The 2016 Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects

Announcement: After peaking as the #3 book among all baseball books on Amazon last year, my new book, The 2016 Prospect Digest Handbook, is on sale! Check it out here!

And for those wondering what CALs are, here’s an article on the Comparison And Likeness program I designed.

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1. A.J. Reed, 1B

Born: 05/10/93

Age: 23

Bats: L

Top CALs: Jerry Sands, Ji-Man Choi,

Rhys Hoskins, Nick Evans, Kala Ka’Aihue

Height: 6-4

Weight: 240

Throws: L

Season

Age

LVL

PA

2B

3B

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BB%

K%

wRC+

2014

21

A-

150

11

0

5

0.306

0.420

0.516

0.210

14.7%

14.7%

174

2014

21

A

135

9

1

7

0.272

0.326

0.528

0.256

5.9%

23.7%

141

2015

22

A+

385

16

4

23

0.346

0.449

0.638

0.292

15.3%

19.0%

190

2015

22

AA

237

14

1

11

0.332

0.405

0.571

0.239

11.4%

20.7%

168

Background: Arguably the top offensive performer in the minor leagues – and the likely winner of said argument – Reed’s breakout 2015 has to be leaving a lot of front office personnel shaking their heads, wondering how the hell the hulking first baseman lasted until the 42nd pick in the draft two years ago. A two-way player at the University of Kentucky, Reed capped off his three-year collegiate career on a high note: as a southpaw toeing the rubber he posted a career best 2.09 ERA in 112 innings, striking out 71 and walking 29, and as the team’s top bat he slugged .336/.476/.735 with an NCAA leading 23 dingers. Fearing that Reed would be a one dimensional slugger, he dropped completely out of the first round and squarely into the waiting lap of the Astros.

Reed had a dominant professional debut – easing a lot of fears about his hit tool – by slugging a combined .289/.375/.522 with 33 extra-base hits in just 68 games between Tri-City and Quad Cities. But nobody could have expected him to string together a season like he did last year, making quick work of the California League and later torching Class AA pitching. In total, he mashed to the tune of .340/.432/.612 with 30 doubles, five triples, and a MiLB-leading 34 bombs. His 177 wRC+ total also ranked first among all prospect to not appear in rookie ball.

Projection: Just for comparison’s sake let’s take a quick look at two of the top bats from some recent drafts:

Player

Age

Levels

AVG

OBP

SLG

HR

BB%

K%

A.J. Reed

22

A+/AA

0.340

0.432

0.612

34

13.83%

19.61%

Kris Bryant

22

AA/AAA

0.325

0.438

0.661

43

14.48%

27.27%

Obviously, there are couple factors in play here: (1.) Bryant split his age-22 season between AA/AAA and Reed split his season between A+/AA and (2.) Lancaster’s home field is an absolute bandbox. But it’s still an interesting comparison nonetheless.

Prior to the draft I wrote:

“As a pitcher, Reed’s game is based purely on [pitchability].And while his control/command is a tangible skill his complete lack of strikeouts would almost assuredly push him into an eventual bullpen [role] in the minor leagues where he would – at best – be a middle reliever.

His bat, however, could be something special, potential pushing him up towards the latter half of the first round.

Reed’s plate discipline has been trending in the right direction and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him post walk rates hovering near 9.5% to 10.0% in the minor leagues. Obviously, the power is an above-average to potentially plus skill. He’s a nice…#5/#6 hitter. He’ll probably never hit for average.”

While he did hit for a (very) high average last season, I’d like to point out that his walk rate was 13.8% – so the trend definitely continued. CAL’s a big fan, linking him to Brandon Belt and Ike Davis (and let’s not forget Davis had some pretty solid seasons). I’m still not convinced he’s going to be a perennial .280-hitter, but the power/patience combo is #4-hitter worthy. One more thing: he hit .271/.362/.512 against southpaws – very, very good news.

Ceiling: 3.5- to 4.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2016

2. Francis Martes, RHP

Born: 11/24/95

Age: 20

Bats: R

Top CALs: Drew Hutchison, David Holmberg ,

Francellis Montas, Julio Teheran, Ian Mckinney

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Throws: R

YEAR

Age

Level

IP

W

L

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

LOB%

2013

17

R

50.3

3

3

3.04

3.23

5.90

2.50

15.2%

6.5%

0.18

71.8%

2014

18

R

44.0

3

3

4.09

3.17

9.20

4.70

23.7%

12.1%

0.00

59.3%

2015

19

A

52.0

3

2

1.04

2.78

7.79

2.25

22.4%

6.5%

0.17

79.4%

2015

19

A+

35.0

4

1

2.31

2.81

9.51

2.06

25.7%

5.6%

0.26

77.7%

2015

19

AA

14.7

1

0

4.91

4.32

9.82

4.30

23.2%

10.1%

1.23

77.6%

Background: Martes, who was originally recognized as a throw-in type of prospect as part the mega-deal involving Jared Cosart, Jake Marisnick, and Colin Moran with Miami at the deadline two years ago, took a huge developmental step forward in 2015 as he spent the year breezing through three levels of minors’. As a 19-year-old. The sturdy, well-built right-hander began the year on a ridiculous note in the Midwest League: he made 10 appearances with Quad Cities, throwing 52 innings with a 1.04 ERA while averaging 7.8 punch outs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. Martes would make another six impressive appearances in Lancaster, where he didn’t succumb to pressure of the bandbox, by averaging 9.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. The club would bump him up again to Class AA for his final three starts. Overall, he finished the year with 90 strikeouts, 28 walks, and a 2.04 ERA in 101.2 innings of work.

Projection: Without a doubt the single biggest riser in Houston’s system and in the conversation for all of the minor leagues, Martes went from relative obscurity to becoming one of the best teenage arms around. Big, BIG time arm with the uncanny ability to find the strike zone on more than a consistent basis, you’ll be hard pressed to find a more talented teenage arm outside of the Dodgers’ Julio Urias or Boston’s Anderson Espinoza.. Simply put, the 6-foot-1, 235-pound Martes is the best prospect you’ve likely never heard of. Yet. Legit front-of-the-rotation caliber upside as long as he can avoid the injury nexus. Given his relative youth he’s likely headed for an innings limit around130.0 next season.

Ceiling: 4.0- to 4.5-win player

Risk: Moderate to High

MLB ETA: 2017

 

3. Alex Bregman, SS

Born: 03/30/94

Age: 22

Bats: R

Top CALs: Greg Garcia, Sergio Miranda,

Brandon Wikoff, David Fletcher, Jorge Flores

Height: 6-0

Weight: 180

Throws: R

Season

Age

LVL

PA

2B

3B

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BB%

K%

wRC+

2015

21

A

133

5

0

1

0.259

0.368

0.330

0.071

12.8%

9.8%

108

2015

21

A+

178

8

4

3

0.319

0.364

0.475

0.156

6.7%

9.6%

126

Background: For the first time in modern draft history three consecutive shortstops – Dansby Swanson, Bregman, and Brendan Rodgers – were taken with the opening three selections. Bregman, who was shoehorned between the Vanderbilt star and the prep middle infielder, was a consistent, dominant force in the middle of LSU’s lineup for the duration of collegiate career. The 6-foot, 180-pound Bregman was named 2013 National Freshman of the Year by Baseball America, hitting .369/.417/.546 with 18 doubles, seven triples, six homeruns, and 16 stolen bases (in 17 attempts). His production took a modest downturn the following season (.316/.397/.455), but rebounded nicely during his final campaign (.323/.412/.535). Bregman, a career .337/.409/.514 hitter at LSU, earned numerous other awards throughout his storied career, including: twice-recognized as an All-American (2013, 2015), First-Team All-SEC (2013, 2015), National Shortstop of the Year (2013), SEC All-Defensive Team (2015), ABCA Gold Glove Award Team, Golden Spike Award Finalist.

After Houston grabbed him with the second overall pick, the compensatory pick for failing to sign Brady Aiken as the first pick two years ago, the club sent him straight into full-season ball where he initially struggled – he batted .237/.308/.322 during his first 14 game – but managed to turn it around for the rest of his debut (.310/.381/.441).

 Projection: Here’s what I wrote prior to the draft:

“Bregman, who’s likely to move across the bag to second base in the pros, [has] one of the best collegiate hit tools in the class. Above-average speed with 15-stolen base potential, 10- to 12-homeruns, and slightly below-average walk rates. He’s a potential top-of-the-order hitter, not quite a leadoff bat but a solid #2 who could easily carve out a 12- to 15-year professional career. In terms of ceiling, think something like Adam Kennedy circa 2009 when he batted .289/.348/.410.”

Bregman had a solid, sometimes spectacular debut, but he clearly benefited from spending a portion of his year slugging at Lancaster – a place that would make Mario Mendoza – of Mendoza Line fame – look like a big league hitter. According to StatCorner, High Class A line from .317/.362/.472 to .303/.347/.431 once adjusted for the park.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2017

 

4. Joe Musgrove, RHP 

Born: 12/04/92

Age: 23

Bats: R

Top CALs: Marco Gonzalez, Hector Noesi,

P.J. Walters, Kender Villegas, Seth Maness

Height: 6-5

Weight: 255

Throws: R

YEAR

Age

Level

IP

W

L

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

LOB%

2013

20

R

32.7

1

3

4.41

2.57

8.27

1.10

20.1%

2.7%

0.28

56.7%

2014

21

A-

77.0

7

1

2.81

2.84

7.83

1.17

22.3%

3.3%

0.47

72.4%

2015

22

A

25.7

4

1

0.70

1.84

8.06

0.35

23.0%

1.0%

0.00

83.3%

2015

22

A+

30.0

4

0

2.40

2.08

12.90

0.30

36.4%

0.9%

0.60

78.0%

2015

22

AA

45.0

4

0

2.20

4.25

6.60

1.20

19.0%

3.5%

1.40

89.7%

Background: A part of the 10-player megadeal involving Brandon Lyon, J.A. Happ, and David Carpenter heading to Toronto and Musgrove, Francisco Cordero, Asher Wojciechowski, David Rollins, Carlos Perez, Kevin Comer, and Ben Francisco coming back to Houston. Musgrove, a former first round pick, 46th overall, in 2011, took a huge, unsuspected leap forward last season, going from a solid prospect to something much more promising. The big right-hander’s always shown an above-average or better feel for the strike zone – he’s averaged no worse than 2.1 walks per nine innings in any professional season – but his strikeout rate exploded to above-average territory last season. The 6-foot-5, 255-pound hurler was seemingly shot out of cannon last season, making five ridiculously dominant appearances in the Midwest League, another six near-perfect games with Lancaster, and eight promising contests with Corpus Christi. Musgrove finished the year by tallying a 1.82 ERA to go along with a laughably videogame-esque 99-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Projection: Not quite front-of-the-rotational caliber arm, but something along the lines as a very good #2/#3-type ceiling. Think John Lackey. Musgrove has an elite ability to limit base on balls, above-average groundball rates, and the ability to chew up plenty of innings thanks to his size.

Ceiling: 3.0- to 3.5-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2016

 

5. Kyle Tucker, RF

Born: 01/17/97

Age: 19

Bats: L

Top CALs: Jean Carlos Valdez, Zacrey Law,

Zoilo Almonte, Kurt Fleming, Wander Franco

Height: 6-4

Weight: 190

Throws: R

Season

Age

LVL

PA

2B

3B

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BB%

K%

wRC+

2015

18

R

121

9

0

1

0.286

0.322

0.393

0.107

5.8%

12.4%

93

2015

18

R

133

3

2

2

0.208

0.267

0.317

0.108

6.8%

10.5%

78

Background: Beginning the 2015 family draft theme, Houston grabbed Kyle, the younger brother of Preston Tucker, who happened to patrol the outfield for Houston as a rookie last season. The younger Tucker, the club’s second top five pick last season, hails from H.B. Plant HS, home to several top draft picks and former big leaguers including Wade Boggs, John Hudek, Jake Woodford, and Mychal Givens. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound outfielder, like fellow 2015 first round pick Daz Cameron, got off to a bit of a slow start, hitting .208/.267/.317 but rebounded nicely in the Appalachian League (.286/.322/.393). Overall, he batted .246/.294/.353 with 12 doubles, a pair of triples, and three homeruns.

Projection: Granted the sample size is rather limited – just 254 plate appearances – but Tucker showed an interesting talent package: decent-ish eye, a bit of power potential, solid hit tool, and speed.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

 

6. Michael Feliz, RHP

Born: 06/28/93

Age: 23

Bats: R

Top CALs: Aaron Blair, Chad Thall,

Andres Santiago, Nick Martinez, Jose Guzman

Height: 6-4

Weight: 225

Throws: R

YEAR

Age

Level

IP

W

L

ERA

FIP

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

LOB%

2013

19

A-

69.0

4

2

1.96

1.91

10.17

1.70

28.6%

4.8%

0.26

75.5%

2014

20

A

102.7

8

6

4.03

3.31

9.73

3.24

25.2%

8.4%

0.53

67.6%

2015

22

A+

32.7

1

1

4.41

3.84

9.09

3.31

22.9%

8.3%

0.55

60.7%

2015

22

AA

78.7

6

3

2.17

3.11

8.01

2.29

23.3%

6.6%

0.57

81.5%

Background: Just another one of the seemingly endless supply of power-armed right-handers developing in the Houston system. Feliz, a 6-foot-4, 225-pound right-hander, continued his dramatic rise in 2015, making two minor league stops – High Class A and Class AA – as well as a brief eight-inning stint with the big league club. Feliz’s journey looks more like a road trip across the western part of the state as he bounced from Lancaster, California, to Houston, Texas, to Corpus Christi, Texas, and finally back to Houston to close out a widely successful season. His combined minor league numbers from 2015: 111.1 innings, 103 punch outs, just 32 walks, and a 2.83 ERA. And while his big league numbers are a bit deceiving seven earned runs in eight innings his big mid 90s heater offers up plenty of optimism.

Projection: In last year’s book I wrote:

Feliz is nothing more than a wild card right now. He’s consistently missed a solid amount of bats while flashing decent control/command, but that all comes with the caveat that it’s been in the lowest levels of the minor leagues and against players more or less the same age.”

Well, just like Rocky Balboa taught us – sometimes wild cards pay off. The organization has capped his innings rather judiciously throughout his career, never allowing him to top more than 120 frames in a season, so he could be due for another bump up in the coming year. Very promising package: power arsenal, strong K-rates, above-average control, sturdy build, and dominating performances vs. older competition.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Risk: Low to Moderate

MLB ETA: 2016

 

7. Daz Cameron, CF

Born: 01/15/97

Age: 19

Bats: R

Top CALs: Marquise Cooper, Connor Lien,

Ty Morrison, Max Kepler, Cristian Toribio

Height: 6-2

Weight: 185

Throws: R

Season

Age

LVL

PA

2B

3B

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BB%

K%

wRC+

2015

18

R

124

2

3

0

0.272

0.372

0.350

0.078

12.9%

25.0%

106

2015

18

R

87

2

0

0

0.222

0.326

0.250

0.028

10.3%

20.7%

81

Background: The son of former All-Star center fielder Mike Cameron, Daz was widely rumored to be a potential Top 10, maybe even a Top 5 pick in last June’s draft, but tumbled all the way down to Houston with the 37th overall selection. The younger Cameron, who hails from Eagle’s Landing HS, home to former big league outfielder Matt Murton, initially got off to a slow start but batted .271/.378/.340 over his final 43 games between the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. And just on a side note: the elder Cameron totaled 46.5 wins above replacement (Baseball Reference’s version) throughout his career; let’s put that into perspective.

Sandy Koufax, 49.0 bWAR

Earl Averill, 48.0 bWAR

Jim Rice, 47.4 bWAR

Mike Cameron, 46.5 bWAR

Jimmy Rollins, 46.0 bWAR

Lou Brock, 45.2 bWAR

Rocky Colavito, 44.8 bWAR

Projection: Not quite as filled out as his All-Star – and borderline Hall of Fame – father, Daz showed above-average or better speed and a decent eye at the plate. There’s some concern about whether he’ll hit for much of an average. But as his body begins to mature he should be able to drive the ball with more consistency.

Ceiling: Too Soon to Tell

Risk: N/A

MLB ETA: N/A

 

8. Colin Moran, 3B

Born: 10/01/92

Age: 23

Bats: L

Top CALs: Cheslor Cuthbert, Nick Tanielu,

Adrian Cardenas, Brandon Drury, Taylor Green

Height: 6-4

Weight: 215

Throws: R

Season

Age

LVL

PA

2B

3B

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BB%

K%

wRC+

2013

20

A

175

8

1

4

0.299

0.354

0.442

0.143

8.6%

14.3%

127

2014

21

A+

392

21

0

5

0.294

0.342

0.393

0.100

7.1%

13.5%

110

2014

21

AA

123

6

0

2

0.304

0.350

0.411

0.107

7.3%

18.7%

114

2015

22

AA

417

25

2

9

0.306

0.381

0.459

0.153

10.3%

18.9%

136

Background: Moran’s name was famously floated as a potential under-slot target Houston was mulling about as the 2013 draft approached. And while the franchise opted to go with Mark Appel, Houston finally got its guy in a mid-season deal with the Marlins a year later. The former UNC star third baseman turned in another quietly strong performance in 2015, hitting .306/.381/.459 with 25 doubles, a pair of triples, and nine homeruns in Class AA – his second stop at the level. The lefty-swinging third baseman topped the league average production mark by 36%, his best professional showing. For his career, Moran is sporting a lifetime .300/.360/.427 triple-slash line, including a .305/.374/.448 mark in 124 games in the Texas League.

Projection: Here’s what I wrote prior to the draft in 2013:

“Moran will find his way into the top of the first round and profiles as a solid-average big league bat, capable of hitting .280/.380/.460-type hitter with 20+ homerun potential, though I’d be interested in how he handles fellow southpaws.”

And here’s what I wrote in last year’s book:

Solid, yet uninspiring numbers thus far for the then-22-year-old. The power has yet to develop for Moran, who’s slugged just 11 homeruns in his first 690 plate appearances. The hit tool and his glove are his best offerings; otherwise, he’s simply been average.”

OK, so obviously the power just hasn’t taken the step forward I expected. It happens. But the bat, patience, and glove should carry him all the way to becoming a league average big leaguer. Take this for what you will, but he came close to developing into the type of hitter I thought he would eventually become: I wrote in 2013 that he’d be a .280/.380/.460 hitter and last season he slugged .301/.381/.459. Not too shabby (even if I was wrong on the power).

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2016

 

9. Jon Kemmer, 1B  

Born: 11/17/90

Age: 25

Bats: L

Top CALs: Jordan Patterson, Steven Souza Jr.,

Scott Van Slyke, Patrick Kivlehan, Eric Thames

Height: 6-2

Weight: 220

Throws: L

Season

Age

LVL

PA

2B

3B

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BB%

K%

wRC+

2013

22

A-

225

7

1

4

0.221

0.304

0.327

0.106

7.6%

18.2%

95

2014

23

A

204

15

1

4

0.289

0.369

0.450

0.161

9.8%

19.1%

136

2014

23

A

204

15

1

4

0.289

0.369

0.450

0.161

9.8%

19.1%

136

2014

23

A+

159

10

1

12

0.294

0.314

0.608

0.314

2.5%

20.8%

130

2015

24

AA

425

28

4

18

0.327

0.414

0.574

0.247

10.6%

20.9%

174

Background: Trivia Time: Name the top two minor league bats according to Weighted Runs Created Plus with 425 or more plate appearances. The answer: Houston’s dynamic left-handed duo of A.J. Reed and Jon Kemmer, one a former Golden Spikes Award Winner and the latter a 21st round pick out of tiny Brewton-Parker College, home to just one MLB draft pick taken before the 12th round (Johnnie Wiggins). Kemmer looked every bit the part of late round, small college pick during his professional debut, hitting a paltry .221/.304/.327 in 65 games with the franchise’s short-season club. Since then, however, he’s done nothing but mash. A 6-foot-2, 220-pound corner outfielder/first baseman, Kemmer had a bit of coming out party in 2014, hitting a combined .291/.345/.523 with plenty of extra-base pop (25 doubles, two triples, and 16 homeruns) between Quad Cities and Lancaster. But, again, he was an older prospect at the time, 23, with some level of college. Last season, though, Kremmer took the expectations to entirely new level: spending the year in an age appropriate environment, Class AA, he slugged .327/.474/.547 with career highs in doubles (28), triples (4), homeruns (18), stolen bases (9), and walk rate (10.6%). Not too shabby…

Projection: On one hand you can’t entirely look past the fact that he was a late, late round pickup and he’s never really had a chance to face off against older competition. But on the other hand he’s been so damn productive. Above-average power but more of the gap-to-gap doubles kind, not over-the-fence taters. Solid-average plate discipline; the ability to handle both left- and right-handers; and reasonable contact rates. Add it all and it looks like a potential big league contributor, perhaps even as a league average regular. CAL offers up some hope as well, tying him to Steven Souza, Scott Van Slyke, and Eric Thames – all of whom have been league average offensive performers.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-wins above replacement

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2016

 

10. Derek Fisher, LF/CF

Born: 08/21/93

Age: 22

Bats: L

Top CALs: Marc Wik, Zoilo Almonte,

Dan Brewer, Dalton Pompey, Aaron Cunningham

Height: 6-1

Weight: 207

Throws: R

Season

Age

LVL

PA

2B

3B

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

ISO

BB%

K%

wRC+

2014

20

A-

172

4

3

2

0.303

0.378

0.408

0.105

9.3%

20.3%

133

2015

21

A

171

11

1

6

0.305

0.386

0.510

0.205

11.1%

21.6%

159

2015

21

A+

398

10

7

16

0.262

0.354

0.471

0.209

11.8%

23.9%

124

Background: The Lebanon, Pennsylvania, native looked like a potential breakout star heading into his junior season at Virginia. He was coming off of a year in which he showed plenty of power with an upward trend in plate discipline. And then the injury – a broken hamate – happened, one that typically saps a hitter’s power for quite some time. Fisher would eventual make it back for the university’s stretch run, but his overall numbers – .260/.316/.362 – took a massive hit. Nonetheless, the Astros grabbed the lefty-swinging outfielder with the 37th overall pick and pushed him into short-season ball. Last season, with the injury fully out of the way, Fisher’s power rebounded as he hit a combined .275/.364/.483 with 21 doubles, eight triples, 22 homeruns, and 31 stolen bases between Quad Cities and Lancaster.

Projection: I’ve always been a relatively big fan of Fisher’s, writing at the time of the draft:

“[He’s] never going to hit for average, probably peaking around .265 or .270 in the big leagues, but there’s 25-HR pop I his bat with at least a solid-average eye at the plate. Again, though, he’s not likely to show any significant pop until at least the end of 2014and more likely at some early point in 2015 [because of the hamate injury].”

The power came storming back last year – though playing a large part of his games in the Lancaster Bandbox thoroughly helps. Fisher ran more than at any other point in his career, likely the result of picking on less experience batteries. He’s not going to be a star by any stretch of the imagination, but there’s some starter potential here. He’s sort of like what Indians MiLB outfielder James Ramsey was supposed to be.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Risk: Moderate

MLB ETA: 2017

 

 

Author’s Note: All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.com.



About

After serving as a video scout/analyst for Baseball Info Solutions, Joe Werner began writing at his original site, ReleasePoints.com. He’s since transitioned into his current niche, prospect analysis, at ProspectDigest.com. He has been fortunate — and incredibly blessed — to have some of his work published and mentioned by several major media outlets, including: ESPN, Cleveland.com and the Baseball Research Journal. He can be reached at: JosephMWerner@yahoo.com.