2014 Draft Profile: Michael Cederoth

 Note: For additional draft profiles click here

School: San Diego State; Class: Junior

Position: RHP; B/T: R/R

Height: 6-6; Weight: 215 pounds

Previously Drafted: Arizona Diamondbacks, 41st round, 2011

 

Background: In one of the biggest mismanagements of the 2014 season, San Diego State head coach and Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn pushed the gangly 6-foot-6 right-hander into the bullpen this year, despite some curiously impressive numbers from the rotation in 2013.

In his lone year in the rotation last year, Cederoth fanned 109 hitters in 101 innings, among the best totals in college baseball. And while his overall production was mislabeled by an unsightly 4.25 ERA, his true performance, as measured by FIP, was a tidy 3.13.

For comparison’s sake, consider the following numbers from 2013:

 

Player IP FIP K/9 BB/9
Michael Cederoth 95.1 3.13 10.29 4.53
Tyler Beede 101.0 3.65 9.18 5.61

As I’ve previously discussed, Beede’s control/command has taken a tremendous step forward this season, so much so that he’s likely solidified himself as a Top 10 pick. As for Cederoth, well, Gwynn has opted to push the big right-hander back into the pen where he’s fanned 41 and walked 21 in his first 33.2 innings of work.

 

Projection: In terms of big league upside, Cederoth’s is right up there with some of the bigger names in the draft – Beede, Hoffman, Newcomb, etc…

The problem, which could actually be a plus in the long run, is that Cederoth has spent two seasons in the bullpen, thus limiting his experience to polish his secondary offerings but also keeping his arm relatively free from wear-and-tear.

Assuming whichever team that grabs him in the opening round converts him back into a starting pitcher – please let that happen – Cederoth could develop into an upper rotation-type arm, maybe peaking as a fringe #2 for a couple seasons, though the likelihood of this happening is a bit lower. He should have the floor along the lines of a Bud Norris-type. Again, it all comes down to lack of experience and development time.

If he remains in the pen, he could easily be a late-inning power arm, perhaps one of the top 20 in baseball.

 

Ceiling: 4.5-win player (starter); 2.5-win (reliever)

Floor: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Low (starter); Moderate to Above-Average (reliever)

Draft Projection: First Round

 

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About

After serving as a video scout/analyst for Baseball Info Solutions, Joe Werner began writing at his original site, ReleasePoints.com. He’s since transitioned into his current niche, prospect analysis, at ProspectDigest.com. He has been fortunate — and incredibly blessed — to have some of his work published and mentioned by several major media outlets, including: ESPN, Cleveland.com and the Baseball Research Journal. He can be reached at: JosephMWerner@yahoo.com.