coming years.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50/55 | 50/55 | 30 | 55 | 55 | 60 |
Background: The White Sox’s draft record is like a lazy teenage kid working a first job. Just enough effort to avoid scorn from the management bigwigs, but careful, you don’t want to overdo it lest more be expected. The 2020 draft class brought in dynamic, fast-to-the-big-leagues reliever Garrett Crochet with the 11th overall pick, but little else. And unless the club has designs on converting Crochet – and his freshly minted surgically repair elbow – into a starting gig, it seems like a stretch to use a top selection on a relief arm in today’s game. The 2019 draft saw the addition of first baseman Andrew Vaughn, one of college baseball’s most feared hitters who’s languishing in league average-dom, and then very little. The year before, 2018, Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer were the only notable picks – both of whom are on the northside of Chicago. Jake Burger was part of their 2017 class and no one of note was added the year before. Chicago’s approach of one decent big league per draft cycle is OK, but it’s failed to help buoy a pockmarked big league club which could help explain the organization finishing fourth in the weak Central Division six times in the last 10 years. In fact, it’s been 10 years since the club drafted, developed, and graduated an above-average player – former North Carolina State ace Carlos Rodon. Things may change in the next season or two thanks to lefty-swinging shortstop Colson Montgomery. Taken with the 22nd overall pick three years ago, Montgomery continues to stand alone atop of the Sox’s farm system. He reached Double-A by the end of his first full season. And if a back injury at the start of 2023 didn’t knock him out of commission until mid-June, he may have already accrued big league service time. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound middle infielder returned to action with a quick tour through the ACL then headed up to High-A for a couple weeks then finished the year in Double-A. He hit an aggregate .287/.456/.484 with 14 doubles, three triples, eight homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases. He spent the fall playing for Glendale, hitting .269/.291/.539 in 55 trips to the plate.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The lefty-swinging infielder showcased a little bit of everything during his phenomenal campaign in 2022 – despite playing against significantly older competition, including a 50-game on-base streak that extended through mid-July. The lone red flag: a slight, slight platoon split against lefties that which is hardly concerning.
Scouting Report: Montgomery continues to be overlooked somewhat – even if he’s widely recognized as a Top Prospect. The Southridge High School product does everything well, flashing a plus tool or two at times even. There’s a change for a 55-grade bat, 55-grade power, and a positive defensive value at shortstop. That type of physical makeup is difficult to find. Montgomery handled lefties well last season, takes a patient approach at the plate, and consistently barrels up the baseball. Silky smooth left-handed swing with easy power, even if he hasn’t fully tapped into it. In terms of big league ceiling, think: .290/.360/.480.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: The ball club’s connection to Cuba is longer and deeper than any in baseball, so it wasn’t shocking when they went out and handed Bryan Ramos, a native of La Habana, a $300,000 deal halfway through the 2018 season. And, of course, they immediately placed him on the organization’s patented fast-track development program. He spent his debut season, 2019, as a 17-year-old in the Arizona Summer League. After minor league baseball returned from its COVID-induced absence, Ramos jumped straight into Low-A and – for the most part – handled himself adequately, batting a respectable .244/.345/.415 in 115 games. The hefty corner infielder blitzed his way through High-A in fewer than 100 games and spent the last several weeks in Double-A the following year. Ramos got a late start to the 2023 season, but after a four-game tune-up with Kannapolis, he would spend the rest of the year with Birmingham. He slugged .272/.369/.457 with 10 doubles, one triple, 14 homeruns, and a quartet of stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 22% better than the league average. He spent the fall playing with the Glendale Desert Dogs, putting together a Ramos-like .264/.304/.415 slash line.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: I’m not entirely sold on the bat completely, but the other tools all suggest a league average starter – bare minimum.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only a pair of 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in Double-A (min. 300 PA): 117 to 127 wRC+, 10% to 12% BB-rate, and a K-rate 20% and 24%. Those two hitters: Eguy Rosario and Bryan Ramos.
I think Ramos may be the single most underrated prospect in the entire game. He just quietly keeps chugging along, quickly – and quietly – moving through the minor leagues with little fanfare, but interesting levels of production. And last season was no different. A former second baseman – or at least, he experimented at the keystone – Ramos is an underrated defender at the hot corner, providing easy positive value. As a hitter, he possesses easy plus raw power that he’s just beginning to bring into game environments. He isn’t a free swinger either, showing a patient approach. He may never hit for a high average, but there 25-homer thump, good leather, and strong OBPs. That collection doesn’t grow on trees. He’s the type of player that you’ll look up in a couple years and realize how unappreciated he is. .250/.335/.465-type potential.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 50 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: In one of the most stunning turn of events near the deadline since, well, the White Sox unexpectedly waved the white flag in 1997, the Angels ended their will-we or won’t-we dance and pushed their collective chips to the center of the table and dealt for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. Nearly a month later they were placed on waivers (along with a slew of other veterans) and eventually claimed by the Guardians. This time, though, the White Sox made the right call, acquiring the Angels’ top prospect, Edgar Quero, along with left-hander Ky Bush. The move added a serviceable southpaw and a potential impact bat to the system. A Cuban import that signed with Los Angeles back in 2021, Quero reached Low-A just a couple months later. Two years ago the young switch-hitter mashed his way through the level during an extended return, slugging .312/.435/.530 with 35 doubles, two triples, 17 homeruns, and 12 stolen bases (in 17 total attempts). Last season, in perhaps a bit of shocking move, the Halos’ brass pushed the then-20-year-old straight up to the fires of Double-A. And, surprisingly, he more than held his own. Appearing in a 101 games between both organizations’ Double-A affiliates, Quero hit .255/.380/.351 with 17 doubles, six homeruns, and a stolen base. His production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a quietly solid 5%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: At this point it’s probably easier to list what the young phenom can’t do. And, well, there’s nothing on the list. Quero’s a (A) switch-hitter with no platoon splits, (B) hits for average, (C) hits for power, (D) runs well – especially for a catcher, (E) works the count, (F) gets on base, and (G) plays strong defense.
Scouting Report: Short and stocky with a thick lower half, he’s often referred to as a bat-first backstop, but he continues to generate solid value as a backstop to complement his above-average hit tool. He rarely swings and misses. The young switch-hitter handled the Angels’ aggressive promotion up to Double-A with relative ease, though his power did take a bit of a step back. I was more bullish on his power two years ago, but the swing path may limit his ability to tap into his above-average pop. Alejandro Kirk with a couple more dingers in his back pocket.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 70 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: The Chicago White Sox have had some incredible luck drafting lefties in the opening round of the midsummer draft. The Pale Hose have snagged Carlos Rodon, Chris Sale, and Gio Gonzalez over the past 20 years. And they may have unearthed their next great southpaw starter two years ago. Taken with the 26th overall pick in 2022, the towering Oswego East High School ace stands an imposing 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds. Schultz, a former commit to Vanderbilt, turned in an incredibly dominant – albeit brief – debut last summer. Making 10 starts with the club’s Low Class A affiliate, the Kannapolis Cannon Ballers, Schultz posted a 38-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 27.0 innings, allowing just four earned runs. A “shoulder impingement” knocked him out of commission after his mid-August start.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He throws a surprising amount of strikes, especially considering his age and size, and he tends to hide the ball fairly well. Chicago hasn’t done well drafting and developing pitchers, but Schultz has a chance to be very good.
Scouting Report: Just a couple of interesting tidbits about Schultz’s dominance in 2023:
He allowed one hit over his first five appearances, spanning 12 innings. He posted a 16-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that time.
All four of his earned runs occurred during one clunker of an outing against the Carolina Mudcats. Otherwise, he tossed 25.2 innings of scoreless ball.
He allowed more hits than innings pitched in just two of his 10 appearances.
After touching the upper 90s as an amateur, Schultz’s heater settled comfortably in the 93- to 94-mph last year. His low arm slot adds a bit of deception – along with his wingspan – but it wasn’t missing too many sticks last season. The slider is lethal, particularly against southpaws. Tremendous amount of horizontal movement that starts well off the plate and sweeps across the entirety of it. Schultz commands the strike zone surprisingly well, and he can throw both of his secondary offerings (slider and changeup) for strikes. There’s some #3 / #4 type potential. He’s not entering his age-20 season with fewer than 30 innings under his professional belt. One word of caution: once he returns to the mound, he needs to prove that his dominance isn’t correlated to not turning over a lineup multiple times.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 50 | 30 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The 2022 draft class was highlighted by a strong bloodline connection. Jackson and Matt Holliday, Druw and Andruw Jones, Cam and Lou Collier, and Justin and Carl Crawford – just to name a few. And while the 2023 class didn’t have those type of well-known connections to the game, it doesn’t mean members of the class haven’t grown up around the game. Take, for example, University of Mississippi shortstop Jacob Gonzalez, whose father spent a year in the low levels of the minor leagues. Jess, the elder Gonzalez, made 15 appearances with Lethbridge and High Desert in 1994, throwing 40.2 innings with 36 punch outs and just 13 walks to go along with an unsightly 5.09 ERA. He would pop up in the Indy Leagues pitching for Mohawk Valley the next year before riding off into the proverbial sunset. The younger Gonzalez, though, has a significantly brighter future. A stalwart two-sport star at Glendora High School, home to former big leaguers Ed Kirkpatrick, Aaron Rowand, and Adam Plutko, Gonzalez was a lit stick of dynamite during his freshman collegiate season in 2021. He finished the year with a whopper of a production line (.355/.443/.561) with 16 doubles, one triple, 12 homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases. Production, by the way, that not only led all true freshman in hits and runs scored that year, but also garnered him SEC All-Freshman Team status as well as D1 Baseball National Freshman of the Year. His bat, though, finally cooled in limited action with the National Team during the ensuing summer, going 4-for-22. Projected as the potential top pick in the 2023 draft heading into his sophomore season, Gonzalez’s production took a noticeable step backward for the Rebels; he batted .273/.405/.558 with nine doubles, three triples, 18 homeruns, and a quartet of stolen bases. And, once again, he spent the summer playing for Team USA. He batted .250/.333/.417 with a pair of extra-base knocks in seven games. Last season the lefty-swinging shortstop rebounded by slugging .327/.435/.564 with a career best in doubles (18) to go along with 10 homeruns. The Pale Hose drafted him in the opening round, 15th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3.9 million. Gonzalez struggled through his debut after joining the organization, batting .211/.333/.260 in 34 games.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, here’s my pre-draft write-up:
Gonzalez looked otherworldly during his freshman season with the Rebels. Consider the following:
Since 2011, only eight SEC hitters batted at least .350/.440/.540 in a season (min. 300 PA): Mike Zunino, Brent Rooker, Jonathan India, Austin Martin, Tanner Allen, Sterlin Thompson, Wyatt Langford, and – of course – Jacob Gonzalez. Only one of those hitters – Jacob Gonzalez – accomplished the feat as a teenager.
Now let’s take a look at his production in 2023. Consider the following:
Since 2011, 43 hitters in the SEC batted at least .320/.430/.560 in a season (min. 250 PA). Of those 43, eighteen walked more times than they struck out.
Strong pitch recognition with the ability to make consistent contact from an up-the-middle position. Gonzalez has no issues laying off of pitches just outside the strike zone. He possesses average power and speed with enough leather to stay at the position. The swing, though, isn’t what you’d expect from a potential early first rounder. It’s short and quick, but of the slashing type that’s geared more towards doubles than homeruns in the professional game. He seems like an ideal candidate for a team like the Cubs or Orioles. Mid-first round talent. Low ceiling, very high floor.”
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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FB | CB | SL | CU | Command | Overall |
60 | 55 | 60 | 60 | 45 | 50 |
Background: Never one to shy away from risk, it wasn’t surprising to see the organization take a second round flier on injured LSU right-hander Grant Taylor last summer, signing him to a deal worth $1.66 million, the recommended slot value. A highly decorated player at Florence High School prior to joining the Tigers, Taylor made 17 appearances for the SEC powerhouse in 2022, throwing 31.0 innings with 39 punch outs and 21 free passes to go along with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. Taylor, a former member of Team USA’s 15U squad in 2017, spent the ensuing summer hurling games for the Brewster Whitecaps in the Cape Cod League: 8.1 IP, nine strikeouts, five walks, and a 2.16 ERA. His elbow started barking prior to the 2023 season and he eventually underwent the knife for Tommy John surgery. He’s expected to be ready for the start of the 2024 year.
Scouting Report: It’s all but a foregone conclusion that the team stretches him out as a starting pitcher once he returns to work. Above-average fastball that sits in the 93- to 95- mph range (and touched 98 mph on occasion), it’ll be interesting to see how the former reliever’s velocity carries deep into games. Plus slider and cutter with a solid curveball. He has Cade Horton vibes. He’s likely due a complete reevaluation since there’s such limited mound-time over the past couple years.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2026
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 40/45 | 50 |
Background: As part of flurry of moves to help restock a sagging farm system (as well as shed payroll), Chicago dealt struggling veteran ace Lance Lynn and hard-throwing reliever Joe Kelly to the Dodgers in exchange for righty Nick Nastrini, minor league reliever Jordan Leasure, and veteran outfielder Trayce Thompson. Nastrini, the most interesting name in the return package, is a 2021 fourth rounder out of UCLA, where he tallied an unsightly 6.89 ERA across 31.1 innings of work during his final season. The Dodgers, as they always do, bet on the arsenal and not on the results, and immediately integrated him into their pitching prospect factory. And he flourished. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound right-hander dominated High-A across 21 starts and spent the last several weeks squaring off against the Double-A competition two years ago. Last season, Nastrini would make 21 starts between both organization’s Double-A affiliates and four final appearances with Charlotte in Triple-A. In total, the former Bruin would throw 114.2 innings, recording 139 punch outs (10.9 K/9), 54 free passes (4.2 BB/9), and a 4.08 ERA.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: While his command has taken several important strides forward, it’s still in 40-grade territory at times. It wavers. At points in the season Nastrini locked in on the strike zone and was utterly dominant (he posted a 109-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 76 innings between June 3 and August 30). Beyond on that widow he walked 29 in 40 innings.
Scouting Report: Nastrini’s fastball took a slight step backward last season, going from consistently sitting in the mid-90s to hovering in the 93-mph range and touching the mid-90s. He didn’t generate a huge number of swings-and-misses with his heater when I saw him, but the opposition clearly had issues squaring the offering up, leading to an abnormally high amount of foul balls / tips. Two years ago his curveball looked like the better breaking option; last season it was definitely the slider. His little-used changeup adds a fourth 55-grade or better weapon to his arsenal. As with last year – and the year before and the year before – it’s going to come down to strike-throwing ability. The repertoire is good enough to survive with below-average command. There’s #4-type potential with a sizeable probability he ends up as a high-leverage, late-inning reliever.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Another one of the club’s high profile signings out of Cuba. The White Sox signed the diminutive infielder to a hefty $500,000 after he was part of a dozen players that defected from the country’s World Cup team in Mexico. Chapelli made his professional debut in his homeland during the 2019-20 season, batting a solid .288/.390/.366 with 12 doubles and two triples as a spry 17-year-old. His offense took a major step forward the following season with the Ganaderos de Camaguey as he slugged .318/.442/.496 with 20 doubles, two triples, seven homeruns, and a stolen base. After the 5-foot-8, 187-pound infielder joined the White Sox, he spent his affiliated debut as one of the oldest bats in the Dominican Summer League where – of course – he dominated: .344/.448/.636 with seven doubles, seven triples, eight homeruns, and 10 stolen bases. Last season the front office pushed Chapelli up to a more age-appropriate level of competition – Single-A – and he continued to show promise. Appearing in 106 games with the Winston-Salem Dash, the Camaguey native batted .254/.361/.411 with 20 doubles, six triples, 10 homeruns, and 26 stolen bases. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average by 15%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 21-year-old bats met the following criteria with one organization in High-A (min. 350 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, 22% to 26% strikeout rate, and a double-digit walk rate. Those four hitters: Travis Swaggerty, Max Wagner, Drew Robinson, and – of course Liodel Chapelli.
It’s worth noting that: Swaggerty and Robinson accrued some big league time on their professional resumes. And the three are all former early round picks: Swaggerty was the 10th overall pick in 2018, Wagner was a second round pick in 2022, and Robinson was a fourth round pick by the Rangers in 2010.
It’s not surprising that Chapelli saw some pretty big first- and second-half splits considering the previous year was spent in the foreign rookie league. The lefty-swinging second baseman batted a putrid .213/.320/.365 over his first 58 games and slugged a scorching .301/.406/.465 over his final 48 contests. Chapelli is a rock solid second base prospect, arguably one of the more underrated in the minors. The actual ceiling isn’t over tall, but he’s a safe bet to carve out a gig as a serviceable big leaguer. The 5-foot-8, 187-pound Chapelli owns a little bit of thump, runs a bit, works the count fabulously, and handles offspeed well. Defensively, the former corner outfielder looked competent at the keystone. If he can hold his own at Double-A in 2024, Chapelli could position himself as a key player during the Sox’s lean years before the rebuild is complete.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 60 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: Eder has a bit of interesting background on the field. He was highly touted prepster coming out of Calvary Christian High School, home to several notable pitching alums like Andrew Painter and Luke Jackson, and the New York Metropolitans eventually took a late round flier on him (34th round) in 2017. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound southpaw opted to attend Pitcher U. – aka Vanderbilt University – but inconsistency / command and COVID limited what could have been a special collegiate career. The Marlins would eventually draft him in the fourth round of the 2020 season and pushed him directly into the fires of Double-A during his debut the following year. And he was brilliant – until his elbow started barking, which would eventually force him under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Finally healthy for the first time in roughly a year-and-a-half, Eder made a stop in Low-A for a brief three-game tune-up before jumping up to Miami’s Double-A affiliate (Pensacola). Chicago – in a heavily criticized move – dealt away slugging third baseman Jake Burger in exchange for the former fourth rounder. Eder would make five mostly disastrous starts once he joined the organization. He would finish his second Double-A stint with 11 starts, throwing 47.0 innings with 60 whiffs, 31 walks, and a bloated 6.70 ERA.
Scouting Report: For being a highly touted – or at least a commonly discussed – prospect, Eder’s ceiling isn’t correlated with the amount of ink he gets. His fastball sits in the 91- to 93-mph range, average territory, but the life on the offering, particularly above the belt, bumps it up on the lower end of above-average. His slider is very, very good, giving him a consistent out-pitch. He’ll mix in his changeup about 20% of the time. It’s decent – nothing more, nothing less. The problem is that Eder has a history of command woes and some of last year’s struggles can be attributed to the long layoff, but not all of it. There’s the ceiling of a fourth / fifth starter, but it’s very likely that he’s pushed into a bullpen role, which could happen as soon as 2024 (if he doesn’t hit the ground running).
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
30/40 | 40/60 | 40/30 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: There were two seven-figure deals handed out to players taken in the seventh round last summer: the Guardians signed Duke shortstop Alex Mooney to a million-dollar pact and the White Sox agreed to the same deal with Downers Grove North High School outfielder George Wolkow. Taken with the 209th overall pick, Wolkow reclassified from the 2024 Class and instantly became one of the more intriguing prep bats in the draft. Standing a behemoth 6-foot-7 and 239 pounds, the former University of South Carolina commit slugged .363/.525/.686 with 10 doubles, one triple, and seven homeruns during his final (junior) season. After joining the organization, the big outfielder looked overmatched during his 13-game cameo in the Complex League, cobbling together a disappointing .225/.392/.325 slash line in only 13 games, spanning 51 plate appearances. He whiffed 17 times (exactly one-third of the time).
Scouting Report: Wolkow’s a lot like former IMG Academy star outfielder Elijah Green: loud, explosive tools and some very large question marks surrounding the ability to make consistent contact. Wolkow, for example, whiffed 33 times as an amateur last spring – or 23.4% of the time. Elite prep bats aren’t swinging-and-missing that much in the amateur ranks – especially one that’s playing his ball in the state of Illinois and not some place way south or west. Good speed, but it does take him time to get going. Above-average arm strength. When Wolkow does make contact it’s an explosive, echoing sound. Easy power, but he tends to work underneath the ball quite a bit. Risky bat. He’s the type of prospect that could easily be outside the club’s Top 20 or be #1.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2023
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 55 |
Background: There may not be a more perfect background story in today’s game than Pete Crow-Armstrong and his famous tie to the game. The former first rounder’s mom, actress Ashley Crow, is forever immortalized as the mother of Chicago Cubs pre-teen flame-thrower Henry Rowengartner, who famously broke his arm in the move Rookie of the Year and came back sporting a plus-plus heater that made Barry Bonds shake his head. As luck would have it, Crow-Armstrong, who was originally taken by the New York Mets with the 19th overall pick in the COVID-limited 2020 draft, was dealt to the North Siders as the return package for Javier Baez’s last successful big league breath and veteran hurler Trevor Williams. A product of Harvard-Westlake High School, the hyphenated centerfielder missed all but half-a-dozen games during his debut season in 2021 thanks to shoulder surgery. But he’s quickly – and efficiently – moved through the Cubs’ farm system. The former first rounder split his 2022 season between Myrtle Beach and South Bend, hitting an aggregate .312/.376/.520 with 20 doubles, 10 triples, 16 homeruns, and 32 stolen bases (in 42 total attempts). Last season, Crow-Armstrong continued his rapid ascension through the minors with stops in the Southern and International Leagues, as well as a 13-game cameo with the Cubbies. The 5-foot-11, 184-pound centerfielder slugged a minor league aggregate .283/.365/.511 with career bests in doubles (26), homeruns (20), and stolen bases (37) to go along with seven triples. His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 27%. Crow-Armstrong “batted”, I mean technically, .000/.176/.000 in 19 plate appearances for his wildly (short and) disappointing Big League debut.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He grinds out at bats, making the opposition throw pitch after pitch.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 21-year-old bats posted a 130 to 140 wRC+ with an 8% to 10% walk rate and a 22% to 26% strikeout rate with one club in any Double-A league (min. 300 PA): Thomas Saggese, a top prospect in the Rangers’ farm system, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
There’s been more than enough internet ink spilled on Crow-Armstrong last season, most of which hinged on his contact or, more specifically, the quality of contact he’s exhibited. The former first rounder looked average – like league average-ish – at the plate during his first foray into the International League last season, but a few red flags did rear their ugly head as well. His whiff rate was 30%. His chase rate was a terrible 38%. But the actual batted ball data wasn’t overly bad. Crow-Armstrong posted a hard-hit rate of 40%, though his Top Exit Velocity, 107.3, was middle of the pack. Basically, Crow-Armstrong may not be developing a plus-hit tool, it may only be average. But he backs that up with average power, plus speed, and a tremendous glove at a premium position. In terms of big league production, think: .270/.340/.410.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 55 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: It’s not hyperbole to say that the University of Maryland isn’t a baseball school. Actually, it’s an understatement to say that. The Terrapins have produced just four midsummer first round picks since 1967. And prior to last season the most recent was southpaw Brett Cecil 16 years ago. Infielder Matt Shaw changed that. A product of Worcester Academy, Shaw entered the Big Ten with little fanfare. The 5-foot-11, 185-pound middle infielder hit .332/.409/.544 with 16 doubles, one triple, seven homeruns, and seven stolen bases during his freshman season. And he continued to batter the competition as he moved into the Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League that summer as well, slugging .369/.469/.689 with 21 extra-base knocks in only 35 contests. Shaw’s production took a slight step back during his sophomore campaign as he slashed .290/.381/.604 with 11 doubles and 22 homeruns – then a school record for dingers. The Massachusetts native continued to swing a scorching stick as he moved into the vaunted Cape Cod League, mashing .360/.432/.574 with 10 doubles, two triples, five homeruns, and 21 stolen bases in only 36 games with the Bourne Braves. He would be named the Cad Cod Summer Player of the Year following that tremendous performance. Shaw saved his finest performance for 2023, his final jaunt through amateur ball. Appearing in a career best 62 contests, the offensive dynamo slugged .341/.445/.697 with career bests in doubles (20), homeruns (24), and stolen bases (18). Chicago selected Shaw with the 13th overall pick last summer, signing him to a deal worth $4,848,500. Shaw made stops in the Complex League, High-A, and Double-A during his debut, batting a Ruthian .357/.400/.618 in 38 games.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft scouting report:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only two Big 10 hitters batted at least .340/.440/.690 in a season (min. 275 PA): Nick Lorusso and Matt Shaw, both of whom accomplished the feat for Maryland in 2023, believe it or not.
Taking it one step further:
Since 2011, only 12 hitters at the Division I level batted at least .340/.440/.690 with 20 homeruns and more walks than strikeouts (min. 275 PA): Andrew Benintendi, Jonathan India, J.J. Bleday, Kyle Lewis, Drew Ellis, Kody Hoese, Tyler Locklear, Ivan Melendez, Sonny DiChiara, Cam Fisher, Chase Davis, and – of course – Matt Shaw, Mr. Maryland.
It’d be easy to dismiss Shaw’s dominance in the Big 10 because, well, the competition isn’t as consistently strong as, say, the SEC or ACC. But the promising middle infielder alleviated a lot of those concerns with his stellar – and dominant – performance in the Cape last summer. Easy above-average power, Shaw’s never been much of a free swinger, oft-times grinding out each plate appearance after several pitches. Above-average speed. Solid hit tool. He’s profiling as a .265/.340/.440 type infielder – though he’s likely to slide over to the right side of the keystone. The bat would also play well at the hot corner too. Shaw could be one of the surprise picks that goes earlier than expected. It wouldn’t be shocking to see a team like the Athletics or Reds snag him with the sixth or seventh overall pick.”
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 50/55 | 50/40 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: Once the difficult decision had been made, that the club had to move into yet another rebuilding phase, the front office – wisely – focused their efforts on acquiring young, potentially impact bats. And they did just that when they shipped out All-Star first baseman Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees in exchange for outfielder Kevin Alcántara and right-hander Alexander Vizcaíno. A seven-figure signing off the international market in mid-July 2018, Alcántara made the successful leap to the Carolina League in 2022 as he batted .273/.360/.451 with 40 extra-base knocks in 112 games with Myrtle Beach. The 6-foot-6, 188-pound outfielder spent the majority of last season battling – and often beating – the High-A competition: he slugged .286/.341/.466 with 25 doubles, three triples, 12 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases (in 19 attempts). His overall production with South Bend, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 24%. Alcántara spent the final two-plus weeks with the Tennessee Smokies in the Southern League.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of the more underrated prospects in the game. Alcántara owns a very loud, yet somewhat raw, toolkit. A move to a corner outfield spot is a real possibility.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-olds met the following criteria with one club in High-A (min. 350 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+, a 22.5% to 24.5% K- rate, and a 6% to 9% BB-rate. The three: Carlos Gonzalez, Matthew Sulentic, and Kevin Alcántara.
Built like an NBA shoot guard, Alcántara takes some healthy hacks at the plate, often leaving nothing to the imagination. The 6-foot-6, 188-pound wiry outfielder, who has plenty of room left on his frame to fill out as he matures, is still tapping into his above-average power all the while continuing to chew down his once-concerning strikeout rates. Last season, he whiffed in only 23.8% of his plate appearances in High-A. With that being said, the swing is a bit on the long side and he looks a bit vulnerable at the top part of the zone. The Cubs had Alcántara spend a decent amount of time in rightfield, likely his final spot thanks to the club’s depth at the position. He could handle center adequately.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50/55 | 55 |
Background: It was one surprising picks in the 2022 draft, at least during the early parts of the opening round. But the Cubs’ front office brass were enamored by Horton’s impressive repertoire and selected him with the seventh overall pick that summer, signing him to a well-below slot deal worth $4,450,000, saving the club more than $1.2 million. And Horton already looks like the best first round pitching prospect the team’s drafted since Andrew Cashner (2008) or maybe even Mark Prior (2001). After throwing just 53.2 innings during his entire collegiate career at the University of Oklahoma, courtesy of Tommy John surgery, the 6-foot-1, 211-pound right-hander blitzed through three separate levels during his professional debut last season. The former Sooner made 21 starts between Myrtle Beach (Low-A), South Bend (High-A), and Tennessee (Double-A), throwing 88.1 innings while averaging a dominant 11.9 strikeouts and just 2.8 walks per nine innings.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The lack of a consistent third option and the recent Tommy John surgery are the only things keeping him away from being the first pitcher chosen in the 2022 draft. ELECTRIC.
Scouting Report: It’s the type of arsenal that just doesn’t suggest upper rotation caliber arm, it screams it. Horton attacks hitters with an impressive, power-laden four-pitch mix: a mid- to upper-90s fastball, a big bending, knee-buckling curveball, a hellacious slider, and a workable, hard-diving changeup. I watched two of Horton’s starts. The first one his slider was plus-plus and the curveball was a little more inconsistent. In the second start it was vice versa with the curveball looking like a gift from the heavens and the slider less devastating. The former Sooner is more of a strike-thrower and not a true command guy, but he’s athletic enough (with plenty of developmental meat on the bones) that he projects to have 55-grade command. There’s some risk given his previous arm injury (Tommy John) coupled with the fact he hasn’t thrown more than 88.1 innings since leaving high school. Expect Chicago to limit his workload to around 115- to 120 innings in 2024.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate toHigh
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 55 | 35 | 60 | 50 | 55 |
Background: The opening round of the 2019 draft was loaded. Not loaded, but LOADED. It’s one of the better ones in recent memory. There’s star power, depth, talent sprinkled through the entire round and even spilling over into the second round (we see you, Gunnar Henderson). That opening round included the likes of Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, Nick Lodolo, Josh Jung, Alek Manoah, Corbin Carroll, George Kirby, and Anthony Volpe. That doesn’t include the guys that are solid, not franchise altering, big leaguers, like: Bryson Stott, Zack Thompson, Drey Jameson. Then there’s the group of ballplayers that haven’t established themselves at the big league level: Brett Baty, Quinn Priester, and Daniel Espino. Michael Busch belongs in one of those aforementioned groups, though he was previously caught in a bit of a numbers game in the Dodgers’ vast farm system and big purse strings. Taken with the 31st overall pick by LA that summer, the lefty-swinging infield vagabond spent the last three seasons squaring off against the Double-A and Triple-A competition, most of the time was spent dominating, by the way. Busch slugged .267/.386/.484 in 107 games with the Tulsa Drillers in 2021. The following year he batted an aggregate .274/.365/.516 with 38 doubles and 32 homeruns in 142 games with Tulsa and Oklahoma. And last year, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound first / second / third baseman mashed .323/.431/.618 with 26 doubles, a career best four triples, 27 homeruns, and four stolen bases (in as many tries). His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, was a staggering 50% above the league average threshold. The Dodgers called their former first round pick up for three separate, albeit short, stints in the Bigs; he batted a disappointing .167/.247/.292 in 81 plate appearances. Following the year, the front office shipper Busch to the Cubs in exchange for lefty starter Jackson Ferris and teenage outfielder Zyhir Hope, who was drafted in the 11th round just a few months earlier.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Busch put his horrific showing against lefties in 2021 (.198/.355/.354) behind him as he batted a respectable .258/.352/.477 against southpaws in 2022. 45-grade hit tool that’ll constantly register consistent batting averages in the .240- to .250-range. He seems primed to be the big league club’s next version of Max Muncy.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 25-year-old hitters posted a 145 to 155 wRC+ with a double-digit walk rate and a 17% to 20% strikeout rate with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): Taylor Ward, a career .255/.334/.429 hitter sporting a 112 wRC+, and – of course – Michael Busch.
If you listen closely you’ll hear the Cubs cracking a case of beer followed by the “Bushhhhhh” sound because – hopefully – the organization has an opening for the lefty-swinging infielder. The former North Carolina Tar Heel turned in some solid batted ball data during his second stint in Triple-A in 2023 (courtesy of Statcast, of course). Busch rarely missed in the strike zone (10% in-zone whiff rate), chased infrequently (22%), and posted a hard hit rate of 43%. His average Exit Velocity, 91.1 mph, puts him in similar company as some pretty notable names in Triple-A, like Tyler Soderstrom, Coby Mayo, Jasson Dominguez, and Ronny Mauricio. Throw in some phenomenal patience and above-average thump and Busch has the makings of an impact big league bat. Defensively, he’s better suited at a corner infield spot, but the offensive production could make him livable at the keystone. In terms of big league production, think: .250/.330/.440 with 20 to 25 dingers.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40 | 50/70 | 40/35 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: I’ve written about it ad nauseam, but the Cubs broke their World Series title draught on the backs of a collection of young hitters that were drafted and developed, signed off the international league market and developed, or acquired via trade and developed. Guys like Anthony Rizzo (trade), Addison Russell (trade), Kris Bryant (draft), Jorge Soler (international free agent), Javier Báez (draft), Willson Contreras (international free agent), Albert Almora (draft), and – of course – Joe Buck’s favorite, Kyle Schwarber (draft). And then something changed within their organizational philosophy, something that shifted the entire course of franchise and – in my opinion – ultimately shortened their window of continued contention: they started drafting pitchers. But they weren’t just any pitchers, they were crafty hurlers. And you know what they really means… Most didn’t pan out, like Thomas Hatch, Brendon Little, Cory Abbott, Paul Richan, Ryan Jensen, Burl Carraway, among others. And while the organization had to shift towards rebuilding in recent years, they went back to what they were good at: hoarding high upside hitters. The Cubbies owned one of the largest trade chips during the 2020-21 offseason in ace veteran Yu Darvish and they were able to parlay him into a package headlined by a Canadian high school slugger, Owen Caissie. Taken by the Padres that same summer, the Cubs aggressively challenged the hulking corner outfielder during his first season in the organization by pushing up to the Midwest League, despite spending just 22 games in Low-A the previous season. But Caissie quietly held his own, slugging .254/.349/.402 with 33 extra-base hits. Last season Caissie moved up to the minors’ toughest challenge, Double-A, the make-it-or-break-it level, and he passed with flying colors. Appearing in 120 games with the Tennessee Smokies, the 6-foot-3, 190-pound youngster mashed .289/.399/.519 with career bests in doubles (31), triples (two), and homeruns (22) to go along with seven stolen bases (though he was caught nine times). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, Caissie’s overall production surpassed the league average threshold by 44%, the fourth highest mark among all qualified Double-A sticks.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Equipped with some of the best bat speed in the minor leagues, Caissie uncorks a vicious left-handed swing that projects – at least – 30 homeruns at maturity. He’s just scratching the surface of his prodigious power.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only a pair of 20-year-old hitters posted a 140 to 150 wRC+ with a strikeout rate of at least 27% with one club in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): Riley Greene, a consensus Top 10 prospect who is coming off of a very solid big league season as a 22-year-old, and – of course – Owen Caissie.
Caissie is one of the most potent bats in all of the minor leagues, not just within the Cubs’ (very deep) system. The former second rounder owns some of the easiest plus (maybe even plus-plus) power around. He can absolutely punish mistakes. But that doesn’t mean he’s not without some pockmarks, namely the hit tool. The 6-foot-3, 190-pound outfielder has battled contact numbers at each stop along the way and Double-A was no different as he whiffed in more than 31% of his plate appearances. He’s also proven to a bit susceptible against southpaws as well. There’s a very real chance he climbs up into 40-homer territory. Big league production: .240/.350/.525. Eric Thames with better leather.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
60 | 40/50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Aftersigning Jordan Wicks for the recommended slot value in 2021, the front office blew past the assigned value for their second pick – James Madison High School star James Triantos. Snagged with the 56th overall pick, Chicago signed the teenage slugger to a massive $2.1 million deal, roughly $900,000 above the recommended value. Three years later it looks like it was the right move. The 6-foot-1, 195-pound second / third baseman handled his assignment in the Carolina League well enough two years ago, batting .272/.335/.386 with 19 doubles, six triples, seven homeruns, and 20 stolen bases (in 23 attempts). Last season, Triantos appeared in 80 games with the Sound Bend Cubs in High-A, putting together a similar slash line: .285/.363/.390 with 14 doubles, three triples, three homeruns, and 16 stolen bases. His production topped the league average mark by 15%, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus. Triantos spent the last few games of the year in Double-A, promptly going 4-for-12 with a double. He popped up in the fall playing – and dominating – with the Mesa Solar Sox, slugging .417/.495/.679 with three doubles, five triples, three homeruns, and nine stolen bases (in 10 attempts) in only 22 games.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Like a lot of the Cubs’ Baby Bashers, he’s still figuring out how to tap into his impressive power potential. He’s still learning the finer nuances at third base, but he should be at least an average defender.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters posted a 110 to 120 wRC+ mark with a sub-12.0% strikeout rate with one club in any High-A league (min. 300 PA): Cedric Hunter, Jose Castro, and – of course – James Triantos.
For the first time in his career, the Cubs started experimenting with Triantos at the keystone, which significantly improve his prospect stock. And, you know what, the results were very encouraging. Per Clay Davenport’s metrics the former second rounder was a +3 defender at his new position and Baseball Prospectus’s numbers had him about average. Offensively speaking, Triantos owns – arguably – the top hit tool in the entire farm system, which – again – is saying something. He may not fully tap into his true power potential, but he should be perennial threat for 15 or so homeruns. He isn’t the flashiest of prospects, but Triantos is on the precipice of developing into an above-average big leaguer.
Ceiling: 3.0- to3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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FB | CB | SL/CU | CH | Command | Overall |
50 | 50 | 55/50 | 70 | 60 | 55 |
Background: Believe it or not, the Chicago Cubs have not drafted a successful left-handed starting pitcher in the first round of the draft in franchise history. Certainly, it’s not for a lack of trying. They just haven’t identified and developed the correct one – yet. Well, maybe. It depends how Wicks’ future in the coming years plays out. The 21st overall player taken three years ago, the Kansas State product split time between South Bend and Tennessee during his first full year in the minors, posting a 121-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 94.2 innings of work. Last season, the 6-foot-3, 220-pound southpaw made 20 minor league starts with Tennessee (13) and Iowa (7), hurling 91.1 innings while averaging 9.8 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Wicks would make another seven starts with the Cubs, throwing another 34.2 innings with 24 Ks, and 11 BBs.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: I caught a couple of Wicks’ starts throughout the year last season, and each time I came away thinking he was better than I originally thought. The ceiling isn’t overly big as he’s still tracking like a #4-type arm. But he’s safe and likely to be with the Cubbies in 2023.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, there have been nine 23-year-old hurlers that posted a 28% to 30% strikeout percentage with a 7% to 9% walk percentage with one club in any Double-A league (min. 50 IP): Justin Dunn, Mark Worrell, Jharel Cotton, Eric Surkamp, Drew Parrish, Carmen Pignatiello, Rogelio Armenteros, Justin Jarvis, and Jordan Wicks.
Four-fifths of Wicks’ repertoire belongs to a spot starter: average low 92 mph fastball, fringy average curveball, a slightly better (but still average) slider, and a nice upper-80s cutter. But it’s his fifth offering, a plus-plus changeup, that’s going to make him quite a bit of big league money. It’s a bonafide swing-and-miss pitch sitting roughly 12 mph less than his average fastball, which allows that heater to play up. The former Kansas State ace commands the zone well and has the build to chew through a lot of innings. #4-type starter, a la Joran Montgomery.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 55 | 35/20 | 55 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: At various points throughout the year the Tennessee Smokies, the organization’s Double-A affiliate, rolled through as much hitting talent as any club in the entire minor leagues with the likes of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie, James Triantos, Matt Shaw, B.J. Murray, Pablo Aliendo, and – of course – Moisés Ballesteros. Signed off the international free agent market for $1.2 million bonus just three years ago, the lefty-swinging backstop has been on the fast-track to the big leagues practically from the first day. The bulky catcher reached Low-A by the end of 2022, just his second professional season. And last year, as previously noted, he accrued some precious experience – however short it may have been – in Double-A. As a teenager. Playing the single most demanding position, mentally and physically. Making stops at three separate levels, Ballesteros batted an impressive .285/.375/.449 with 27 doubles, 14 homeruns, and seven stolen bases (without getting caught). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 31%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Soft body lefty-swinging backstop owns plus raw power, which started to show up in games in Complex League and Low-A. His swing is a bit long and the hit tool doesn’t project that well.
Scouting Report: It’s impressive when any teenager cracks a Double-A lineup, but it’s doubly – maybe even triply – impressive when a catcher does. Ballesteros’ tenure at the level – and pretty much his entire season – was certainly stuck in the shadows of Ethan Salas, who took the minor league world by storm, but that doesn’t make Ballesteros’ rise any less impressive. He’s what you’d call, at least if you were in the Moneyball movie, a bad body catcher. But the man-child does not get cheated at the plate, taking massive cut after massive cut. Still not a huge believer in the hit tool because the swing looks long. But there’s above-average power at an obviously offensive-deficient position at the big league level. Defensively, he looked better than his the previous year. The bat is a premium if he can stay behind the dish, which would make him a lot of big league dough.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 50/55 | 55 | 35/40 | 50 |
Background: One of the more surprising picks in the 2022 draft. The Cubs’ brass selected Oklahoma right-hander Cade Horton, who was fresh off of his return from Tommy John surgery, with the seventh overall pick that summer. And so far that calculated gamble has paid off handsomely as the hard-throwing hurler vaulted through Low-A, High-A- and looked remarkably solid in his debut in Double-A. A year later the club took another calculated gamble, this time grabbing fellow Oklahoma-born right-hander – and oft-times dominant University of Arkansas arm – Jaxon Wiggins, who also happened to miss the year due to Tommy John surgery. A product of Roland High School, Wiggins split his freshman season in the SEC between the Razorbacks’ rotation and bullpen, throwing just 23.0 innings with 28 punch outs, 14 walks, and an unsightly 5.09 ERA. Arkansas pushed the sophomore hurler into a full-time starting gig in 2022. And it was much the same as he averaged 11.2 strikeouts and 5.9 walks per nine innings to go along with a 6.55 ERA. After the Cubs selected him in the second round, 68th overall, they signed him to an above-slot bonus worth $1.4 million, roughly $300,000 north of the recommended value.
Scouting Report: Unsurprisingly, Wiggins is equipped with an ace-like repertoire highlighted by a plus mid-90s heater with plenty of carry and some arm side run. He complements it with an above-average power changeup, and a low- to mid-80s slider, which he struggled to command but showed plenty of promise. The key for Wiggins is quite simple: can he throw enough strikes (not quality strikes, just strikes). He has the prototypical build, phenomenal repertoire, but it’s going to come down to strike-throwing ability.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
The post Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects for 2024 appeared first on Project Digest.
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50/60 | 40/50 | 60 | 50 | 50/55 | 60 |
Background: The Red Sox have had an impressive run of shortstops over the past several decades beginning with John Valentin and continuing through the end of Xander Bogaerts’ tenure basically uninterrupted. In other words, they’re kind of in uncharted waters for the time being, at least until Trevor Story can stay on the field or Marcelo Mayer can make his way up to The Bigs. But there’s something else fascinating about the Red Sox’s string of shortstops, or maybe just their shortstops in general. They’ve never really hit on a high school shortstop in the first round of the draft. They’ve missed plenty of times on guys like Joel Bishop, Ted Cox, Ryan Dent, Casey Kelly, and Michael Chavis, so the Fenway faithful have to be rooting for Mayer’s continued development. The fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft class, one which was extraordinarily heavily on shortstops early on, Mayer has looked the part of a potential franchise cornerstone throughout the majority of his minor league career. The 6-foot-2, 188-pound middle infielder looked steady in the Complex League during his debut (.275/.377/.440) and he followed that up by hitting .280/.399/.489 in 91 games between Low-A and High-A in 2022. Last season, Mayer started off in similar fashion as he slugged .290.366/.524 with 11 doubles, one triple, seven homeruns, and five stolen bases in only 35 games back with Greenville. His numbers, though, took a dramatic downfall after his promotion up to Double-A, the minors’ toughest challenge. The former first round pick batted a pathetic .189/.254/.355 with eight doubles, one triple, and six homeruns in 43 contests with Portland. His production, during his first – and certainly not his last – stint in Double-A was 37% below the league average, per Weighted Runs Created Plus. A left shoulder issue knocked him out of action in early August.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s a little more-and-miss to his game than expected, but it shouldn’t be a problem in the long term. Defensively, he should have no problems sticking at the position and may even sneak into a couple Gold Glove conversations.
Scouting Report: For the second consecutive season Mayer (A) missed considerable time and (B) accrued less than 100 games in a season. The talented shortstop’s 2023 season was curtailed in early August due to a shoulder impingement (and he suffered a setback before Thanksgiving, though it’s not expected to inhibit his start to 2024). With that being said, it’s difficult to determine how the shoulder impacted his performance, particularly after his promotion up to Double-A. For now, Mayer’s struggles in Double-A aren’t overly concerning. He owns a lightning quick bat that’s built for peppering doubles and slugging 20+ homeruns at Fenway Park. He handles righties and lefties well and could contend for a batting title or two at the big league level. Defensively, he’s rock solid, above-average. Mayer is still tracking like a potential .310/.390/.450 type hitter at the game’s pinnacle level.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 45 | 55 | 40 | 70 | 55 |
Background: It might not be the best $10,000 the Boston Red Sox have ever spent, but it’s certainly on the short list of better investments, particularly over the past couple of decades. But that’s what the club handed the young Curacaoan prospect in 2017. Rafaela plodded through the foreign and stateside rookie leagues, as well as Low-A without raising much notoriety. But the pint-sized dynamo had a massive breakout in 2022. Splitting time between Greenville and Portland, the 5-foot-9, 165-pound middle infielder / centerfielder bashed .299/.342/.539 with 32 doubles, 10 triples, 21 homeruns, and 28 stolen bases (in 35 attempts) in only 116 games of action. Last season, Rafaela continued his assault on minor league hurlers as he slugged .302/.349/.520 with 31 doubles, three triples, 20 homeruns, and a career best 36 stolen bases (though he was caught 13 times)in 108 games. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average threshold by a rock solid 23%. Boston called up the then-22-year-old prospect and let him get acclimated for what should be a very promising big league career. Rafaela batted .241/.281/.386 with eight extra-base hits in 28 games (89 plate appearances) with the Red Sox.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of the best athletes in a farm loaded with tools. The lone knock thus far has been his walk abhorrence as he’s found first base via the walk in fewer than 6% of his plate appearances since the start of 2021. Meaning: his offensive value is only going to go as far as his batting averages take him.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 250 PA): 105 to 115 wRC+, a 4.5% to 6.5% walk rate, and a 19.5% to 21.5% strikeout rate. Those four bats: Oscar Mercado, Mike McDade, Keury De La Cruz, and – of course – Mr. $10,000, Ceddanne Rafaela.
Always aggressive at the plate, Rafaela’s Statcast data in Triple-A only supports that notion. The part-time shortstop / part-time second baseman / sometimes centerfielder makes a lot of in-zone contact but expands the zone frequently as well. He doesn’t strike out all that frequently (21% of the time in 2023), and he can absolutely put a jolt into the ball. Rafaela tallied a 48% Hard Hit Rate with Worcester. Plus defender in centerfield. He profiles as a sparkplug and impact glove for a contender, like the Red Sox. He’s a potential .280/.330/.430 bat.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 40/45 | 40 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: The 2022seasonbrought about something that hadn’t happened in decades.For the first time since the organization grabbed Josh Garrett (26th overall), Chris Reitsma (34th overall), and Gary Locurto (39th overall) all the way back in 1996, the Red Sox used their first three picks on high schoolers in 2022, nabbing Mikey Romero (24th), Cutter Coffey (41st), and Roman Anthony (79th). Interestingly enough, it was Anthony, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound centerfielder, that earned the largest bonus of the three, signing with the historic franchise for a hefty $2.5 million pact. The Florida-born outfielder batted a solid, though punchless, .306/.374/.361 during his 20-game debut between the Complex League and Salem later that summer. Last season, Anthony kicked it into hyper-drive as he motored through 42 games back in Low-A, another 54 games with Greenville in High-A, and a 10-game cameo in Double-A. He slugged an aggregate .272/.403/.466 with 27 doubles, four triples, 14 homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 23 total attempts). His production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the average by 43%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Lean, but strong, muscular. Average arm and speed, Anthony may eventually move away from center field as his wiry frame begins to fill out. Lefty-swinging hitter with a prototypical line-drive swing and doesn’t project to hit more than 20 homeruns during his peak. Solid all around approach, but there doesn’t seem to be a true standout offensive tool.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in the South Atlantic League, consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 19-year-old kids posted a wRC+ of at least 160 with one club in any High-A league (min. 225 PA): Jackson Holliday, the consensus Top Prospect in baseball, Wil Myers, who was a consensus top prospect during his minor league time, and – of course – Roman Anthony. But here’s the thing, though, Holliday and Myers posted very solid contact numbers during their High-A tenure, 20.9% and 15.8%. Anthony whiffed in more than 30% of his PAs.
Anthony’s High-A numbers are intriguing, not because of the dominance – and he definitely was dominant – but because his swing-and-miss numbers are way out of whack compared to anything else he’s shown so far. He’s a tough at bat due to his ability to fight off quality pitches, as well as layoff off offerings just off the plate. His swing is interesting because it’s not geared toward hitting the long ball and his batted ball data backs that up. He’s putting the ball on the ground north of 50%. Very, very patient approach at the plate, he’s tracking a 55-grade bat with strong OBP skills, 12 or 15 homers, and a handful of bags. It looks like he has enough leather to stay in center, where his offense profiles better.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 50 | 35 | 55 | 50 | 55 |
Background: The Los Angeles Dodgers’ 1989 draft class was a rather forgettable one – except that their third round selection, Phil Nevin, would eventually go on to become the top overall pick three years later after a stout career at California State University. Buried down deep in their draft class was a college backstop from William Paterson University, who would eventually spend parts of five non-descript, light-hitting seasons in the low levels of the minor leagues. That catcher: Garett Teel, who would bat a paltry .166/.270/.223 in 107 professional games. Twenty-four years later Garett’s oldest kid, Kyle, became the first college backstop (and second catcher overall) taken off the board in the midsummer draft, making him the highest drafted Cavalier catcher in school history. A rock solid starter since his true freshman season in 2021, the lefty-swinging backstop opened up his collegiate career by slugging .335/.416/.526 with 11 doubles, one triple, and nine homeruns for the Cavaliers. He would spend the ensuing summer splitting time between the National Squad (.233/.343/.333) and the Wisconsin Rapids Rafters in the Northwoods League (.277/.436/.426). Like fellow 2023 early first rounder Jacob Gonzalez, Teel’s production took a noticeable step back during his sophomore season as he batted .276/.402/.439 with just 12 doubles, three triples, and six homeruns. And he struggled during his brief stints with Team USA and the Harwich Mariners in the Cape Cod League. But things seemed to click for Teal as he put together a borderline historic season to cap off his career. Appearing in a career best 65 games for the ACC powerhouse, the 6-foot-1, 190-pound backstop mashed .407/.475/.655 with 25 doubles, 13 homeruns, and five stolen bases in 2023. Boston grabbed Teel in opening round last summer, 14th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $4 million. He batted a sizzling .363/.483/.495 during his debut in the Complex League, High-A, and Double-A.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only two (2) ACC hitters have eclipsed the .400 batting average mark in a season (min. 250 PA): Miami’s Yohandy Morales and – of course – Kyle Teel, both of whom accomplished the feat in 2023.
Teel combines explosive bat speed and a strong feel for the strike zone that allows him to pepper the ball indiscriminately around the diamond. The lefty-swinging backstop showed average power but there’s more in the tank as he continues to mature. There’s a chance for an above-average hit tool and power at full maturity. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals snag him with the eighth overall pick.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40/50 | 50/60 | 55 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
Background: Things turned quickly for Bleis, the former Bonus Baby off the international free agent market. The 6-foot, 170-pound outfielder was coming off of a massive campaign in the Complex League in 2022, slugging a scorching .301/.353/.543 with 14 doubles, four triples, five homeruns, and 18 stolen bases in only 40 games. And it looked like the Dominican sparkplug was going to carry that momentum over into a strong showing in the Carolina League too. He began by hitting .304/.344/.375 over his first 13 games but his bat cooled and he eventually hit the disabled at the end of May, never to return. He finished the year with a.270/.282/.325 slash line, belting out seven extra-base hits in 31 games. As for the injury, it was termed a left shoulder subluxation which eventually required surgery.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: As quick of a bat as you’ll see on any 18-year-old in the game nowadays. The lone pockmark on his otherwise phenomenal showing was the bloated strikeout rate. Bleis may be one of the bigger prospects that pop in 2023.
Scouting Report: Built physically like future Hall of Famer – and former Red Sox star – Mookie Betts. Bleis’s swing, simply put, looks so effortless, so incredible natural. It just looks like he’s going to be an impact bat. But, alas, baseball is much more than that. Blazing bat speed, power to dream on. Bleis can run well and profiles as a solid centerfield with premium defense in right field. All the ingredients are present, whether the hit tool allows him to take full advantage of that is an entirely different question.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 50 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 50 |
Background: It’s not too often that a high schooler is listed as a second baseman on draft day like Nick Yorke in 2020. In fact, the 5-foot-11, 200-pound Archbishop Mitty product is one of just eight teenagers that were drafted in the opening round as keystone players since 2000. And let’s just say the track record for the players taken before him is less than successful: Blake DeWitt, the former Dodgers farmhand turned into the only notable big leaguer. After sitting out the remainder of the season due to the pandemic, Yorke burst out of the gates like a bat out of hell in 2021, putting together a sizzling .325/.412/.516 slash line between Salem and Greenville. The following year, though, Yorke’s production took a noticeable – and injury-plagued – step backward as he was limited to just 80 games back in the South Atlantic League; he would cobble together a disappointing .232/.303/.365 production line, plummeting his once surging prospect status to the depths of the South Atlantic. Last year, the 5-foot-11, 200-pound second baseman had a quietly solid bounce back year in the minors’ toughest level: Double-A. Appearing in a career best 110 games with the Portland Sea Dogs, Yorke batted .268/.350/.435 with 25 doubles, five triples, 13 homeruns, and 18 stolen bases (in 23 total attempts). His production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a solid 16%, which marked a 32-percentage point improvement from the previous season.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Despite the significant downturn in production, Yorke seems primed for (A) significant playing time in the most challenging minor league level, Double-A, and (B) a tremendous bounce back campaign in 2023.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 21-year-olds put together a 110 to 120 wRC+ mark with a 9% to 11% walk rate and a 23% to 25% strikeout rate with one club in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): Nick Gordon, Jaff Decker, and Yorke. The former two, by the way, were once considered consensus Top 100 prospects.
Surprisingly bulky for a second baseman, Yorke’s profile has changed considerably since his fabulous debut campaign in 2021. He’s morphed from a plus hit tool, below-average power to an average hitter with matching pop. Solid defensively, though he’ll never be confused for Bill Mazeroski, Yorke is a tremendous low ball hitter and seems to have trouble making consistent, quality contact at the top of the zone. I’m still a believer in his ceiling as a quality big league second sacker. In terms of production, think: .265/.340/.420. He’s scrappy. I like scrappy players.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 55 | 55 | 35 | 50 |
Background: Better than most organizations at finding and signing below-the-radar talent on the international scene, Luis Perales, who joined the organization on a deal worth just $75,000, is just another example on the front office’s growing list. The Guacara, Venezuela native made his professional in 2021, though it lasted exactly two innings before an undisclosed injury knocked him out for the remainder of the year. Two years ago, the 6-foot-1, 160-pound hurler split time between the Complex and the Carolina Leagues, throwing 35.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and 20 free passes to go along with a sparkling 1.77 ERA. Last season, Perales returned to Salem for some additional seasoning, making 13 starts before moving up to High-A for another eight games. He would throw a career-best 89.2 innings, more than doubling his career high entering the year, averaging 11.5 punch outs and a whopping 5.0 walks per nine innings. He tallied a 3.91 ERA between both affiliates.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: If it weren’t for the facial hair, you’d assume that Perales was working for your local U15 traveling team. Then you watch unfurl one of the most explosive 95-mph heaters in the minor leagues and question everything you thought about the generously listed 6-foot-1 right-hander. He’s definitely a name to watch in 2023.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, there have been seven 20-year-old hurlers that tallied a 30.5% to 32.5% strikeout percentage with an 11.5% to 13.5% walk percentage with one club in any Low-A league (min. 50 IP): Matt Manning, Brailyn Marquez, Robinson Pina, A.J. Alexy, Alexander Smit, Jhancarlos Lara, and Luis Perales.
A short-arm swing with a high, over the top release that creates some added life at the top of the zone. The young right-hander features a plus, mid- to upper-90s heater hovering in the 96 mph range. He features an above-average power curveball, and one helluva changeup, of the power variety, of course. Perales’s command / control plateaued since joining the organization, so there’s obvious reliever risk. The repertoire suggests a quality #4-starter if he can push his command into the 45-grade range. Definite room for improvement in the ceiling.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2026
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FB | CB | CH | Command | Overall |
60 | 60 | 55/60 | 40 | 50 |
Background: The hurler’s weight, if you’re so inclined to believe the online MiLB biographies, has yo-yoed quite a bit throughout his young career, going from a wispy 147 pounds at the time of his signing up to 200 pounds heading into the 2023 season and now back down 167 pounds. It’s likely not accurate, but it’s what’s listed. Either way, though, no matter how Gonzalez’s weight may – or may not – fluctuate he’s continued his ascension through the club’s farm system with a fat total of strikeouts (he’s averaging 11.6 K/9 for his career) and a bloated number of walks (4.8 BB/9). And his 2023 campaign was the epitome of that. Splitting time between Greenville (15 starts, 63.0 innings) and Portland (10 starts, 48.1 innings), Gonzalez struck out an impressive 168 hitters but managed to miss the strike zone so frequently that he issued 70 free passes. He finished the year with averages of 13.6 K/9, a career high, and 5.7 BB/9, also a career high, with a 3.96 ERA.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: A bit of a silver lining: he finished the year on a high note, walking just eight over his final 28 innings. Mid-rotation caliber potential, definitely more if he can throw consistent strikes – particularly with his offspeed offerings.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 21-year-old hurlers have tallied a strikeout percentage north of 35% with one club in any High-A league (min. 60 IP): Connor Phillips, DJ Herz, Will Klein, and –of course – Wikelman Gonzalez. Perhaps coincidentally – or not – each of the aforementioned pitchers posted a massively high walk percentage or at least 12.5%.
Gonzalez may not have the best repertoire in minor league baseball, but he’s certainly among those that should get mentioned in the conversation. The former international free agent features a mid- to upper-90s plus fastball, a plus curveball, and an inconsistent, yet devastating changeup that garners plenty of swing-and-misses (when he can throw it for strikes). Gonzalez is a max effort guy that lets it fly on every pitch. It doesn’t matter is it’s a fastball or offspeed offering. It doesn’t matter if he’s ahead or behind in count. It doesn’t matter if runners are on or the bases are empty. He’s throws it hard every single time. It’s going to a miracle to get Gonzalez to throw strikes consistently. He’s young enough that someone within the organization may be able to work wonders, but the odds aren’t high. Impact relief floor if nothing else.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 45/50 | 30 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: Jordan burst onto the scene with as much hype as any third round pick in recent memory – maybe even in the draft’s history. And you know what? He’s quietly been one of the better, more consistent bats in the minor leagues throughout the duration of his career. Jordan, who rose to fame thanks to his prolific homeruns throughout his amateur career, has shown a better hit tool and not quite as much pop as once prognosticated. Two years ago, the 6-foot-2, 220-pound corner infielder batted .289/.363/.445 with 30 doubles, three triples, 12 homeruns, and a quintet of stolen bases (in six attempts). Last season, he – once again – split time between two separate levels, going from a second tour in the South Atlantic League on up to Portland in Double-A. He finished the year with an aggregate .296/.351/.481 with career bests in doubles (32) and homeruns (18) along with a three-bagger and a pair of swipes. Jordan’s overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by 24%, another quietly solid showing by the first / third baseman.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Each time he digs in at the dish he has bad intentions. Bobby Dalbec with a better hit tool.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 20-year-old bats posted a 140 to 150 wRC+ mark with a K-rate between 13% and 16% with one club in any High-A league (min. 300 PA): Tyson Gillies, a participant in the 2009 Futures Game, and Blaze Jordan.
Jordan’s not only quelled any questions about his hit tool, but he’s proven that it’s quietly becoming an above-average weapon. His pitch recognition, especially on breaking balls, is solid. And I’m still betting that the plus raw power eventually starts to show up in games at some point, even if it hovers in the 20-homer range. He’s pretty slow and plodding. And he’s certainly not a true third baseman either. But there’s some Josh Naylor-type qualities developing here.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 40/45 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Romero was the first of three straight high school selections by the Red Sox to open up their 2022 draft class. And, perhaps surprisingly, the front office would go on to snag just one more prep prospect among their next 10 picks. Romero’s selection also marked the second consecutive season in which the brass opted for a high school shortstop in the opening round, and their fourth straight draft where they selected a prep hitter with their first pick as well. A product of Orange Lutheran High School, the 5-foot-11, 175-pound lefty-swinging infielder got off to a torrid start to his professional career, slashing an impressive .304/.368/.506 with 11 extra-base knocks in only 19 games between the Complex League and Salem. But as well as his debut went, his follow up campaign went just as poorly. Missing the first several months of the year due to back issues, which is never a good sign, Romero would make his 2023 debut in the Complex League in late June, going 6-for-24 with a double. The brass would push him up to Salem at the end of the first week of July, but after a strong start with the club’s Low-A affiliate, Romero, who batted .310/.355/.379 in seven games, quickly turned cold and never recovered as he hit .164/.241/.247 the rest of the year.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Romero has the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, but the [young] infielder lacks the arm strength to make deep throws. A move to second base seems likely – and that’s before considering that the club’s top prospect – Marcelo Mayer – isn’t moving away from the infield’s most important position. Good bat but lacks current power, Romero projects to add 12- to 15 homeruns at his peak with plenty of doubles in the gaps.
Scouting Report: It was basically a lost year for Romero with nothing to be gleaned from his limited, injury-stricken campaign. With that being said, Romero remains one of the tougher at bats in the club’s lower levels, never giving in, always fighting off tough pitch after tough pitch. He looked rusty when I saw him, just a bit off timing wise at the plate. His 2024 season will go a long ways towards pointing which path he’s going to take – big league starter or utility man extraordinaire.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
The post Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects for 2024 appeared first on Project Digest.
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
70 | 50/55 | 55 | 55 | 50/55 | 70 |
Background: There are family bloodlines, and there are family bloodlines. Jackson Holliday comes from family bloodlines. The sweet-swinging shortstop’s grandfather, Tom Holliday, was a long-time Head Coach for the baseball team at Oklahoma State University. The lefty-swinging infielder’s uncle, former minor leaguer Josh Holliday, is the current Head Coach for the school’s baseball team. And his dad is seven-time MLB All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger Award winner Matt Holliday. Oh, yeah, his younger brother, Ethan, is viewed as one of the best high school players in the nation. Now that is a bloodline. So it’s no surprise that Jackson Holliday, the #1 overall pick just two years ago, has climbed through the minor leagues so quickly, so efficiently, like a shark’s fin cutting through calm waters. After signing his name on the dotted line for a hefty $8,190,000 bonus, Holliday bashed .297/.489/.422 in 20 games between the Florida Complex League and Low-A. Last season, barely a year-and-a-half outside of high school, Holliday continued his assault on any pitcher standing in his way. He slugged .396/.522/.660 in 14 games in the Carolina League. He mashed .314/.452/.488 in 57 contests with the Aberdeen IronBirds in High-A. His 36-game cameo in the fires of Double-A did nothing to slow his bat as he slugged .338/.421/.507. He was then promoted up to Triple-A for the last few weeks of the year and then – and only then – did the supremely gifted youngster look human – almost (.267/.396/.400). The 6-foot, 185-pound future face of the franchise finished the year off with an aggregate .323/.442/.499 slash line with 30 doubles, nine triples, 12 homeruns, and 24 stolen bases (in 33 total attempts). His aggregate production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, blew past the league average threshold by a whopping 59%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Beautiful left-handed swing that’s going to spray line drives from foul line to foul line without too much bais. There’s a chance the hit tool develops into a perennial .300 hitter during his peak in the professional ranks. Holliday isn’t going to hit mammoth homeruns, but he should hit 20 dingers that leave the park in a hurry. Defensively, he has the chops to stay at the position. Smooth, quick, not flashy. He’s a blue-collar shortstop that has a chance to grade out as above-average.
Scouting Report: With respect to Holliday’s time in High-A, his longest stint of the year, consider the following:
Since 2006, only one 19-year-old hitter – Jackson Holliday – posted a wRC+ mark north of 160 with one club in any High-A league (min. 250 PA).
Continuing:
Since 2006, only two 19-year-old hitters – Jackson Holliday and Byron Buxton – posted a wRC+ mark north of 150 with one club in any High-A league (min. 250 PA).
Continuing:
Since 2006, only five 19-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ mark north of 140 with one club in any High-A league (min. 250 PA): Jackson Holliday, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Heliot Ramos
One final note:
Ignoring Jackson, only one of those players, Ramos, hasn’t gone on to develop into an All-Star player at the game’s pinnacle level.
A year after the draft, it’s incredible to think that any other player was in the conversation for the top pick in the draft. To be frank, Jackson Holliday’s as close to a perfect prospect as possible: plus-plus hit tool, tremendous pitch recognition, speed, defense at a premium position, handles lefties and righties equally well, average power with the potential to creep into 55-grade territory. It’s scary to think how the Orioles are set on the left side of the infield with Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson for a decade. Big league line: .320/.410/.500.
Ceiling: 7.0-win player
Risk: Low toModerate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55/60 | 50/55 | 45/30 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Signedoff the international free agency market in mid-January three years ago. The front office handed the 6-foot-3, 180-pound backstop / first baseman a $1.3 million bonus, which, according to MLB Pipeline, was the largest the organization had given out to an international free agent — at that time, at least. The early returns on Basallo were a bit disappointing as he batted .239/.338/.410 in 41 games with the club’s Dominican Summer League affiliate. The following year, 2022, Basallo moved stateside into the Complex League and looked much improved: he hit .279/.350/.424 as one of the level’s youngest regulars. Last season, the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native turned in a massive breakout campaign, moving from Low-A up to High-A, and he even spent a little bit of time with Bowie in the Eastern League – at the ripe ol’ age of 18. The former Bonus Baby put together a sizzling .313/.402/.551 slash line with 26 doubles, seven triples, 20 homeruns, and a dozen stolen bases (in 17 total attempts). His overall production, as calculated by Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a mindboggling 62%. Again, he was 18-years-old and reached Double-A. That can’t be understated.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Long and wiry with a bit of a soft body, Basallo’s swing is geared toward jacking homeruns. Above-average bat speed. But theirs is some concern that he outgrows the catching position, so first base may be the only logical landing spot. He’s very, very raw behind the plate as it stands, anyways. He could be primed for a big season with the bat in 2023.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only five 18-year-old hitters posted a wRC+ mark between 145 and 155 with one club in any Low-A league (min. 350 PA): Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jon Singleton, and – of course – Samuel Basallo.
Basallo approaches at bats like a 10-year big league veteran, not an 18-year-old kid battling against vastly older competition. He is destined to get slapped with the “Professional Hitter” label at some point in his career. Sweet left-handed swing that is going to be good for strong batting averages, plenty of doubles, and 20 or so homeruns annually. The bat is a premium behind the dish, where his defense improved dramatically from the previous year, but the stick will ultimately play anywhere. The kid just rakes, man. In terms of big league production, think: .280/.350/.440. The ceiling improves dramatically if he can stay behind the plate.
Ceiling: 4.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 45 | 55 |
Background: It truly is amazing how well the Orioles have drafted – and developed – players since Mike Elias took over at the helm. Take, for example, the COVID-limited 2020 draft. It was easy to swing-and-miss on prospects at any point in the process. Limited scouting reports, wrecked amateur seasons. It was the perfect storm for mistake making. And, somehow, the Orioles’ brass navigated the rough waters with ease. They hit on their first two picks (Heston Kjerstad and Jordan Westburg). Coby Mayo, their fourth round pick that summer, has been a consensus Top 100 prospect. And that doesn’t include the potential value from second rounder Hudson Haskin or fifth round Carter Baumler, either. Mayo split that see between Bowie and Norfolk, slugging .290/.410/.564 with career bests in doubles (45), triples (three), and homeruns (29). His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, smashed past the league average mark by a whopping 56%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Plus-plus raw power that he’s just starting to pull into games. There isn’t a ballpark in the world that can contain one of his prodigious blasts.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, there are 218 instances in which a 21-year-old hitter accrued 325 or more plate appearances with one club in any Double-A league. Coby Mayo’s 178 wRC+ mark is tops among the list – by a wide margin. The runner-up, Joc Pederson, was 22-percentage points below Mayo.
In any given year, any farm system would be lucky have Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, Enrique Bradfield, or Coby Mayo sitting atop their Top 20 list. At this point, it’s just an embarrassment of riches for the Orioles. To put it frankly, Mayo’s a better version of Ryan Mountcastle. The former fourth rounder’s batted ball data in Triple-A is pretty solid: he’ll swing-and-miss a little too much in the strike zone, but won’t look outside the zone all that often either. His hit tool is likely going to keep his batting averages in the .260 range at the big league level, but there’s 25-plus homerun pop and some solid OBPs to be had. Defensively, he plays third base like a hulking first baseman.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45/50 | 55 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
Background: As the old saying goes, “Good things come to those who wait.” And wait the Orioles did. For nearly two years. After Baltimore’s brass used the second overall pick in the 2020 COVID-limited draft, it would take the former Arkansas Razorback two full years before he would make his professional debut. The cause: myocarditis, inflammation of the heart, which was undiagnosed heading into the midsummer draft but discovered during the physical portion following it. As each month faded into the next, it was easy to forget about Heston Kjerstad, but almost immediately upon getting the green light the 6-foot-3, 205-pound corner outfielder has done nothing but hit. And hit. And hit. He split time between Delmarva and Aberdeen during his abbreviated debut two years ago, batting an aggregate .309/.394/.457 in 65 contests. Following the season he caught fire in the heat of the Arizona Fall League, slugging .357/.385/.622 with 15 extra-base knocks in only 22 contests with the Scottsdale Scorpions. Last season, Kjerstad continued his assault on the minor leagues as he manhandled the Eastern and International Leagues competition to the tune of .303/.376/.528 with 29 doubles, eight triples, 21 homeruns, and five stolen bases (in nine attempts). His overall production in the minors, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 33% above the league average mark. Kjerstad appeared in 13 games with the Orioles as well, batting .233/.281/.467 with a doubles and two dingers.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Very similar swing as former All-Star Sean Casey. Kjerstad also showed a surprising amount of agility in right field as well. He’s poised to be one of the bigger breakouts in 2023. After his strong AFL, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the O’s push him directly up to Double-A at the start of year.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 24-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 300 PA): 110 to 120 wRC+, a 7% to 9% walk rate, and a 19.5% to 21.5% strikeout rate. Those two hitters: Danny Dorn (no relation to Roger), and – of course – Heston Kjerstad.
Yet another one of the club’s promising, big league ready bats that can step in today. Kjerstad looked solid during his Triple-A debut in 2023, but there are some pockmarks to his game: namely, his willingness to expand the strike zone. Per culled Statcast data, Kjerstad would chase offerings outside the zone 37% of the time, roughly 30% above the MLB average. Kjerstad still looks like a Sean Casey clone at the plate, though the hit tool won’t ever ascend to that status. Plus-plus raw power. Kjerstad lost a ton of development time, so there’s hope he can continue to make adjustments.
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 30/40 | 80 | 55 | 80 | 55 |
Background: American Heritage High School, based out of Plantation, Florida, has had several notable ballplayers stroll through its hallowed halls, including: Eric Hosmer, who was the third overall pick in 2008, Triston Casas, Shaun Anderson, Zack Collins, Deven Marrero, Darnell Sweeney, Mark Vientos, and Antoan Richardson. Enrique Bradfield Jr.’s name certainly belongs on the list as well. Ranked as the nation’s 13th best outfielder by Perfect Game during his prep days, Bradfield stepped into Vanderbilt’s lineup as a true freshman and immediately became a key cog for one of the top programs in the country. The slashing centerfielder batted .336/.451/.414 with eight doubles, four triples, one homerun, and 47 stolen bases, the highest total among all Division I players. He would eventually be named SEC Freshman of the Year, as well as a consensus All-American, and Freshman All-American. Bradfield’s sophomore campaign was much the same: he hit .317/.415/.498 with 10 doubles, five triples, eight homeruns, and 46 swipes, which tied for second among all D1 players. He spent the ensuing summer splitting time with Team USA (.190/.370/.381 in seven games) and the Cotuit Kettleers in the Cape Cod League (.194/.348/.194 in 11 games). Last season, Bradfield’s production took a noticeable step backwards as he batted a career worst .279/.410/.429 with 13 doubles, two triples, six homeruns, and 37 stolen bases. Baltimore snagged the speedy centerfielder in the opening round, 17th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $4,169,700. He made brief stops in the Complex, Carolina, and South Atlantic Leagues during his debut, batting .291/.473/.329 with three doubles and a whopping 25 stolen bases (in 27 attempts) in only 25 games.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“There’s no such thing as stealing first base, but Bradfield’s incredibly patient approach is the next best thing. An absolute grinder at the dish, the speedy centerfielder’s finished each of his three seasons in the SEC with more walks than strikeouts. He’s a difference maker on the base paths and in the outfield. The question for Bradfield, though, is he going to hit enough in the professional ranks? Very mechanical swing, almost robotic-like where he’s going through the various stages in his head before actually moving. The Commodore star has made noticeable tweaks to his approach between his sophomore and junior seasons. Two years ago he shifted his weight back entirely off his front foot and would uncoil like a lurching snake. This season it’s a lot stiffer with less movement and a wider base. At the very least, Bradfield profiles as a speedy, glove-first backup outfielder, maybe more if the leather grades out in plus territory. If he can hit .260 and get on base at a .340 clip he becomes a borderline All-Star performer thanks to his speed. The floor of a Myles Straw-type.”
After watching some pro game tape, Bradfield could be the gold standard when it comes to MLB centerfield defense for a decade. He’s that good. If he comes close to even the league average offensive production, he’s going to make a lot of money as one of the game’s premium outfielders.
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: High
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Right up there with Death and Taxes, the Orioles grabbing a polished collegiate bat – or a few polished collegiate bats – in the opening round of the draft is practically immutable at this point. So it’s not surprising that Baltimore followed up the Jackson Holliday selection with three consecutive collegiate sticks: Dylan Beavers, Max Wagner, and Jud Fabian, all of whom now rank among the club’s better minor leaguers. Taken with the 33rd overall pick that summer, Beavers looked incredibly comfortable during his abbreviated 23-game debut in the Complex League, Low-A, and High-A, batting .322/.438/.460. Last season, the 6-foot-4, 206-pound outfield vagabond split time with Aberdeen and Bowie, slugging a combined .288/.383/.467 with 35 doubles, six triples, 11 homeruns, and 27 stolen bases (in 37 total attempts). His overall production, as measured by Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 32% above the league average threshold.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Very simple, low maintenance swing that belies the 55-grade thump he’s packing. League average starter potential, maybe a tick more.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria with a club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 120 to 130 wRC+, a double-digit BB-rate, and a 22% to 24% K-rate. Those three: Derek Fisher, Darrien Miller, and Dylan Beavers.
Beavers hit a few important checkboxes for the Orioles: he was a polished collegiate bat and he was young for the class. Short, compact swing that allows him to stay inside the baseball well. He has a little bit of Darryl Strawberry swing to him, though I don’t think he comes close to matching that type of in-game pop. The ceiling isn’t extraordinary because he’s lacking elite tools, but the floor is quite high. I think he ultimately becomes a hit over power guy that can handle all three spots in the outfield.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: After the front office (surprisingly) nabbed Sam Houston State University star Colton Cowser with the fifth overall pick in 2021, the Orioles honed in on another non-traditional baseball school for their second selection, picking East Carolina University infielder Connor Norby. The 41st overall pick that summer, Norby left the American Athletic Conference school sporting a spectacular .392/.458/.596 slash line in 105 total games. And, for the most part, he’s transitioned to wood bats reasonably well. During his 26-game debut stint with Delmarva, the 5-foot-9, 180-pound second baseman hit .283/.413/.434 in 126 games. The following season, 2022, Norby’s production took a bit of a downturn during his 49-game cameo in High-A (.237/.311/.425) but rebounded well in Double-A (.298/.389/.571), and he spent a handful of games mashing in the International League, as well. Overall, the former Pirate put together an aggregate .279/.360/.536 production line. Norby spent the entirety of last season squaring off against the Triple-A competition, winning most of the time. He slugged .290/.359/.483 with a career best 40 doubles, three triples, 21 homeruns, and 10 stolen bases (in 14 total attempts).
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: He might be a candidate to bounce between the hot corner and left field.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 23-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): 105 to 115 wRC+, a 20.5% to 22.5% K- rate, and an 8% to 10% BB-rate. Those two bats: Tim Beckham and Connor Norby.
Another one of these hitters that (A) has exceeded expectations and (B) has a high floor / low ceiling. Norby’s a well-rounded hitter without a true standout offensive skill: average bat, power, and speed. And the Statcast data from Triple-A backs it up. Solid in-zone whiff rate (15%), average hard hit rate (35%), and solid top end exit velocity (109.9 mph). He does expand the zone a bit (33%), but it’s not overly concerning. Defensively, Norby was an absolute black hole at the keystone for his first two years as a pro, but he showed some serious progress in picking it – which is great because hit overall skillset is far better suited on the infield than in a run producing position like leftfield. He’s Brock Holt with a little bit more thump in the tank. Big league production: .280/.345/.410.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 45/50 | 50 |
Background: College bats and the Baltimore Orioles go hand-in-hand at point, almost predictably so. So it’s never shocking to see Mike Elias & Co. take a polished, four-year school hitter in the opening round. What was surprising, though, is when the organization grabbed Sam Houston State University star Colton Cowser with the fifth overall pick in the loaded 2021 draft. To the franchise’s credit, Cowser has done nothing but mash since donning an organizational uniform. The former Bearkat slugged .375/.490/.492 during his 32-game debut in the low levels. The following year, 2022, Cowser blitzed through High-A and Double-A before settling in for a month of work in the International League; he would finish the year with an aggregate .278/.406/.469 slash line. Last season, Cowser returned to Norfolk for some additional seasoning. He promptly responded with a Cowser-like .300/.417/.520 production line, belting out 18 doubles, a triple, and 17 homeruns in only 87 games. He appeared in 26 games with the O’s as well, batting a putrid .115/.286/.148 with just a pair of doubles spanning 77 trips to the plate.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The sweet-swinging former early first round selection struggled mightily with contact issues throughout the duration of 2022, posting K-rate north of 25% in each of his three stops. Compounding the questions about his hit tool are the dramatic – and concerning – platoon splits that the lefty-swinging Cowser displayed.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 23-year-old hitters posted a 130 to 140 wRC+ mark with a strikeout rate north of 25% with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): Brett Phillips and Colton Cowser.
I’ve always had concerns about Cowser’s hit tool. The rest of the package is rock solid, 15 or so homeruns, a handful of stolen bases, and plenty of patience at the plate. He’s only faking it in centerfield and should slide into a corner spot eventually. But, hey, it’s a workable collection of skills, something I call the Tyler Naquin package. Last year, Cowser seemingly figured out southpaws last season, which helps the overall value. Big league line: .265/.320/.420 with 20 doubles, 15 homeruns, and eight or so stolen bases.
Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40/45 | 50/55 | 50/40 | 50 | 45/50 | 45 |
Background: Wagner hit a couple Baltimore-centric checkboxes heading into the draft two years ago. #1: he’s a college bat; #2: he was an explosive, power-packaged college bat; #3: he was a young college bat. After mashing .370/.496/.852 with 15 doubles, one triple, and 27 homeruns with the Clemson Tigers in 2022, the Orioles snagged Wagner, just 20-years-old at the time, in the second round, 42nd overall. He looked moderately solid during his abbreviated debut that summer as well, batting .243/.353/.386 in 19 low level games. Last season, the 6-foot, 215-pound second / third baseman split time between Aberdeen and Bowie, hitting a disappointing .239/.342/.405 with 21 doubles, four triples, 13 homeruns, and 27 stolen bases (in 33 total attempts). His overall production line, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average threshold by 7%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Wagner could be a serviceable big league third baseman.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 21-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any High-A league (min. 350 PA): 107 to 117 wRC+, a 24% to 26% strikeout percentage, and a walk rate north of 12%. Those two bats: White Sox farmhand Loidel Chapelli and – of course – Max Wagner.
Wagner seemed to operate on a rollercoaster last season, struggling in April (.154/.260/.246), June (.214/.345/.357), and August (.202/.265/.351), and hitting well in May (.265/.446/.530), July (.328/.373/.475), and September (.324/.359/.514). The hit tool wasn’t nearly as solid as expected, though he had his moments. The power and added defensive versatility (he moonlighted at the keystone) help buoy his overall value. Wagner’s the type of guy that just looks like a ballplayer wearing a uniform. Plus raw power with a questionable bat. Defensively, he was a bit raw, but has typically looked solid in the past.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40/45 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Just the latest top prospect to come out of baseball super-hotbed IMG Academy. Horvath, a 6-foot-1, 200-pound part-time infielder / outfielder was ranked by Perfect Game as the 11th best shortstop in the country and almost assuredly tabbed as an early- to mid-round selection after his senior year had COVID not interrupted it. So it’s not surprising that Horvath struggled during his freshman season with the Tar Heels, considering the significant loss of development time as an 18-year-old. The Minnesota-born infielder batted a paltry .227/.311/.387 with four doubles and five homeruns. Horvath’s bat found a steady heartbeat during his summer stint in the Northwoods League in 2021 as he hit a respectably solid .287/.437/.434. He was able to add to that momentum during his sophomore season in the ACC, slugging .268/.390/.557 with 15 doubles, one triple, 18 homeruns, and – a surprising – 19 stolen bases (in only 22 attempts). The Tar Heel bopper spent that summer in the Cape Cod League, posting an OBP-deficient .250/.299/.514 with 20 punch outs in only 77 plate appearances. Last season Horvath continued to show impressive growth at the dish as he mashed .305/.418/.711 with 21 doubles, two triples, 24 homeruns, and 25 stolen bases (in 29 attempts). Baltimore drafted him in the second round, 53rd overall, and signed him to a slightly below-slot deal worth $1.4 million, saving the club roughly $180,000. He batted .321/.455/.603 with seven doubles and five homeruns in 22 games during his debut.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2011, only four ACC players batted at least .300/.400/.700 in a season (min. 250 PA): Kevin Parada, Drew Ellis, Jake Gelof, and – of course – Mac Horvath. Ellis, Gelof, and Horvath were all second round picks; Parada was nabbed with the 11th overall selection.
It’s completely unsurprising that an organization that places a strong emphasis on collegiate bats, particularly early in the draft, snagged one of college baseball’s better power hitters. Horvath breaks the typical mold of a hard-swinging, power-hitting bat in one way: he chokes up on every pitch. There’s a bit of swing-and-miss to his game – largely due to his swing getting long at times – but the thump helps compensate for a below-average hit tool. Horvath was primarily a third baseman early in his career, but his plus speed helped ease his transition to the outfield. The Dodgers have long bet on tools, guys like D.J. Peters, so it’ll be interesting to see if Baltimore can achieve where Los Angeles didn’t.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
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FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 60 | 70 | 60 | 40/45 | 55 |
Background: Under the captainship of General Manager Alex Anthopoulos, the organization has signed its young stars to long-term, team-friendly deals as well as anyone since John Hart’s Cleveland Indians of the early 1990s. Beyond that, though, Anthopoulos’ Braves have drafted and developed players as well as anyone, including: Michael Harris II, Vaughn Grissom, Spencer Strider (a.k.a. Quadzilla), and Bryce Elder. A.J. Smith-Shawver, perhaps more than anyone not named Strider or Harris, has been the club’s biggest developmental success – especially considering his draft status. Taken in the seventh round of the 2021 midsummer draft, Smith-Shawver offered up plenty of tantalizing potential during his first full minor league season two years ago, posting a 103-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 68.2 innings of work with the Augusta GreenJackets. And while the hard-throwing righty dominated some of the time, no one could have predicted his rocket to the game’s preeminent level in 2023. In short: it was a complete whirlwind for the former Bonus Baby. He made three absurdly good starts in Rome (High-A), two more dominant appearances with Mississippi (Double-A), looked solid in two Triple-A games with Gwinnett, and – BOOM – he’s up in the big leagues. And he looked great, throwing 16.2 teams with 15 Ks, six walks, and a 4.32 ERA. Smith-Shawver spent the rest of the year bouncing between Gwinnett and Atlanta. He finished his minor league season with 15 starts, 62 innings pitched, 79 whiffs, 33 walks, and an aggregate 2.76 ERA. He made another six appearances in the bigs, five of them coming via the start, throwing 25.1 innings with 20 punch outs, 11 walks, and a 4.26 ERA. Not bad work for a 20-year-old former seventh round pick who was drafted just two years earlier.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The former star quarterback owns one of the best arms in the Braves’ farm system with his fastball touching as high as 98 mph. But he commands the offering, as well as the rest of his arsenal, poorly. Smith-Shawver’s slider has the potential to be a plus weapon, but inconsistency issues have made it unreliable at this point in his career. There’s as much potential as any hurler still in Atlanta’s farm system, but it’s going to come down to developing command and a reliable third offering. His athleticism should allow his feel for the strike zone to improve in the coming years.
Scouting Report: If you were to construct the ideal pitching prospect nowadays it might look something like Smith-Shawver: oodles of athleticism, as evidenced by his work on the gridiron at Colleyville Heritage High School; a fastball that can touch the upper 90s; three – three – plus offspeed pitches. The only thing lacking – at least now – is his below-average command, which still projects as a 45-grade tool in the coming years. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander’s fastball generally sits in 93- to 95-mph range with decent life and touched a high of 97 mph during a MiLB game I scouted. His slider is a bonafide swing-and-miss offering, his curveball is just a tick below that. And his fourth offering, a rarely-thrown changeup, might actually end up being his second-best pitch (behind the FB and SL).
Ceiling: 3.5-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
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FB | SL | SF | Command | Overall |
70 | 55 | 55/60 | 40/45 | 55 |
Background: A two-sport star athlete during his prep days at Thomasville High School, Waldrep, who clearly excelled on the diamond, was also a well-regarded punter and placekicker for the football team as well. Ranked by Perfect Game as the fourteenth best righty in in the state of Georgia, Waldrep spent his freshman season working out of Southern Mississippi’s bullpen, throwing 16.1 innings with 16 punch outs and eight free passes to go along with a trio of saves. He moved into the Golden Eagles’ rotation at the start of his sophomore season. And he flourished. Making 17 starts that year, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound right-hander posted a dominant 140-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in only 90.0 innings of work, tallying a tidy 3.20 ERA while winning six games. He would make one brief start for the Team USA during the summer, throwing just 2.1 innings with four runs (three earned). Waldrep would transfer to the land of the Gators prior to his junior year. And the production – more or less – remained the same as he moved into the SEC. Across 18 starts, the hard-throwing righty averaged 14 strikeouts and a whopping 4.6 walks per nine innings to go along with a 10-3 win-loss record and a 3.99 ERA. Atlanta snagged the hard-throwing right-hander in the opening round, 24th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $3 million, saving the club a little more than a quarter-million dollars of bonus money. After joining the professional ranks, Atlanta sprinkled a little bit of their pitching magic on the Florida ace and then he proceeded to blitz through four levels. He made eight brief appearances between Augusta, Rome, Mississippi, and Gwinnett, throwing 29.1 innings, recording a 41-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go along with a sparkling 1.53 ERA.
Scouting Report: Per the usual, Waldrep’s pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only 10 SEC hurlers averaged at least 13 strikeouts per nine innings in a season (min. 75 IP): Paul Skenes, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter, Asa Lacy, Ethan Small, Zack Thompson, Will Bednar, Doug Nikhazy, and Hurston Waldrep. Only two of those pitchers posted a walk rate north of 4.0 BB/9: Lacy, the enigmatic former first rounder, and Waldrep.
Power-based, three-pitch arsenal. Waldrep attacks hitters with a plus-plus mid- to upper-90s fastball, often touching near triple digits. He’ll complement the offering with a strong above-average upper-80s slider and a borderline plus split-finger fastball. Max effort on every pitch, Hurston’s lack of command / control may eventually push him into a relief role.”
Ceiling: 3.0-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 70 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: A solid shortstop during his time at the University of Nebraska, the Cornhuskers unleashed their rocket-armed infielder against the competition as reliever during his final season. And he was dominant, saving 10 games while compiling a 34-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.2 innings of work. Combine that with his career best offensive performance (.284/.403/.459) and it’s easy to see how Schwellenbach captured the 2021 John Olerud Award, given to the top two-way player. After joining the Braves as a second round pick, the promising right-hander succumbed to Tommy John surgery and was knocked out of action until last spring. But he quickly made up for any lost developmental time. Schwellenbach made a total of 16 starts between Augusta and Rome, throwing 65.0 innings with 55 strikeouts against just 16 free passes to go along with a combined 2.49 ERA. The former Big10 star missed most of July and August but seemed fine during his three-game stint in the South Atlantic League at the end of the year.
Scouting Report: Now entering his age-24 season with just 13.2 innings above Low-A, Schwellenbach’s a bit behind the norm thanks to his early career Tommy John surgery. But there’s a lot of developmental meat left on the bone due to his lack of pitching experience. Above-average 93- to 94-mph fastball that he commands fairly well and loves to move it around, especially above the belt. Like a lot of the club’s top pitching prospects, Schwellenbach hurls an unfairly good slider, earning a plus-plus grade. He’ll also mix in an average changeup. The Braves are likely to continue stretching Schwellenbach out as a starter, but there’s reliever risk. The ceiling of a #4 with a dominant setup arm as a floor. Barring any injury issues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office push him through several levels in 2024, and a quick stop with the big league club certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility either.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2024
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FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
50 | 60 | 55 | 55 | 50 |
Background: Atlanta opened the 2023 season with one of the weaker – if not the weakest – farm systems in baseball. Years of aggressive promotions combined with deals to bring in established stars left Old Mother Hubbard’s Cupboard pretty bare. But the 2023 season saw several of the club’s more notable youngsters take important developmental leaps forward. Guys like AJ Smith-Shawver, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Ignacio Alvarez established themselves as potential legitimate big league players. But one of the few guys to take a noticeable step backward – albeit due to injury – was former supplemental first rounder JR Ritchie. Taken with the 35th overall pick two years ago, the Bainbridge High School product got off to an impressive start: he owned a 25-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 13.1 innings, though he coughed up eight earned runs. But his elbow started barking and eventually underwent the knife for Tommy John surgery after his May 6th start against the Cannon Ballers of Kannapolis.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: There’s some #3-type upside here. Very, very savvy pick by the Braves.
Scouting Report: I caught Ritchie’s final contest last spring, and I’m assuming it was an elbow issue but he was throwing his slider as his only offspeed offering at that point. Above-average command. Assuming (A) he comes back to full health, (B) he regains his velocity, and (C) still has the feel for his above-average changeup; Ritchie should slide nicely into the back of the Braves’ rotation in a couple years.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2025 / 2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 55 | 45 |
Background: The front office has proven time and again the ability to find talent beyond the opening round of the draft. And Alvarez, a fifth round pick out of JuCo Riverside City College in 2022, is just another example. The 155th player taken that year, the 5-foot-11, 190-pound shortstop handled an aggressive promotion up to High-A with aplomb last season. Appearing in 116 games with the Rome Braves, Alvarez batted a solid .284/.395/.391 with 24 doubles, seven homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 21 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production surpassed the league average mark by a surprising 23%.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any High-A season (min. 350 PA): 118 to 128 wRC+, a double-digit walk rate, and a strikeout rate between 15% to 19%. Those three hitters: Rio Ruiz, Miguel Amaya, and – of course – Ignacio Alvarez. It should be noted that the former two accrued big league time during their respective professional careers.
An absolute wizard at shortstop, Alvarez is among the better infield gloves in all of the minor leagues, owning the potential to at least be among those listed as potential Gold Glovers. The leatherwork itself is good enough to guarantee at least some time in the Bigs. Ignacio offers up a contact-oriented approach at the plate, showing doubles power, a patient approach, and a bit of speed. There’s starting caliber potential here, largely based on his glove, but there could be some if he adds strength.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
30/40 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 55 | 50 |
Background: The Braves quietly pushed their chips to the center of the table last offseason when they became infatuated with Venezuelan centerfielder Luis Guanipa, handing the then 17-year-old a massive $2.5 million bonus. They used roughly 47% of their total bonus pool on the toolsy teenager. A few months after joining the organization, Guanipa debuted with the club’s Dominican Summer League affiliate, though the results didn’t match the hype. Appearing in 46 games in the extremely hitter-friendly league, the 5-foot-11, 188-pounder batted .238/.361/.384 with 11 doubles, one triple, four homeruns, and 20 stolen bases (in 26 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by 4%.
Scouting Report: Guanipa actually got off to a scorching start to his professional career last summer as he mashed .328/.408/.552 with six doubles and three homeruns throughout his first 16 games. But something happened during his June 30th games that knocked him out of the lineup after just two plate appearances. When he returned to action he was hardly the same player, hitting .181/.328/.276 over his final 30 games. Nothing was reported – and he was hit by a pitch – but something seemed to have happened. He has a shot to be plus-power / plus-speed type of player. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in Low-A at some point in 2024. A lot of Boom / Bust potential here.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Extreme
MLB ETA: 2026 / 2027
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
45 | 50 | 30 | 55 | 55 | 45 |
Background: The first bat the organization took during the 2022 draft. Everything came together for the lefty-swinging backstop that season as he mashed .341/.448/.647 with career bests in doubles (14) and homers (19). But his stick cooled considerably during his debut with Augusta as he batted a disappointing .247/.396/.284 in 21 games in Low-A. Undeterred by his early struggles, the front office immediately shoved him up to High-A at the start of 2023. And he more than held his own. Baldwin slugged .260/.385/.466 with 25 doubles, one triple, and 14 homeruns. Atlanta bumped him up to Mississippi in September, but that stay lasted less than three weeks before he finished out the season in Triple-A. Altogether, the former Missouri State Bear hit .270/.385/.460 with 26 doubles, one triple, and 16 homeruns. Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production topped the league average mark by a whopping 32%. Not too shabby.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: The swing is a bit long. He finally developed above-average power during his final season at Missouri State University. Baldwin’s strong and can take outside pitches the opposite way for homeruns. Solid eye at the plate with a track record of consistent contact rates. Baldwin could grow into a bat-first backup option.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only four 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in a High-A season (min. 350 PA): 130 to 140 wRC+, a walk rate north of 12%, and a strikeout rate between 18% to 22%. Those four hitters: Nolan Reimold, Abel Nieves, Nathan Martorella, and Drake Baldwin.
Almost universally pegged as a bat-first backstop, Baldwin’s defensive game took positive strides forward last season to the point where he projects as an above-average glove at the game’s most demanding position. Baldwin continued to show an advanced, patient approach at the plate as he walked in more than 14% of his appearances last season. Average power. Solid contact rates. The ability to handle lefties and righties well. He’s tracking like a low end starter. A tremendous job by the front office for unearthing him in the third round a couple years ago.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
50 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Atlanta opened up their 2022 draft class by taking pitchers with their first four picks, including nabbing three straight high schoolers. Snagged with their opening pick two years ago, 20th overall, Murphy made 18 starts with Augusta before wrapping up the year with a trio of appearances with Rome. Overall, the Riverside-Brookfield High School product finished the year with 21 starts, throwing 89.2 innings of work, recording a 113-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He compiled an aggregate 4.72 ERA and a significantly better 3.66 FIP. For his young career he’s averaging 11.5 punch outs and 3.4 walks per nine innings.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Murphy looks like a #3/#4-type arm. Prior to the draft I had a second round grade on him.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 19-year-old hurlers met the following criteria with one club in a season (min. 60 IP): a strikeout percentage north of 30% with a walk percentage between 8% and 10%. Those three hurlers: Grayson Rodriguez, Drew Rom, and – of course – Owen Murphy.
Unfortunately for Atlanta and their fans, Murphy is more Drew Rom than Grayson Rodriguez. And, to be frank, I was disappointed when I watched Murphy last season – mainly with his fastball. His heater was only sitting in the 90 range, below-average in today’s high octane world, but his overall command allows it to play up into average territory. He complements – or supports – it with a big bending 75 mph above-average curveball and an average slider. Reports indicate an average changeup, though I didn’t see one. Murphy’s just two years into his professional career, but he’s riding the line between a potential starter / bullpen arm already – unless he finds some of that once-project velocity.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
Background: Campbell University has turned into to a little baseball hotbed in the past couple years. The Fighting Camels have had three first round picks since 2019: Seth Johnson (Tampa Bay Rays, 40th overall, 2019), Tom Harrington (Pittsburgh Pirates, 36th overall, 2022), and Zach Neto (Los Angeles Angels, 13th overall, 2022). And that doesn’t include Cedric Mullins, a 13th round pick in 2015. Cade Kuehler, a hefty right-hander from Cuthbertson High School, is the next notable Camel. A three-year member of the school’s starting rotation, Kuehler was able to parlay his sophomore success – he averaged nearly 12 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 – into a couple brief stints in the Cape Cod League and with Team USA. Last season, the 6-foot, 215-pound righty was even better. Making 13 starts for the Big South Conference squad, he whiffed 91 and walked just 26 to go along with an 8-1 win-loss record and a 2.71 ERA. Atlanta selected him in the second round, 70th overall, signing him to a deal worth a smidgeon over $1 million.
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, there are six instances in which a Big South hurler averaged at least 11 strikeouts every nine innings in a season (min. 70 IP): Mason Miller, Matt Fraudin, Mike Morrison, Andre Scrubb, and Cade Kuehler, who accomplished it twice.
Thick bodied right-hander who hides the ball incredibly well before attacking hitters from a high arm slot. While the arsenal is solid – low- to mid-90s fastball, above-average slider, and an average curveball and changeup – Kuehler has reliever vibes. The command isn’t great. He lacks a true wipeout pitch. Dan Straily vibes if he lands with the right organization.”
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
_______________________________________________________________________________________
FB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
55 | 55 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: Miller School of Albemarle may not be a traditional baseball hotbed, per se, but the school does boast (A) an extensive history on the diamond and (B) should-be Hall of Fame big leaguer. The Charlottesville, Virginia-based college preparatory played their first baseball game all the way back in 1882, winning 55-0 against the Fishbourne Military School. And the school’s current baseball head coach is none other than fireballing lefty closer Billy Wagner, owner of 422 saves. Hackenberg, who spent his final two seasons at Miller under the tutelage of Wagner, comes from an entire family of athletes: his older brother, Christian, was drafted in the second round by the New York Jets in 2016; his other brother, Brandon, was a first round pick by Orlando City SC in the 2021 MLS draft, and his other brother, Adam, was an 18th round pick by the White Sox three years ago. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound right-hander spent the last two seasons in the Hokies’ rotation. He opened up his first collegiate season by throwing 92.2 innings of work, averaging 8.4 strikeouts and just 1.8 walks per nine innings while posting a 10-2 win-loss record. Last season, Hackenberg made 15 starts for Virginia Tech, tallying an impressive 99-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio but – somehow – he finished the year with an unsightly 5.80 ERA. Atlanta grabbed the Virginia Tech ace in the second round, 59th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1,997,500.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2011, only four ACC hurlers averaged between 10 and 11 K/9 with a walk rate between 2.5 BB/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in a season (min. 75 IP): Carlos Rodon, Bryan Radziewski, Cole Sands, and – of course – Drue Hackenberg.
A bit of surprising pick in the second round. Hackenberg sports a three pitch-mix: a 93- to 95-mph, above-average fastball, a high spinning, low- to mid-80s slider, and a power changeup that lacks a lot of velocity separation. Hackenberg’s fastball spins at an above-average rate, as well as shows some solid arm-side run, but it looked far too hittable during his final season. Like his fastball, the right-hander’s slider spins above-average (2700- to 2900-RPMs) and will miss a handful of bats. Average changeup. He’s a strike-throwing machine, but lacks above-average command. Hackenberg has a similar ceiling as former Braves farmhand Aaron Blair. The Braves are going to push him through quickly.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 50/55 | 60 | 55 | 50 | 60 |
Background: Arizona got hot at the right time and rode that wave straight to a World Series appearance, their first in more than 20 years. But what makes that all the more impressive is the sheer amount of talent on the roster that’s been homegrown or – at the bare minimum – spent time within their system. Guys like: Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Kevin Ginkel, Merrill Kelly (that’s more of a technicality, I suppose, since they signed him out of the KBO), Geraldo Perdomo, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Pavin Smith, Ryne Nelson, and Tommy Henry. That’s a lot of talent the farm system’s burped up that past couple of years. Despite the big exodus from the minor league affiliates, Arizona’s farm system still has a handful of young, intriguing prospects, headlined by a pair of high-ceiling former high school draft picks. Taken with the sixth overall pick in a loaded frontend the 2021 draft class, Jordan Lawlar was one of eleven shortstops to hear their names called in the opening round that summer. Lawlar, by the way, was the second one to go off the board. The Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas product (that’s quite a mouthful) turned in an awesome first full season in the minor leagues two years ago as he slugged .303/.401/.509 while making four stops. And that doesn’t include his brief, albeit nonetheless impressive, stint in the Arizona Fall League either (.278/.469/.528). The 6-foot-1, 190-pound shortstop spent the majority of last season battling – and passing – the Double-A test, hitting .263/.366/.474 with 41 extra-base hits in only 89 games with Amarillo. Lawlar spent another (successful) couple of weeks in the PCL before the front office called him up in early September. His bat – finally – cooled at that point (.129/.206/.129).
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: As expected, Lawlar’s defense is fringy average, but it’s decent enough to keep him at the most important position on the infield dirt. But when it comes to Lawlar it’s not really about the leather, is it? He has a significant chance of claiming the big league club’s shortstop gig some point late in 2023.
Scouting Report: With respect to his work in Double-A, his longest stint last season, consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 20-year-old bats met the following criteria with one club in any Double-A league (min. 350 PA): 117 to 127 wRC+ and a 20.5% to 22.5% strikeout rate. Those two hitters: Anthony Rizzo and Jordan Lawlar.
Just for fun:
Name | Season | Team | Level | Age | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BB% | K% |
Anthony Rizzo | 2010 | BOS | AA | 20 | 467 | 0.263 | 0.334 | 0.481 | 0.815 | 0.217 | 9.64% | 21.41% |
Jordan Lawlar | 2023 | ARI | AA | 20 | 410 | 0.263 | 0.366 | 0.474 | 0.840 | 0.211 | 11.46% | 21.71% |
The question I had coming into the year, as noted in last year’s Handbook, was how well the hit tool was going to play out. The former early first rounder dealt with some questionable swing-and-miss issues during his 2022 campaign, but he seemed to calm his approach last season. He whiffed in just 20.6% of his minor league plate appearances in 2023. And even in a small sample size in Triple-A – just 16 games – Lawlar’s metrics didn’t raise any major red flags. He had a Chase Rate of just 21% and an In Zone Whiff Rate of just 15% during his time with Reno. While scouting him during his PCL stint, Lawlar showed a solid knack for connecting on low-and-away breaking balls, which was another previously expressed concern. The hit tool may never ascend to an above-average skill, but it’s going to be rock solid. Throw in above-average power and plus speed and Lawlar has the makings of a perennial All-Star. His defense won’t win him any awards, but it’s enough leather to keep him at the position. In terms of big league production, think: .275/.340/.460.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2023/2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
30/40 | 30/60 | 70 | 50 | 70 | 60 |
Background: Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday. Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones. Back-and-forth heading into the 2022 draft. Baltimore at #1, Arizona #2. There was a time that Jones looked like a surefire bet to go with the top overall pick. But the Orioles pulled a fast one and went with Matt’s kid instead of Andruw’s. And that’s the start of the two young top prospects diverging paths. Holliday’s rocketed up the prospect charts, going all the way up to the best in baseball. Jones, on the other hand, had his debut curtailed due to a left shoulder issue that popped up during BP, which placed a pause on his highly anticipated professional debut. Then the former #2 overall pick missed several months due to some nagging lower body injuries last season, according to MLB.com. The front office brass originally sent Jones up to Low-A to begin the year, but after missing half of April, all of May, and a few weeks in June, he was sent to the Complex League for a brief rehab assignment. The 6-foot-4, 180-pound centerfielder appeared in 29 games with the Visalia Rawhide, batting .252/.366/.351 with three doubles, one triple, a pair of long balls, and half-a-dozen stolen bases.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jones will forever be compared to his father. The young center fielder doesn’t possess the sheer power of his old man, but he’s more fleet of foot.
Scouting Report: Basically a year-and-a-half into his professional career, we still don’t have a solid idea on what type of hitter Jones is, or likely will be. The power hasn’t really shown up in games and he’s swinging and missing more than you’d like. But, again, he’s coming back from a shoulder issue and missed a lot of time. Then he gets hampered by the leg / lower body issues. Watching tape, it is clear Jones didn’t feel – or look – comfortable in the box at all. This could be completely out-of-left-field, but I really think he’s going to have issues with quality breaking balls, like career damning issues. It’s like he’s taking defensive swings and not attacking the baseball. Hopefully, I’m wrong. The defense played out as expected, plus to plus-plus. But, again, the bat. Jones absolutely needs to answer the call with the hit tool in 2024. I have to be honest: I feel like I’m crazy writing this, but I think I’m off the Druw Jones bandwagon.
Ceiling: 4.5-win player
Risk: Extreme
MLB ETA: 2027
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FB | CB | CU | SF | Command | Overall |
50 | 55 | 55 | 65 | 50/55 | 55 |
Background: The articles declaring Lin’s professional contract with Arizona all note his impressive run with Chinese Taipei in the World Baseball Cup U23, specially his pair of games vs. Cuba and Venezuela. The slight-framed lefty twirled 8 and two-thirds innings against the powerhouse countries, fanning 14 for his eventual sixth place finishing ball club. Arizona swooped in two years ago, signing Lin to a deal with a half-million-dollar bonus. The 5-foot-11, 160-pound left-hander would make his stateside debut a few months later, throwing 56.1 innings with 91 strikeouts and just 22 free passes to go along with a tidy 2.72 ERA. Last season, Lin made stops at two different levels again, this time High-A for 13 starts and another 11 games with the Amarillo Sod Poodles in Double-A. He would toss 121.1 innings, averaging 10.4 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings with a 3.86 ERA and a 3.92 FIP.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: Scouting Report: A crafty southpaw that pitches like a 10-year vet. If the scouting reports are correct, Lin possesses as deep of an arsenal as there is in minor league baseball. Lin’s more of strike-thrower than quality strike-thrower at this point, but that’s likely to improve in the coming years. It wouldn’t be shocking to him reach Double-A late in 2023.
Scouting Report: One of the more intriguing windups in baseball. And that’s saying something. Without any runners on base, the crafty lefty starts on the mound, facing home plate. After getting the sign he’ll begin his motion by turning towards first base, taking a step forward towards the bag, lift his right leg and proceed home. Beyond that, Lin’s one of my favorite pitchers to watch. He’s incredibly crafty, throwing as many five, six, maybe even seven different pitches. Really, only he knows. And he commands them all well. Average, low-90s fastball that he moves around as well as any young pitcher. His best overall offering is fantastically diabolical changeup (that may actual be a splitter). It’s a bonafide swing-and-miss offering that generates a lot of weak contact when hitters can touch it. He also mixes in an above-average curveball and a matching cut fastball. There may be a slider mixed in as well. Given his age, he was only 19-years-old and spent a good portion of the year in Double-A, Lin is pitching-wise well beyond his years. As long as he’s not struck by the injury bug, he’s a very safe bet to reach league average production in the next two years. I really like him – a lot.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 45/50 | 40 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Background: The most successful ballplayer to come out of Los Gatos High School is none than Hal Chase. A suspected (notorious) gambler who may have been “on the take”, Chase finished his 15-year career as a .291/.319/.391 hitter, earning more than 20 wins above replacement (both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs). Since Chase, the California-based school has churned out a total of two big league hitters: Mike Couchee, owner of two plate appearances at the game’s pinnacle level, and Logan Schafer, a five-year veteran with 318 games on his resume. Tommy Troy, a sweet swinging shortstop from Stanford, hopes to add his name to the list. The 5-foot-10, 197-pound middle infielder turned in a solid, sometimes great debut showing for The Cardinal in 2021 as a true freshman, flashing impressive power (six doubles and 10 homeruns) while battling some swing-and-miss issues (25.8% K-rate). Troy’s production improved during his first foray in the vaunted Cape Cod League that summer as he batted .299/.364/.479 with 10 extra-base knocks and only 25 punch outs in 133 plate appearances. He continued to swing a hot stick during his sophomore season with Stanford as well, slugging .339/.371/.568 with 15 doubles, three triples, seven homeruns, and five stolen bases (though he was somehow thrown out eight times). And, once again, he spent the summer back in The Cape: .310/.386/.531. Last season Troy raised his offensive prowess to a whole other stratosphere as he mashed .394/.478/.699 with career bests in doubles (17), triples (four), homeruns (17), stolen bases (17), and strikeout-to-walk ratio (41-to-34). Arizona drafted Troy in the opening round, 12th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $4.4 million. The young shortstop batted .271/.374/.469 with 10 extra-base hits between the Complex League (four games) and High-A (23 games).
Scouting Report: Pre-draft write-up:
“Consider the following:
Since 2011, only three Pac-12 hitters slugged at least .390/.470/.700 in a season (min. 250 PA): Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, and – of course – Tommy Troy. For those counting at home, that’s the first and third overall picks in the 2019 MLB Draft. But here’s a question: Since 2010, who’s the best professional hitter Stanford has developed? To be fair, there’s a group of similarly performing sticks: Nico Hoerner, Tommy Edman, and Stephen Piscotty.
Troy possesses quick hands and twitchy movements on defense, but the actual [realized] value is average at best. At the plate, the infield vagabond takes a two-strike approach for each pitch: slightly choked up, very short, quick swing. His approach is more geared towards line drives and it’s doubtful he hits for as much power in the professional ranks as he did during his collegiate career. The hit tool is going to have to carry him far.
Ceiling: 2.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40/45 | 45/55 | 55 | 45 | 50 | 50 |
Background: Signed off the international scene mid-January two years ago, Luis was one of the best bats on the club’s foreign rookie league affiliate that summer. Splitting time between their Red and Black squads, the switch-hitting middle infielder mashed .345/.399/.414 with seven doubles, one triple, one homerun, and nine stolen bases. Last season, Luis once again spent time on their Red and Black teams, though this time he moved stateside to the Arizona Complex League. He would bat an aggregate .287/.370/.479. He also spent 36 games in the California League too, batting .257/.310/.471 with five doubles, three triples, and four homeruns.
Scouting Report: Luis owns such a loose, easy swing with impressive bat speed, particularly for a teenager. But the switch-hitting middle infielder also takes an aggressive approach at the plate, often times swinging early and often. The 6-foot, 170-pound Dominican prospect is just beginning to tap into his power, which may creep into above-average territory in the coming years. Defensively, the twitchy infielder looked solid on both sides of the keystone, but has the potential to be a solid shortstop as well. There are some exciting (future) tools here.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: Moderate to High
MLB ETA: 2027
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
50 | 40 | 60 | 50 | 70 | 45 |
Background: Barrosa must be aging a lot quicker than the normal kid in his early 20s. At least, that’s if you believe his online biographies from reliable sites. Why? Because he’s shrinking. The pint-sized centerfielder lost four inches over the past year. Barrosa’s reported height was 5-foot-9 heading into the year. Now, though, he’s checking in at 5-foot-5. Either way, though, he continues to be a dynamic offensive and defensive player in the Diamondbacks’ system. And last year he turned in another strong showing as he spent the season squaring off against the Pacific Coast League competition – often coming out victorious. Appearing in 120 contests with the Reno Aces, the now (correctly?) listed 5-foot-5, 165-pound outfielder slugged .274/.394/.456 with 20 doubles, eight triples, 13 homeruns, and 15 stolen bases. His overall production, per Weighted Runs Created Plus, topped the league average mark by a rock solid 10%.
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of the best defensive players at any position in the minor leagues, Barrosa’s glove work and speed guarantees him at least a bench option at the big league level.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only two 22-year-old hitters met the following criteria with one club in any Triple-A league (min. 350 PA): 105 to 115 wRC+, a 15.5% to 17.5% strikeout rate, and a walk rate north of 14%. Those two hitters: J.P. Crawford and Jorge Barrosa.
The conversation is – and will always – begin with Barrosa’s defense. It’s spectacular. It’s elite. It’s enough to keep him in the big leagues as a starting option. So let’s talk about the offense: It’s a good hit tool, not great, not bad, just good. Barrosa chases a bit, 27% last season, but not a lot. He swings-and-misses a bit, 21% in 2023, but not a lot. His hard hit rate in Triple-A, 34%, is about the big league average, so he packs a bit of a punch but not too much. There’s certainly enough of a foundation in place to a very solid, sometimes very good, big league player. In terms of production, think: .260/.320/.390 with Gold Glove defense.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Low to Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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FB | CB | SL | CH | Command | Overall |
50 | 60 | 50/55 | N/A | 45/50 | 45 |
Background: Continuingwith the organizational theme of under-the-radar prospects, Cristian Mena slinkedhis way into Triple-A last season, joining Braves top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver as the only hurlers under the age of 21 to throw at least 10 innings at the level. Another one of the club’s high profile international free agents, Mena – of course – was placed on the Rapid Developmental Program that club’s always favored. He reached Double-A, the minors’ meat grinder, in 2022 at (A) just 19-years-old and (B) in just his second professional season. Last season, to no one’s surprise, Mena wrapped up the final weeks of the season in Triple-A. He would make 27 starts between Birmingham and Charlotte, throwing 133.2 innings with an impressive 156-to-64 strikeout-to-walk ratio (10.5 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9). He compiled a 4.85 ERA. (Post-production note: Arizona acquired Mena in a one-for-one trade that sent outfielder Dominic Fletcher to the White Sox.)
Snippet from The 2023 Prospect Digest Handbook: One of the most unheralded pitching prospects in the game – at least temporarily. Mena has everything you look for in a young arm: size (6-foot-2 and 200 pounds), athleticism, reasonable feel for the strike zone, at least one quality offspeed pitch (and in this instance two potentially plus breaking balls), and production against older competition.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2006, only three 20-year-old hurlers posted a strikeout percentage north of 26% with one club in Double-A (min. 100 IP): Phil Hughes, Chris Tillman, and – of course – Cristian Mena.
Very solid repertoire for a young hurler: 92- to 94-mph fastball that’s on the high end of average; an above-average low-80s curveball that’s a bit inconsistent; a plus power mid-80s slider; and a decent little upper-80s changeup. The latter is intriguing because it lacks a lot of velocity separation, but it’s heavy with sink. The command hasn’t quite caught up – it’s still in the 40-ish range – but there’s a chance that it creeps into average territory as he matures. He’s a high floor, low ceiling hurler.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2024
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 45 | 30 | 50 | 50 | 45 |
Background: A product of The Walker School, home to former big league hurler David Hale, Groover got off to a tremendous start to his collegiate career with UNC Charlotte in 2021 as he mashed .351/.381/.489 with 14 doubles and four homeruns in 54 contests. But the Georgia-born infielder’s production cratered in the Northwoods League that summer. Appearing in 29 games with the Wisconsin Woodchucks, Groover hit a mediocre .265/.379/.316 with just five doubles. Prior to the star of his sophomore season, the 6-foot-2, 212-pound defensive vagabond transferred from Conference USA and into the ACC, joining the Wolfpack of N.C. State. And he shined. Brightly. In 57 games with his new school, Groover slugged .364/.440/.568 while leading the team in doubles (16) to go along with a triple, 10 homeruns, and a quartet of stolen bases. He was named Second Team All-ACC for his performance. He also made a (very) brief jaunt through the vaunted Cape Cod League that summer as well, hitting .222/.300/.222 in just eight games with the Harwich Mariners. He also spent some time with the National Team as well. Last season, Groover remained eerily consistent at the plate at he batted .332/.430/.546 with eight doubles, one triple, a career best 13 homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases. The Arizona Diamondbacks drafted him in the second round, 48th overall, and signed him to a deal worth $1.78 million. He hit .283/.348/.394 during his abbreviated debut.
Scouting Report: Consider the following:
Since 2011, there have been 25 instances in which an ACC player batted at least .320/.420/.520 with more walks than strikeouts in a season (min. 250 PA). And the list includes a lot of notable early round and / or big leaguers including: Colin Moran, Seth Beer, Zack Collins, Pavin Smith, Cal Raleigh, Adam Haseley, Matt Thaiss, Trea Turn, James Ramsey, Mark Zagunis, and Josh Stowers.
Groover looks – at least, physically – like he should possess above-average power. He’s well-built and athletic, but he still hasn’t quite tapped into a consistent, above-average power surge that’s brewing within. He has no trouble turning on inside pitches. Above-average hit tool, 45-grade current power. Groover’s bounced around the diamond quite a bit, seeing time at both corners in the infield and outfield, as well as at the keystone. He’s slow-footed, but surprisingly agile in the field. High baseball IQ.
Ceiling: 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
MLB ETA: 2025/2026
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
55 | 30/40 | 50 | 55 | 50 | 45 |
Background: A native of Acarigua, Venezuela, the front office brass signed the 5-foot-10, 155-pound middle infielder to a deal worth $240,000 in late January two years ago. A few months later, the organization sent Torin to the Dominican Summer League to begin his professional career. And it looks like it’s going to be a very solid career, at least on the onset. Appearing in 50 DSL games, the teenage infielder batted .333/.465/.434 with 12 doubles, two triples, and 21 stolen bases (in 27 attempts). Torin opened up last in the stateside rookie league, but after slugging .320/.437/.427 with three doubles, one triple, a pair of homeruns, and 15 stolen bases in 26 games. The player development shot callers pushed the then-18-year-old up to Visalia in mid-July for the remainder of the year. He put together a disappointing .236/.314/.300 slash line in 39 games with the Rawhide. Overall, Torin finished his second professional season with an aggregate .272/.369/.354 line with four doubles, two triples, four homeruns, and 21 stolen bases (in 25 total attempts). Per Weighted Runs Created Plus, his overall production was 3% below the league average threshold.
Scouting Report: Physically mature for a teenage infielder, Torin doesn’t project to add much in the coming years. The Venezuelan youngster shows an advanced feel at the plate and a strong aptitude for the borders of the strike zone. Torin doesn’t figure to develop anything more than below-average power, but he’s going to rely heavily on his bat-to-ball skills and will likely prove to be very difficult to strikeout as he moves up the minor league ladder. He continues to show a knack for fighting off quality pitches. Defensively, the early metrics are strong on Torin’s performance on either side of second base. The development of power will ultimately prove to be the separating factor between a utility role and starter. For now, I’m inclined to project him as a solid backup infielder, but there’s enough to point that this is an overly conservative assessment.
Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player
Risk: Moderate
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Hit | Power | SB | Patience | Glove | Overall |
40 | 55/60 | 60 | 50 | 50/55 | 50 |
Background: Once upon a time, in the not-so-distant past, Kristian Robinson was viewed as a top prospect in baseball. Nearly every major publication ranked the Bahamian outfielder as a consensus Top 100 prospect with at least one outlet ranking him among the Top 20 minor leaguers heading into the 2021 season. And then, well, things happened. As documented on MLB.com, Robinson dealt with mental health issues and, unfortunately, assaulted a police officer in 2020. Then legal and visa issues kept him out of action until last season. But the former bonus baby, who joined the organization during the summer of 2017, picked up right where he left off on the diamond. The front office brass sent Robinson back to Low-A, a level he spent part of his age-18 season in, to restart his career once he overcame a hamstring injury. He responded with a .276/.397/.440 slash line 32 games. Robinson moved up to High-A in mid-July, but after slugging .265/.359/.441 over his first 10 games, he would miss a few weeks before popping back up in the Complex League for a quick detour. He would take another quick jaunt through Low-A before finishing up in Double-A.
Scouting Report: Robinson always displayed an incredible balance of tools, production, and potential during his brief start to his professional career. But there were some questions on how well the hit tool was going to develop. Four years later much the same can be said: despite the extended layoff, Robinson flashed above-average power, speed, and solid defense, but the hit tool raised some red flags. He whiffed 86 times in 272 plate appearances (31.6% of the time). Sure, some of this can be attributed to the years-long gap in games, but not all of it. I was a big believer in Robinson years ago, and there’s still the ability to be an impact player at the big league level. In terms of production, think something along the lines of .240/.310/.440. It’s not necessarily All-Star production, but it’s definitely going to be useful to an organization.
Ceiling: 2.0-win player
Risk: High to Very High
MLB ETA: 2024/2025
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All statistics were provided via the following website: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, TheBaseballCube, BaseballProspectus, ClayDavenport.com, Baseball America, and X-user @mk237700 (for compiling Statcast Data)
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