College Draft Profile: Aaron Blair


Aaron Blair, RHP, Marshall University

Class: Junior; Height: 6-5; Weight: 220

Updated: 06/02/13

Blair, who was originally drafted in the 21st round in 2010 by Houston, suffered from a bit of bad luck last season, posting a near-4.00 ERA despite some promising peripherals (8.82 K/9 and 3.01 B/9). This season, however, the big right-hander has seen a noticeable uptick in his K-rate, to 9.22, as well as his BB-rate (3.95). But his ERA, 2.88, closely parallels his expected performance (3.15 FIP; according to 

Projection: There is some concern that while Blair’s ability to miss bats has improved during the past two seasons, his control has failed to do the same, basically remaining average-ish. He profiles as a decent option in a big league rotation with a ceiling as a #3 and a floor as a #5.

One incredible stat, according to CollegeSplits, is that only 2.4% of balls in play against RHs is pulled to third base, suggesting that RHs have trouble getting the bat head around on him.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

Likelihood of Reaching His Ceiling: Low to Moderate

Drafted: First to Second Round


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After serving as a video scout/analyst for Baseball Info Solutions, Joe Werner began writing at his original site, He’s since transitioned into his current niche, prospect analysis, at He has been fortunate — and incredibly blessed — to have some of his work published and mentioned by several major media outlets, including: ESPN, and the Baseball Research Journal. He can be reached at: