2014 Los Angeles Dodgers Top 10 Prospects

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After a long delay – something measured in the months, not days –  I have a bit of an announcement to make: I will be publishing the first ever Prospect Digest Annual sometime late January/early February.

The Prospect Digest Annual will feature each organization’s Top 30 Prospects, ranking the farm systems, and several additional articles.

Until the big day happens, I will be posting each organization’s Top 10 Prospects, starting with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Enjoy!

For more Top Prospects click HERE

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1. Joc Pederson, Position: CF, Age: 22

Level

PA

wRC+

AVG

OBP

SLG

BB%

K%

ISO

2B

3B

HR

SB/AT

AA

519

155

.278

.381

.497

13.5%

22.0%

.219

24

3

22

31/39

Profile: Pederson proved that his showing in the California League in 2012 (.278/.381/.497) was no fluke. The former 11th rounder topped the Southern League offense by 55%, the third highest mark in the league. For his career, Pederson owns a .301/.394/.503 triple-slash line, with 70 doubles, nine triples, 51 homeruns, and 83 stolen bases.

Analysis: True six-tool potential: defense, arm, power, hit tool, speed, and plate discipline. Pederson has 30/30 ability combined with an above-average eye at the plate. Future All Star, especially if he sticks in center field. Shows a slight platoon against LHs.

Ceiling: 5.5- to 6.0-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Moderate to Above-Average

 

2. Corey Seager, Position: SS, Age: 20

Level

PA

wRC+

AVG

OBP

SLG

BB%

K%

ISO

2B

3B

HR

SB/AT

A

312

155

.309

.389

.529

10.9%

18.6%

.221

18

3

12

9/13

A+

114

46

.160

.246

.320

10.5%

27.2%

.160

2

1

4

1/1

Profile: The younger brother of Mariners’ third baseman Kyle Seager, Corey dominated low Class A pitching in 2013 while he topped the Midwest League’s offensive production by 55%. His numbers cratered upon his promotion to high Class A, in large part due to a fluky .179 BABIP.

Analysis: Twenty-five to 30-HR potential, above-average eye at the plate, decent contact rates, and a little bit of speed. If Seager can remain at shortstop, he could be one of the game’s better offensive performers at the position. He could be a potential .300/.380/.500-type hitter.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Moderate

 

3. Julio Urias, Position: LHP, Age: 17

Level

IP

ERA

SIERA

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

GB%

A

54.1

2.48

2.41

11.10

2.65

31.8%

7.6%

0.83

52.0%

Profile: There aren’t enough superlatives to bestow on Urias, who became the youngest player in low Class A in at least 20 years. The legendary Logan White discovered the younger southpaw on his scouting expedition surrounding Yasiel Puig in 2012. Some teams were reportedly scared off by rumors involving the southpaw’s left eye, which had a tumor removed when he was a child.

Analysis: Poise beyond his years. Urias did everything a successful pitchers needs to do: miss a ton of bats, above-average control, tremendous groundball rates, and dominance against much older competition. Small sample-size be damned, it’s a special left arm. Ace potential – if he can avoid that damn injury nexus. Hopefully, he can/will.

Ceiling: 6.5-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Low

 

4. Zach Lee, Position: RHP, Age: 22

Level

IP

ERA

SIERA

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

GB%

AA

142.2

3.22

3.34

8.26

2.21

22.5%

6.0%

0.82

45.0%

Profile: A massive over slot signing at the bottom of the first round in 2010, Lee, who agreed to a $5.25 million bonus, put together the finest season of his career, setting career bests in ERA (3.22), SIERA (3.34), strikeout (8.3 K/9) and walk (2.2 BB/9) rates.

Analysis: I was a big fan of Lee’s, even prior to his breakout 2013 season. Before the year, I wrote: “Not quite on the same level as some of the game’s top pitching prospects, Lee profiles as a good #2/#3, showing poise and pitchability beyond his years.” Still sticking by that.

Ceiling: 4.0- to 4.5-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Moderate to Above-Average

 

5. Matt Magill, Position: RHP, Age: 24

Level

IP

ERA

SIERA

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

GB%

AAA

85.2

3.47

3.58

10.61

5.25

27.9%

13.8%

0.74

40.5%

MLB

27.2

6.18

5.53

8.46

9.11

19.0%

20.4%

1.95

39.0%

Profile: A history of slightly below-average control finally boiled over for Magill in 2013. After averaging at least 3.4 walks per nine innings each year between 2009 and 2012, the former 31st round pick walked a total of 78 in 113.1 innings between the PCL and LA.

Analysis: Magill took a Trevor Bauer-like turn in 2013, going from below-average to horrifically poor control/command. Magill’s track record is more expansive, however, so he’s far more likely to rebound. If he does recover from the control issues, Magill could peak as a good #3/#4-type hurler. If he doesn’t, then the potential for a backend reliever is still available.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 3.0-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Low to Moderate

 

 6. Alexander Guerrero, Position: 2B, Age: 27

Level

PA

wRC+

AVG

OBP

SLG

BB%

K%

ISO

2B

3B

HR

SB/AT

Cuba

328

N/A

.290

.402

.576

11.9%

9.1%

.286

N/A

N/A

21

N/A

Profile: Signed to a four-year deal that could reach $32 million if all the incentives are reached, Guerrero immediately steps into the Dodgers’ starting second base spot.

Analysis: With money to burn, this hardly represents a risk for a unlimited checkbook of the Dodgers. That being said, I’m not sure Guerrero lives up to the lofty signing. Not entirely sold on the hit tool and he’s likely going to be hampered by low OBPs, but the power potential is interesting. Depending upon the defense, Guerrero could be a slightly better-than-average everyday player.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Moderate

 

7. Chris Anderson, Position: RHP, Age: 21

Level

IP

ERA

SIERA

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

GB%

A

46.0

1.96

3.61

9.78

4.70

26.9%

12.9%

0.00

36.9%

Profile: Anderson, the eighteenth pick in last June’s draft, showed progress in each of his three seasons at Jacksonville University. After struggling as a reliever during his freshman year (6.93 K/9 and 6.04 BB/9), he moved to the rotation the next season where he maintained a similar K-rate (7.03 K/9) while cutting nearly two walks off his BB-rate. Then, during his final season Anderson set career bests with 8.68 K/9 and 2.32 BB/9.

Analysis: During his pre-draft evaluation I wrote: “Something to be wary of: this is largely the first time in his career that he’s shown this particular combination of strikeouts and solid control/command. Still, though, Anderson has the ceiling of a mid-rotation-type, capable of chewing innings and posting an ERA in the upper 3.00s or lower 4.00s.”

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Low to Moderate

 

8. Ross Stripling, Position: RHP, Age: 24

Level

IP

ERA

SIERA

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

GB%

A+

94.0

2.94

3.09

9.09

2.94

25.4%

8.2%

0.27

53.9%

AA

33.2

2.78

3.19

7.95

1.82

21.4%

4.9%

0.38

50.9%

Profile: A rare mid-round senior draft pick that could develop into a big league everyday player. Stripling made the jump from the Pioneer League during his pro debut to a brief stint with Rancho Cucamonga before spending the majority of last season in Class AA.

Analysis: Won’t miss more than an average amount of bats in the big leagues, but Stripling is a groundball machine with impeccable control, two skills that could help him carve a long career as a backend starting pitcher.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Moderate to Above-Average

 

9. Tom Windle, Position: LHP, Age: 22

Level

IP

ERA

SIERA

K/9

BB/9

K%

BB%

HR/9

GB%

A

53.2

2.68

3.75

8.55

3.35

22.1%

8.7%

0.34

41.8%

Profile: The first player chosen from the Big Ten last June, Windle was the staff ace for the University of Minnesota, pacing the Golden Gophers in ERA (2.14), innings pitched (92.2), and strikeouts (86).

Analysis: Not a particularly big fan of Big Ten pitchers in general, nightmares of Alex Wimmers still haunt me. My pre-draft evaluation on Windle: “He’s got size and some projectability left. And his control took a pretty noticeable step forward this season. Plus, he’s tossed just 41.1 innings each of the two previous years, meaning far less wear-and-tear than the normal collegiate starter. You do have to wonder, however, if fatigue will eventually become a problem in the next year or two. He could be another low ceiling/high floor guy nabbed in the second and third rounds.”

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Moderate

 

10. Scott Schebler, Position: LF/RF, Age: 23

Level

PA

wRC+

AVG

OBP

SLG

BB%

K%

ISO

2B

3B

HR

SB/AT

A+

477

140

.296

.360

.581

6.6%

26.2%

.285

29

13

27

16/21

Profile: The third best hitter in the Cal League last season, Schebler hit .296/.360/.581 with 69 extra-base hits and topped the league average offense by 40%.

Analysis: Fluky. For the first two seasons of his professional career Schebler was the typical league average bat, showing below-average plate discipline, questionable contact skills, solid-average pop and some speed. Then, he transforms into a power-hitting, middle-of-the-order bat in the Cal League, one of the friendliest levels in the minors. Not sure if he’s even an everyday big league player.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Low to Moderate

 

 

 



About

After serving as a video scout/analyst for Baseball Info Solutions, Joe Werner began writing at his original site, ReleasePoints.com. He’s since transitioned into his current niche, prospect analysis, at ProspectDigest.com. He has been fortunate — and incredibly blessed — to have some of his work published and mentioned by several major media outlets, including: ESPN, Cleveland.com and the Baseball Research Journal. He can be reached at: JosephMWerner@yahoo.com.


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